PRGO
AI MemoPerrigo
As of 2026-11-05/Confidence medium
Data freshness
AI Memo
As of 2026-11-05 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Decision Panel
Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.
Action
—
Confidence
medium
Horizon
—
Key catalyst
Infant Formula sale and portfolio simplification • 2027-06-30
Base target: $17 / p=50% prob
Biggest risk
Sales of $989 million were below Investing.com's roughly $1 billion consensus figure, and the lower Core outlook, declining organic sales and weaker margins challenge the turnaround. A reliable post-print analyst target or estimate-revision series was unavailable. [#SEC-8K-2026-11-04]
Invalidation
Break below $12 or thesis failure.
What would change my mind?
Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.60 exceeded the $0.55 estimate cited by Investing.com, while store-brand share gains and a simpler portfolio could eventually improve returns. The sale's expected benefits are not yet realized. [#SEC-8K-2026-11-04]
Research note
Recommendation
—
Confidence
medium
As of
2026-11-05
Base target
$17
p=50%
Bull target
$19
p=25%
Bear target
$12
p=25%
Key bullets
Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items
BullKey bullets
- Lower core outlook offsets the quarterly EPS beat
- Test whether share gains convert into core growth and margin recovery
- Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.60 exceeded the $0.55 estimate cited by Investing.com, while store-brand share gains and a simpler portfolio could eventually improve returns.
BearKey bullets
- At September 26, cash was $437 million against $3.3 billion of total debt; the outlook assumes net leverage of approximately 4.0 times adjusted EBITDA.
- [#SEC-8K-2026-11-04]
- Q3 Core adjusted gross margin fell 140 basis points and adjusted operating margin fell 210 basis points year over year.
WatchKey bullets
- Infant Formula sale and portfolio simplification
Summary
High-level snapshot
Recommendation
-
Model confidence
medium
Timeframe
-
Asset
Equity
Trigger
-
Base case: $17 (p=50%)
Target spread vs base: +15% / -27%
Scenario probabilities
Bull Target: $19 (p=25%)Base Target: $17 (p=50%)Bear Target: $12 (p=25%)
Commentary
The earnings evidence is mixed: an adjusted-EPS beat versus one cited consensus estimate, but a sales miss versus that source and a reduced Core outlook. Early premarket coverage reported a small gain; the packet supplies a November 4 adjusted-close anchor of $15.83, but not a verified comparable prior close, so a full-session reaction is not asserted. No reliable post-print analyst target revisions were found. Social, options, short-interest and employee metrics were unavailable; the zero placeholders in sentiment are not observations.
As of 2026-11-05 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology
Analyst Summary
Thesis highlights from the latest analysis
Bull Case
Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.60 exceeded the $0.55 estimate cited by Investing.com, while store-brand share gains and a simpler portfolio could eventually improve returns. The sale's expected benefits are not yet realized. [#SEC-8K-2026-11-04]
Bear Case
Sales of $989 million were below Investing.com's roughly $1 billion consensus figure, and the lower Core outlook, declining organic sales and weaker margins challenge the turnaround. A reliable post-print analyst target or estimate-revision series was unavailable. [#SEC-8K-2026-11-04]
Drivers
Scannable catalysts and supporting factors
- Lower core outlook offsets the quarterly EPS beat
- Test whether share gains convert into core growth and margin recovery
Scenarios
Bull Target (Scenario probability)
$19 / p=25% prob
Base Target (Scenario probability)
$17 / p=50% prob
Bear Target (Scenario probability)
$12 / p=25% prob
Analysis 2026-11-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.
Sentiment & Exposure
News Sentiment (30d)
-0.20
Social Sentiment (7d)
0.00
Events
Other notable items detected
- EVENT2027-06-30Infant Formula sale and portfolio simplificationPerrigo announced an agreement to sell Infant Formula for $40 million upfront and up to $135 million contingent on sales milestones through 2030. Management expects lower future capital spending and a better margin profile, but closing and earnouts remain uncertain; it also expects a $275 million–$375 million Q4 held-for-sale impairment. The Oral Care strategic review remains open. [#8-K-2026-11-04] [#SEC-8K-2026-11-04]Prob 70.00% • Move 5.00% • Priced-in 55.00%
Short-term Catalysts
Next few weeks
- Lower core outlook offsets the quarterly EPS beat2026-12-31Perrigo reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.60 and sales of $989 million. Its revised 2026 Core adjusted EPS range is $2.15–$2.35, down from $2.25–$2.55; Core organic sales are now expected to decline 3.8%–2.7%. Management cited cautious retailer inventories and European softness. [#8-K-2026-11-04] [#SEC-8K-2026-11-04]Prob 85% • Move -4% • Priced-in 60%
Long-term Catalysts
Months to a year
- Test whether share gains convert into core growth and margin recovery2027-12-31Management reported share gains in U.S. store-brand OTC and key European brands, but Q3 Core organic sales fell 1.1% and Core adjusted operating margin declined 210 basis points. Sustained demand and margin recovery—not share gains alone—would be needed to support a stronger thesis. [#SEC-8K-2026-11-04]Prob 45% • Move 10% • Priced-in 30%
Risks
- At September 26, cash was $437 million against $3.3 billion of total debt; the outlook assumes net leverage of approximately 4.0 times adjusted EBITDA. [#SEC-8K-2026-11-04]
- Q3 Core adjusted gross margin fell 140 basis points and adjusted operating margin fell 210 basis points year over year. [#SEC-8K-2026-11-04]
- Retailer inventory caution ahead of cough-and-cold season and continued European consumer softness contributed to lower 2026 Core guidance. [#SEC-8K-2026-11-04]
- The Infant Formula sale has closing and contingent-payment risk, and Perrigo expects a $275 million–$375 million held-for-sale impairment. [#SEC-8K-2026-11-04]
Peers
No peer data
Sources
Internal and external references used in this analysis
- Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
- Analysis date: 2026-11-05