AI Stock Memo: QCRH - QCR - RankAlpha

QCRH

AI MemoPost-earnings T+1

QCR

As of 2026-07-23/Post-earnings T+1/Confidence high

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-07-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

high

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q2 earnings follow-through supported by record EPS • 2026-10-21

Expected move: +6%

Biggest risk

The print may be difficult to sustain if capital-markets and LIHTC-related contributions normalize, loan growth slows, or margin and efficiency improvements reverse. No post-print analyst revisions, consensus surprise comparison, or target changes are available.

Invalidation

Break below $87 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The Q2 release indicates broad operating momentum: record GAAP EPS, loan growth, improved efficiency, stronger asset quality, wealth-management expansion, capital-markets recovery, and shareholder repurchases. The $102 median analyst target implies modest upside from the $96.29 anchor, although target coverage is sparse.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

high

As of

2026-07-23

Base target

$102

p=50%

Bull target

$113

p=25%

Bear target

$87

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Capital-return and tangible-book-value support
Loan growth, asset quality, and diversified fee expansion
The Q2 release indicates broad operating momentum: record GAAP EPS, loan growth, improved efficiency, stronger asset quality, wealth-management expansion, capital-markets recovery, and shareholder repurchases.

BearKey bullets

Downside risk increases if loan growth, margin expansion, efficiency gains, or asset-quality improvement fail to persist.
Earnings benefited from significant LIHTC and capital-markets activity that may be volatile or non-recurring.
No reliable post-earnings consensus comparison, analyst revision, or target-change data is available.

WatchKey bullets

Q2 earnings follow-through supported by record EPS

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

high

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+1

Base case: $102 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +17% / -10%

Vs latest close: Bull +17% · Base +6% · Bear -10%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $113 (p=25%)Base Target: $102 (p=50%)Bear Target: $87 (p=25%)

Commentary

Primary-source earnings tone is positive, but immediate post-print price reaction, analyst revisions, options data, short interest, and social coverage are unavailable. The report is therefore a tentative positive monitoring view rather than a high-conviction re-rating thesis.

As of 2026-07-23 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Capital-return and tangible-book-value support
Loan growth, asset quality, and diversified fee expansion

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$113 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$102 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$87 / p=25% prob

Price $96 as of 2026-07-22

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 6%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +17% · Base +6% · Bear -10%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

65.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-10-21
Q2 earnings follow-through supported by record EPS
Q2 2026 net income was $36.3 million and diluted EPS was $2.19, up 28% year over year, with 1.51% ROAA and improved operating leverage. The company cited higher net interest income, substantial loan production, rebounding capital-markets revenue, and wealth-management growth. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-22]
Prob 68.00% • Move 7.30% • Priced-in 55.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Capital-return and tangible-book-value support
2027-07-23
QCRH repurchased 149,639 shares at an average price of $90.01 during Q2, while tangible book value per share increased $2.17, or 15% annualized on a linked-quarter basis. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-22]
Prob 65% • Move 3% • Priced-in 60%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Loan growth, asset quality, and diversified fee expansion
2027-07-23
Gross loan growth was 12% annualized excluding specified runoff and transactions; criticized loans reached their lowest level since Q4 2019; LIHTC revenue rose 69% year over year and wealth-management assets under management increased 9%. Sustaining these trends could support earnings and valuation, but forward visibility remains limited.
Prob 58% • Move 12% • Priced-in 45%

Risks

Downside risk increases if loan growth, margin expansion, efficiency gains, or asset-quality improvement fail to persist.
Earnings benefited from significant LIHTC and capital-markets activity that may be volatile or non-recurring.
No reliable post-earnings consensus comparison, analyst revision, or target-change data is available.
The peer set is limited to loose same-sector market-cap candidates, weakening relative-valuation confidence.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
BFC	Same-sector, similar-market-cap bank candidate; the packet provides no comparative operating metrics, so this is a loose valuation-monitoring peer.
CNOB	Same-sector, similar-market-cap bank candidate; no packet evidence supports a direct earnings or quality comparison.
LKFN	Same-sector, similar-market-cap bank candidate; useful for regional-bank monitoring, but comparative fundamentals are unavailable.
OBK	Same-sector, similar-market-cap bank candidate; peer evidence is limited to sector and market-cap proximity.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-07-23