AI Stock Memo: SIBN - SI-BONE - RankAlpha

SIBN

Rating buyAI Memo

SI-BONE

As of 2026-01-15/Confidence high

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

high

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

FY2025 Q4 results and management guidance • 2026-04-15

Expected move: +46%

Biggest risk

Slow commercial uptake, missed guidance, or unfavorable reimbursement/pricing pressure that keeps revenue growth below model and sustains multiple compression.

Invalidation

Break below $10 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Faster-than-expected adoption in key hospital systems, improving unit economics, and a near-term multiple re-rating driven by upward guidance and analyst upgrades push shares toward the upper-$20s/low-$30s.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

high

As of

2026-01-15

Base target

$26

p=65%

Bull target

$30

p=20%

Bear target

$10

p=15%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

FY2025 Q4 results and management guidance
Analyst target revisions / coverage updates
Commercial adoption / hospital rollout milestones

BearKey bullets

Disappointing quarterly guidance
Execution on salesforce expansion
Reimbursement or pricing pressure

WatchKey bullets

ANCHOR: {"price": 13.55, "timestamp_utc": "2026-01-14T00:00:00Z", "source": "rankalpha_api_adj_close"} ANALYST_TARGETS_REVIEWED: true Calculations and assumptions (explicit, anchor-based): - Anchor price = 13.55 (see ANCHOR line).

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

high

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $26 (p=65%)

Bull/Bear spread: +69% / -44%

Vs latest close: Bull +69% · Base +46% · Bear -44%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $30 (p=20%)Base Target: $26 (p=65%)Bear Target: $10 (p=15%)

Commentary

Market discourse is cautiously constructive: public aggregator and analyst pages show mid-$20s average targets implying upside from the anchor [#SERP-2]. Retail and coverage summaries reflect interest but note execution risk tied to rollout cadence [#SERP-6]. Overall tone: optimism anchored to adoption evidence, tempered by near-term execution uncertainty.

As of 2026-01-15 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Slow commercial uptake, missed guidance, or unfavorable reimbursement/pricing pressure that keeps revenue growth below model and sustains multiple compression.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

FY2025 Q4 results and management guidance
Analyst target revisions / coverage updates
Commercial adoption / hospital rollout milestones

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-15Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Below RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$23.23

Range (USD)

$17.87 - $32.00

Count

Query: SI-BONE Inc Common (SIBN) analyst consensus price target high low average

Si-Bone Inc Consensus Estimates (SIBN) - Investing.com NG
Search result #1
Si-Bone has a potential Upside of +20.98%, based on analysts' average price target. How Has Si-Bone Stock Performed Over the Past 52 Weeks? The Si-Bone 52 ...
Open source
SI-Bone Inc (SIBN) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and ... - TipRanks
Search result #2
The average price target is $24.60 with a high forecast of $27.00 and a low forecast of $23.00. The average price target represents a 17.82% change from the ...
Extracted: $24.60, $27.00, $23.00Open source
SI-BONE, Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #3
Evolution of the Average Target: SI-BONE, Inc. Evolution of the Target Price ... Low Price Target. 20.00USD. Spread / Lowest Target. +41.44%. Analyst ...
Extracted: $20.00Open source
SI-BONE, Inc. (SIBN) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #4
Find the latest SI-BONE, Inc. (SIBN) stock quote, history, news and other vital information to help you with your stock trading and investing.
Open source
SIBN - SI-BONE, Inc. (NasdaqGM) - Share Price and News - Fintel
Search result #5
Price Target. The average one-year price target for SI-BONE, Inc. is $26.41. The forecasts range from a low of $23.23 to a ...
Extracted: $26.41, $23.23Open source
SI-BONE INC (SIBN) Stock Price, Forecast & Analysis - Chartmill
Search result #6
SIBN financials. SIBN Forecast & Estimates. 15 analysts have analysed SIBN and the average price target is 26.41 USD. This implies a price increase of 29.44 ...
Extracted: $26.41Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$30 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$26 / p=65% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$10 / p=15% prob

Price $18 as of 2026-07-31

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 44%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +69% · Base +46% · Bear -44%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

FY2025 Q4 results and management guidance
2026-04-15
Quarterly release and updated FY2026 guidance can trigger re-rating if revenue or margin trends accelerate; estimated date used because no calendarized release published (short-horizon assumption) [#SERP-2].
Prob 80% • Move 30% • Priced-in 40%
Analyst target revisions / coverage updates
2026-04-15
Street target upgrades or downgrades following results or new commercial data can move the stock; public aggregator averages in the mid-$20s were reviewed as a sanity check [#SERP-2], [#SERP-6].
Prob 60% • Move 25% • Priced-in 35%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Commercial adoption / hospital rollout milestones
2027-01-15
Meaningful incremental hospital rollouts and faster procedure adoption increase revenue run-rate and support multiple expansion; assumed window end used for long-horizon scenario modeling (milestone completion by this date) [#SERP-6].
Prob 55% • Move 80% • Priced-in 20%

Risks

Disappointing quarterly guidance
Execution on salesforce expansion
Reimbursement or pricing pressure
Slower clinical/hospital adoption

Peers

Symbol	Summary
GMED	Globus Medical — established spine implant player with deep hospital relationships and execution scale.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: SI-BONE Inc Common (SIBN) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-15