RKT

AI Memo

Rocket Companies

As of 2026-01-16/Confidence medium/Horizon 3m

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

Key catalyst

Q4 / FY2025 Earnings Release (estimated) • 2026-02-25

Expected move: +53%

Biggest risk

Persistently elevated rates or a housing-demand shock compresses originations and servicing valuation, forces MSR mark adjustments and raises credit costs, pushing shares toward the analyst low.

Invalidation

Break below $12 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

A sustained drop in mortgage rates and a pickup in purchase originations increases volumes and MSR cashflows; combined with tight cost control and successful ancillary product attachment, this supports multiple expansion toward the analyst high.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-16

Base target

$22

p=60%

Bull target

$26

p=20%

Bear target

$12

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Refinance Activity / Interest-Rate Volatility
Servicing Portfolio / Capital Allocation Execution
A sustained drop in mortgage rates and a pickup in purchase originations increases volumes and MSR cashflows; combined with tight cost control and successful ancillary product attachment, this supports multiple expansion toward the analyst high.

BearKey bullets

Higher-for-longer mortgage rates reducing originations
MSR mark-to-market losses or servicing-margin compression
Regulatory or litigation developments affecting origination/servicing

WatchKey bullets

Q4 / FY2025 Earnings Release (estimated)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $22 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +84% / -16%

Vs latest close: Bull +84% · Base +53% · Bear -16%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $26 (p=20%)Base Target: $22 (p=60%)Bear Target: $12 (p=20%)

Commentary

Sentiment is mixed-to-cautious: analyst 12-month targets cluster around the low-to-mid $20s with highs near $25–$26 and lows near the low-teens, reflecting dispersion on rates and credit [#SERP-2][#SERP-5]. The anchor (23.76) is modestly above the median, so positioning is neutral ahead of near-term earnings and rate updates.

As of 2026-01-16 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Persistently elevated rates or a housing-demand shock compresses originations and servicing valuation, forces MSR mark adjustments and raises credit costs, pushing shares toward the analyst low.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Refinance Activity / Interest-Rate Volatility
Servicing Portfolio / Capital Allocation Execution

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-16Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$21.84

Range (USD)

$12.00 - $26.25

Count

Query: Rocket Companies Inc Class A Common (RKT) analyst consensus price target high low average

Rocket Companies, Inc. (RKT) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #1
Find the latest Rocket Companies, Inc. (RKT) stock quote, history, news and other vital information to help you with your stock trading and investing.
Open source
Rocket Cos. Inc. Analyst Estimates - RKT - MarketWatch
Search result #2
Stock Price Targets. High, $25.00. Median, $24.00. Low, $17.00. Average, $22.00. Current Price, $22.67. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. RKT will report 2025 earnings ...
Extracted: $25.00, $24.00, $17.00, $22.00, $22.67Open source
Rocket Companies Inc (RKT) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #3
According to projections from 14 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Rocket is 21.57143, with a high estimate of 25 and a low estimate of 16.
Open source
RKT Stock Forecast: Analyst Ratings, Predictions & Price Target 2026
Search result #4
13 analysts have given RKT a consensus rating of Hold while the RKT price prediction in 2026 is $20.85.
Extracted: $20.85Open source
Rocket Companies (RKT) Price Targets - Zacks Investment Research
Search result #5
The forecasts range from a low of $17.00 to a high of $25.00. The average price target represents a decline of 6.14% from the last closing price of $23.44.
Extracted: $17.00, $25.00, $23.44Open source
RKT Stock Forecast - Rocket Companies Inc - Alpha Spread
Search result #6
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for RKT is 21.68 USD with a low forecast of 17.17 USD and a high forecast of 26.25 USD.
Extracted: $21.68, $17.17, $26.25Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$26 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$22 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$12 / p=20% prob

Price $14 as of 2026-05-27

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 16%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +84% · Base +53% · Bear -16%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-02-25
Q4 / FY2025 Earnings Release (estimated)
Quarterly results and management commentary could reprice the stock around mortgage origination margins and servicing trends; exact date not disclosed publicly so the expected_date uses a conservative assumed reporting window end and is flagged as an estimate [#SERP-2].
Prob 70.00% • Move 8.00% • Priced-in 45.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Refinance Activity / Interest-Rate Volatility
2026-04-16
Near-term swings in mortgage rates and refinance demand could materially reduce volumes and EPS; market consensus targets show variance consistent with rate sensitivity [#SERP-5], [#SERP-8].
Prob 50% • Move -12% • Priced-in 60%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Servicing Portfolio / Capital Allocation Execution
2027-01-16
Execution on servicing cashflows, buybacks, or strategic growth (long horizon) could re-rate the company if realized over the next year; timing set to one year as a conservative long-horizon estimate [#SERP-2].
Prob 30% • Move 25% • Priced-in 25%

Risks

Higher-for-longer mortgage rates reducing originations
MSR mark-to-market losses or servicing-margin compression
Regulatory or litigation developments affecting origination/servicing

Peers

Symbol	Summary
Z	Zillow Group — adjacent home transaction and mortgage distribution channels; provides insight into retail mortgage demand trends.
PMT	PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust — exposure to mortgage credit and servicing economics, useful for capital/servicing comparisons.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Rocket Companies Inc Class A Common (RKT) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-16

AI Stock Memo: RKT - Rocket Companies - RankAlpha