AI Stock Memo: SHO - Sunstone Hotel Investors - RankAlpha

SHO

Rating buyAI Memo

Sunstone Hotel Investors

As of 2026-01-15/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Portfolio dispositions or acquisitions • 2026-04-15

Expected move: -11%

Biggest risk

Weaker RevPAR, higher financing costs, or asset sales at distressed prices compress NAV and dividend capacity, pushing shares materially below the anchor.

Invalidation

Break below $7 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Operational recovery plus accretive dispositions and stable or restored dividends drive NAV expansion and multiple re-rating toward top analyst targets.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-15

Base target

$10

p=55%

Bull target

$11

p=25%

Bear target

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q4 / FY2025 earnings (estimated)
Sustained leisure travel and ADR recovery
Operational recovery plus accretive dispositions and stable or restored dividends drive NAV expansion and multiple re-rating toward top analyst targets.

BearKey bullets

Asset-sale execution at discounted prices
Dividend reduction or suspension
Refinancing pressure from near-term maturities

WatchKey bullets

Portfolio dispositions or acquisitions

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $10 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: -1% / -37%

Vs latest close: Bull -1% · Base -11% · Bear -37%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $11 (p=25%)Base Target: $10 (p=55%)Bear Target: $7 (p=20%)

Commentary

Filings and press releases show management prioritizing asset sales and liability management while maintaining a small dividend, producing a cautious market tone [#10-K-2025-02-21][#8-K-2025-03-01]. Aggregated analyst targets cluster near the anchor, signaling limited upside absent operational beats [#SERP-3].

As of 2026-01-15 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Operational recovery plus accretive dispositions and stable or restored dividends drive NAV expansion and multiple re-rating toward top analyst targets.

Bear Case

Weaker RevPAR, higher financing costs, or asset sales at distressed prices compress NAV and dividend capacity, pushing shares materially below the anchor.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q4 / FY2025 earnings (estimated)
Sustained leisure travel and ADR recovery

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-15Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$9.96

Range (USD)

$8.08 - $20.86

Count

Query: Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc Common (SHO) analyst consensus price target high low average

Sunstone Hotel Investors (SHO) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #1
According to projections from 11 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Sunstone Hotel Investors is 9.90909, with a high estimate of 11 and a low ...
Open source
Sunstone Hotel Investors, Inc. (SHO) Stock Price, News, Quote ...
Search result #2
0. 50M. 100M. 150M. 200M. 250M. View More. Analyst Insights: SHO. View More. Analyst Price Targets. 9.00. 10.00 Average. 9.17 Current. 11.00 High. Analyst ...
Open source
Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc. Analyst Estimates - SHO - MarketWatch
Search result #3
Stock Price Targets. High, $11.00. Median, $10.00. Low, $9.00. Average, $9.91. Current Price, $9.13. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. SHO will report 2025 earnings on ...
Extracted: $11.00, $10.00, $9.00, $9.91, $9.13Open source
Sunstone Hotel Investors (SHO) Price Targets
Search result #4
The forecasts range from a low of $9.00 to a high of $11.00. The average price target represents an increase of 7.49% from the last closing price of $9.35.
Extracted: $9.00, $11.00, $9.35Open source
SHO / Sunstone Hotel Investors, Inc. (NYSE) - Forecast, Price Target ...
Search result #5
The average one-year price target for Sunstone Hotel Investors, Inc. is $9.83. The forecasts range from a low of $8.08 to a high of $11.55. Read More.
Extracted: $9.83, $8.08, $11.55Open source
SUNSTONE HOTEL INVESTORS INC (SHO) Stock Analyst Ratings
Search result #6
15 analysts have analysed SHO and the average price target is 10.01 USD. This implies a price increase of 6.31% is expected in the next year compared to the ...
Extracted: $10.01Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$11 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$10 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$7 / p=20% prob

Price $11 as of 2026-06-02

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 1%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull -1% · Base -11% · Bear -37%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-15
Portfolio dispositions or acquisitions
Announced asset sales or accretive acquisitions would change NAV per share; timing uncertain so date set to the reporting-window end when no firm announcement exists [#SERP-1].
Prob 30.00% • Move 15.00% • Priced-in 40.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q4 / FY2025 earnings (estimated)
2026-04-15
Quarterly results updating RevPAR, occupancy and guidance; market reaction likely if results diverge from consensus. Date is an estimate due to no IR disclosure [#SERP-3].
Prob 70% • Move 8% • Priced-in 50%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Sustained leisure travel and ADR recovery
2027-01-15
Multi-quarter RevPAR and ADR improvement across the portfolio would support cash flow and dividend capacity, driving re-rating over a one-year horizon [#SERP-7].
Prob 60% • Move 30% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Asset-sale execution at discounted prices
Dividend reduction or suspension
Refinancing pressure from near-term maturities
Slower-than-expected RevPAR recovery

Peers

Symbol	Summary
HST	Host Hotels & Resorts — large-cap full-service lodging REIT; useful benchmark for scale and balance-sheet dynamics.
PEB	Pebblebrook Hotel Trust — urban and resort exposure; comparable sensitivity to group/business travel.
RLJ	RLJ Lodging Trust — midscale/upscale portfolio; comp for operating leverage and market mix.
APLE	Apple Hospitality REIT — broad domestic full-service exposure; contrasts on dividend policy and operating margin resilience.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc Common (SHO) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-15