RUN

Rating buyAI Memo

Sunrun

As of 2026-01-27/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Federal/state solar tax-incentive clarity or extension • 2026-12-31

Expected move: +41%

Biggest risk

Bear case assumes macro-driven financing stress, slower customer adds, or adverse policy changes that compress lifetime value and force re-pricing of securitization assets.

Invalidation

Break below $14 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case assumes execution on storage scale, favorable incentive clarity, and sustained installation growth that pushes multiple expansion toward peers; revenue cadence and margin improvement validate higher comps.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-27

Base target

$22

p=55%

Bull target

$32

p=25%

Bear target

$14

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q4 / FY2025 earnings and guidance update
Storage and DER integration scale-up
Bull case assumes execution on storage scale, favorable incentive clarity, and sustained installation growth that pushes multiple expansion toward peers; revenue cadence and margin improvement validate higher comps.

BearKey bullets

Adverse changes to federal or state residential incentives
Execution delays on storage rollouts
Financing/securitization market tightening

WatchKey bullets

Federal/state solar tax-incentive clarity or extension

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $22 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: +98% / -12%

Vs latest close: Bull +98% · Base +41% · Bear -12%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $32 (p=25%)Base Target: $22 (p=55%)Bear Target: $14 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market consensus shows modest upside to the anchor with clustered analyst median near our base target; headlines emphasize policy and storage execution as primary drivers [#SERP-1]. Short-term tone is mixed as investors await earnings and guidance updates, while longer-term sentiment hinges on storage scale economics [#SERP-2].

As of 2026-01-27 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Bear case assumes macro-driven financing stress, slower customer adds, or adverse policy changes that compress lifetime value and force re-pricing of securitization assets.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q4 / FY2025 earnings and guidance update
Storage and DER integration scale-up

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-27Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$22.35

Range (USD)

$6.00 - $31.50

Count

Query: Sunrun Inc Common (RUN) analyst consensus price target high low average

Sunrun Inc. (RUN) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #1
FY25. 0. 200M. 400M. 600M. View More. Analyst Insights: RUN. View More. Analyst Price Targets. 14.00 Low. 22.18 Average. 20.01 Current. 27.00 High. Analyst ...
Open source
Sunrun (RUN) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and Analysts Predictions
Search result #2
The average price target is $23.69 with a high forecast of $30.00 and a low forecast of $19.00. The average price target represents a 21.49% change from the ...
Extracted: $23.69, $30.00, $19.00Open source
Sunrun Inc (RUN) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com
Search result #3
According to projections from 20 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Sunrun Inc is 22.19, with a high estimate of 27 and a low estimate of 14.
Open source
What is the current Price Target and Forecast for Sunrun (RUN)
Search result #4
The forecasts range from a low of $19.00 to a high of $30.00. The average price target represents an increase of 23.45% from the last closing price of $18.76.
Extracted: $19.00, $30.00, $18.76Open source
Sunrun Inc. Stock Price: Quote, Forecast, Splits & News (RUN)
Search result #5
The consensus among analysts points to a moderate upside potential of 29.4%, with the most optimistic price targets reaching $25-30, supported by increasing ...
Extracted: $25.00Open source
RUN - Sunrun Stock - Displayed [447 Analyst Price Targets]
Search result #6
Highest price target for RUN is $27, Lowest price target is $6, average price target is $20. Most recent stock forecast was given by STEPHEN BYRD from MORGAN ...
Extracted: $27.00, $6.00, $20.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$32 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$22 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$14 / p=20% prob

Price $16 as of 2026-05-28

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 12%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +98% · Base +41% · Bear -12%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-12-31
Federal/state solar tax-incentive clarity or extension
Any legislative or administrative extension/clarification of residential solar incentives would materially affect pipeline economics; date assumed conservatively at window end if not set by regulators (assumption noted) [#SERP-3].
Prob 30.00% • Move 20.00% • Priced-in 25.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q4 / FY2025 earnings and guidance update
2026-04-27
Quarterly results and updated FY guidance will drive near-term sentiment; market watches margin trajectory and installation growth vs. consensus [#SERP-1].
Prob 45% • Move 8% • Priced-in 60%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Storage and DER integration scale-up
2027-01-27
Execution on storage rollouts and distributed energy resource integrations could unlock higher lifetime value per customer and lift long-term multiple [#SERP-2].
Prob 50% • Move 35% • Priced-in 15%

Risks

Adverse changes to federal or state residential incentives
Execution delays on storage rollouts
Financing/securitization market tightening

Peers

Symbol	Summary
ENPH	Enphase — inverter and storage specialist; technology leader that influences unit economics across residential solar installers.
SPWR	SunPower — vertically integrated residential solar competitor with branded hardware and financing exposure.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Sunrun Inc Common (RUN) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-27

AI Stock Memo: RUN - Sunrun - RankAlpha