AI Stock Memo: RPM - RPM International - RankAlpha

RPM

Rating buyAI Memo

RPM International

As of 2026-02-06/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Capital allocation disclosure (buyback/dividend) — potential window • 2026-08-31

Expected move: +22%

Biggest risk

Margin deterioration from raw-material spikes, poor integration outcomes, or a cyclical demand slump would compress multiples and leave the stock trading near prior lows.

Invalidation

Break below $115 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Execution of pricing and cost synergies lifts margins above consensus, driving operating leverage and pushing the stock toward the analyst high; share buybacks or higher dividends would magnify returns.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-06

Base target

$128

p=60%

Bull target

$160

p=20%

Bear target

$115

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Upcoming quarterly results and guidance update
Margin expansion from integration of recent acquisitions
Execution of pricing and cost synergies lifts margins above consensus, driving operating leverage and pushing the stock toward the analyst high; share buybacks or higher dividends would magnify returns.

BearKey bullets

Cyclical industrial demand weakness
M&A integration execution risk
Raw-material cost volatility

WatchKey bullets

Capital allocation disclosure (buyback/dividend) — potential window

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $128 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +53% / +10%

Vs latest close: Bull +53% · Base +22% · Bear +10%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $160 (p=20%)Base Target: $128 (p=60%)Bear Target: $115 (p=20%)

Commentary

Analyst coverage skews moderately positive: the median target sits above the anchor, reflecting confidence in RPM's pricing and acquisition strategy. Near-term tone is event-driven and cautious; upside depends on demonstrable margin improvement.

As of 2026-02-06 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Margin deterioration from raw-material spikes, poor integration outcomes, or a cyclical demand slump would compress multiples and leave the stock trading near prior lows.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Upcoming quarterly results and guidance update
Margin expansion from integration of recent acquisitions

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-06Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$127.79

Range (USD)

$115.00 - $159.60

Count

Query: RPM International Inc Common (RPM) analyst consensus price target high low average

RPM International Inc. (RPM) Stock Price, News, Quote & ...
Search result #1
Find the latest RPM International Inc. (RPM) stock quote, history, news and other vital information to help you with your stock trading and investing.
Open source
RPM (RPM) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #2
According to projections from 14 analysts, the average 12-month price target for RPM is 127.36, with a high estimate of 149 and a low estimate of 115.
Open source
RPM International Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #3
Spread / Average Target. +14.83%. High Price Target. 149.00USD. Spread / Highest target. +34.34%. Low Price Target. 115.00USD. Spread / Lowest Target. +3.69% ...
Extracted: $149.00, $115.00Open source
RPM / RPM International Inc. (NYSE) - Forecast, Price Target ... - Fintel
Search result #4
The average one-year price target for RPM International Inc. is $134.04. The forecasts range from a low of $120.19 to a high of $159.60. Read More.
Extracted: $134.04, $120.19, $159.60Open source
RPM International Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Benzinga
Search result #5
RPM International Inc has a consensus price target of $127.79 based on the ratings of 14 analysts. The high is $150 issued by Seaport Global on October 3, ...
Extracted: $127.79, $150.00Open source
RPM International (RPM) Stock Forecast: Analyst Ratings ...
Search result #6
What is the analyst price target for RPM International (RPM)?. Wall Street analysts have set a price target of $126.08, reflecting a 0.00% increase from the ...
Extracted: $126.08Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$160 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$128 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$115 / p=20% prob

Price $105 as of 2026-06-01

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 10%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +53% · Base +22% · Bear +10%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-08-31
Capital allocation disclosure (buyback/dividend) — potential window
Company could announce accelerated buybacks or a special dividend; date is not disclosed so using conservative end-of-window assumption for planning purposes.
Prob 35.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 20.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Upcoming quarterly results and guidance update
2026-05-07
Next quarterly report may force revisions to FY guidance and analyst models; consensus targets suggest upside vs. current price and could trigger re-rating if results beat [#SERP-2], but downside risk exists if margins soften [#SERP-3].
Prob 55% • Move 8% • Priced-in 30%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Margin expansion from integration of recent acquisitions
2027-02-06
Operational synergies and pricing actions from recent M&A could drive above-consensus margin improvement over the year, supporting valuation nearer analyst median/high if realized [#SERP-4].
Prob 60% • Move 20% • Priced-in 40%

Risks

Cyclical industrial demand weakness
M&A integration execution risk
Raw-material cost volatility

Peers

Symbol	Summary
SHW	Global coatings leader with higher retail exposure; useful comparison on pricing power and margin resilience.
PPG	Large diversified paints and coatings peer; comparable end-market cyclicality and scale benefits.
AXTA	Specialty coatings peer with exposure to industrial channels; helpful for benchmarking product margin trends.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: RPM International Inc Common (RPM) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-06