AI Stock Memo: RDVT - Red Violet - RankAlpha

RDVT

TentativeAI Memo

Red Violet

As of 2026-05-31/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-31 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Report quality notice

Forward visibility is limited, so this memo should be read as a lower-conviction monitoring view rather than a catalyst-driven call.; no forward-looking company-specific catalyst is supported by primary-source evidence; peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q1 2026 print confirmed record growth • 2026-05-06

Expected move: +0%

Biggest risk

The deterministic prior is negative across 5-day to 120-day horizons, coverage is low, the peer set is loose, and the packet does not include a confirmed analyst revision wave. That makes the setup vulnerable if the market treats Q1 as already priced in or if onboarding momentum fades.

Invalidation

Break below $44 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Q1 primary-source evidence supports a constructive monitoring view: revenue was reported at $25.8M, the print was framed as strong, and customer onboarding language was positive. The bull case requires that this strength persist in later filings rather than relying on a new unsupported forward catalyst.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-31

Base target

$57

p=50%

Bull target

$69

p=20%

Bear target

$44

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Near-term pullback risk without analyst follow-through
Next filings need to confirm onboarding durability
Q1 primary-source evidence supports a constructive monitoring view: revenue was reported at $25.8M, the print was framed as strong, and customer onboarding language was positive.

BearKey bullets

Forward visibility is limited; the evidence set supports a reported Q1 event but not a strong forward catalyst-driven thesis.
Low-coverage software names can reprice quickly if customer onboarding, retention, or profitability momentum disappoints.
No confirmed post-print analyst estimate revisions or target changes are available in the packet.

WatchKey bullets

Q1 2026 print confirmed record growth

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $57 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +21% / -23%

Vs latest close: Bull +21% · Base +0% · Bear -23%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $69 (p=20%)Base Target: $57 (p=50%)Bear Target: $44 (p=30%)

Commentary

The primary-source evidence is positive on the Q1 reported event, but the quality gate correctly frames this as tentative. Recent news coverage is sparse, social context is unavailable, analyst revision evidence is missing, and the deterministic prior is negative, so the memo should be read as a lower-conviction monitoring view rather than a catalyst-driven long call.

As of 2026-05-31 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Near-term pullback risk without analyst follow-through
Next filings need to confirm onboarding durability

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$69 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$57 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$44 / p=30% prob

Price $57 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 0%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +21% · Base +0% · Bear -23%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-06
Q1 2026 print confirmed record growth
The May 6 earnings release reported Q1 revenue of $25.8M, up 17%, and the 8-K confirms the company furnished the earnings release and conference-call transcript for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 [#8-K-2026-05-07]. This is confirmed primary evidence, but it is already a reported event rather than a fresh forward catalyst.
Prob 85.00% • Move 3.50% • Priced-in 70.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Near-term pullback risk without analyst follow-through
2026-08-29
The packet shows only a single visible median target estimate and no confirmed post-print estimate-revision wave, so near-term upside depends on follow-through that is not yet supported by the evidence set.
Prob 60% • Move -3% • Priced-in 65%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Next filings need to confirm onboarding durability
2027-05-31
Management's Q1 commentary supports monitoring customer onboarding and normalized growth, but the evidence packet does not provide a confirmed forward-looking company event beyond future reporting. Treat the next filings as a durability check rather than a catalyst-driven call [#10-Q-2026-05-06].
Prob 50% • Move 2% • Priced-in 55%

Risks

Forward visibility is limited; the evidence set supports a reported Q1 event but not a strong forward catalyst-driven thesis.
Low-coverage software names can reprice quickly if customer onboarding, retention, or profitability momentum disappoints.
No confirmed post-print analyst estimate revisions or target changes are available in the packet.
Reported growth partly benefits from a $1.2M one-time prior-year revenue item, so headline YoY comparisons require normalization.
The peer set is based mainly on same-sector and similar-market-cap screens, with limited direct operating comparability.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
MITK	Identity and verification software exposure makes this the closest listed peer candidate in the packet, but it is still not a clean product-level comparable.
CGNT	Enterprise analytics and investigation software creates some overlap in data-driven decisioning, though end markets and use cases differ materially.
DSP	Included only as a same-sector, similar-market-cap reference; adtech exposure makes it a loose comparator rather than a direct operating peer.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-31