SRBK

AI MemoPost-earnings T+3

SR Bancorp

As of 2026-07-31/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-07-31 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Post-earnings earnings reset • 2026-07-28

Base target: $19 / p=50% prob

Biggest risk

Reported profitability declined materially, funding costs and borrowings increased, and equity fell year over year. The July 2026 earnings release does not provide formal forward guidance, and no post-print analyst revisions were identified.

Invalidation

Break below $16 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Loan and deposit growth, improved NIM, no charge-offs or non-performing loans reported, and continued capital returns provide a possible support case. However, analyst coverage and forward estimates are unavailable.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-07-31

Base target

$19

p=50%

Bull target

$22

p=20%

Bear target

$16

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Funding-cost and earnings-quality pressure
Balance-sheet growth supports core interest income
Loan and deposit growth, improved NIM, no charge-offs or non-performing loans reported, and continued capital returns provide a possible support case.

BearKey bullets

20.7% of deposits were uninsured at June 30, 2026, creating liquidity and funding sensitivity.
[#SEC-8K-2026-07-28]
A July 2026 third-party data-security incident exposed certain customer data; the company reported no material financial impact as of disclosure, but legal, regulatory, reputational, and financial risks remain.

WatchKey bullets

Post-earnings earnings reset

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $19 (p=50%)

Target spread vs base: +16% / -18%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $22 (p=20%)Base Target: $19 (p=50%)Bear Target: $16 (p=30%)

Commentary

Primary earnings evidence is strong, but coverage is low. No reliable post-release price-reaction series, analyst target changes, estimate revisions, or social-sentiment coverage was available; missing reaction data is not treated as positive evidence. The deterministic prior remains modestly negative, supporting a monitoring stance.

As of 2026-07-31 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Funding-cost and earnings-quality pressure
Balance-sheet growth supports core interest income

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$22 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$19 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$16 / p=30% prob

Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-07-28
Post-earnings earnings reset
FY26 Q4 net income fell to $0.94 million from $2.2 million year over year, while FY26 net income declined to $3.4 million from $5.1 million. The release is filed in the July 28 8-K. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28]
Prob 100.00% • Move -5.00% • Priced-in 70.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Funding-cost and earnings-quality pressure
2026-10-29
Loan growth and higher NIM were offset by a 13.5% increase in interest expense, additional borrowings, higher credit-loss provisions, and lower reported earnings. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28]
Prob 70% • Move -7% • Priced-in 55%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Balance-sheet growth supports core interest income
2027-07-31
Net loans increased 13.0%, deposits increased 9.5%, net interest income increased 7.8%, and net interest margin improved to 3.05%; continued benefit depends on controlling deposit and borrowing costs. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28]
Prob 45% • Move 8% • Priced-in 45%

Risks

20.7% of deposits were uninsured at June 30, 2026, creating liquidity and funding sensitivity. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28]
A July 2026 third-party data-security incident exposed certain customer data; the company reported no material financial impact as of disclosure, but legal, regulatory, reputational, and financial risks remain.
Credit-loss provisions increased with loan growth, and future asset quality could deteriorate.
Higher deposit and borrowing costs could pressure future margins.
Loan growth is partly funded by additional borrowings, increasing funding sensitivity.
Lower quarterly and full-year earnings versus the prior year.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
AFBI	Same-sector, similar-market-cap bank candidate; no comparative operating or valuation data is available in the packet.
FGBI	Same-sector, similar-market-cap bank candidate; no comparative operating or valuation data is available in the packet.
HYNE	Same-sector, similar-market-cap bank candidate; no comparative operating or valuation data is available in the packet.
LSBK	Same-sector, similar-market-cap bank candidate; no comparative operating or valuation data is available in the packet.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-07-31

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Symbol

Summary

AFBI

Same-sector, similar-market-cap bank candidate; no comparative operating or valuation data is available in the packet.

FGBI

Same-sector, similar-market-cap bank candidate; no comparative operating or valuation data is available in the packet.

HYNE

Same-sector, similar-market-cap bank candidate; no comparative operating or valuation data is available in the packet.

LSBK

Same-sector, similar-market-cap bank candidate; no comparative operating or valuation data is available in the packet.