PHIO

Rating neutralTentativeAI MemoPost-earnings T+3

Phio

As of 2026-05-16/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Report quality notice

Coverage is limited for this name. This memo is usable, but confidence is lower and evidence depth is thinner than a standard report.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q2 2026 FDA interaction on PH-762 next-step study design • 2026-06-30

Expected move: +3%

Biggest risk

Fresh post-print analyst revision signal appears unavailable, and there is still no strong external validation of the May 7 claims beyond company disclosures. The company remains a thinly covered, single-lead-program microcap where final data analysis, FDA feedback, manufacturing execution, toxicology progress, and future financing can each swing the equity sharply.

Invalidation

Break below $0 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The post-earnings company update improved the operating narrative versus the prior baseline: PH-762 dose escalation is complete, management highlighted favorable safety/pathology data, FDA interaction is targeted in Q2 2026, and longer-horizon toxicology and cGMP supply work is now explicitly part of the advancement path.

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-16

Base target

p=45%

Bull target

p=25%

Bear target

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

PH-762 final data digestion and advancement package
IND-enabling toxicology and cGMP supply package for PH-762
The post-earnings company update improved the operating narrative versus the prior baseline: PH-762 dose escalation is complete, management highlighted favorable safety/pathology data, FDA interaction is targeted in Q2 2026, and longer-horizon toxicology and cGMP supply work is now explicitly part of the advancement path.

BearKey bullets

Cash declined to about $17.0 million by March 31, 2026, and the April 2026 ATM creates additional dilution risk even if it extends flexibility.
Coverage is thin and peer fit is loose, limiting outside confirmation and increasing volatility around company-issued updates.
Final PH-762 data are still being formally analyzed, so the current efficacy/safety framing could change as the dataset is finalized.

WatchKey bullets

Q2 2026 FDA interaction on PH-762 next-step study design

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $1 (p=45%)

Bull/Bear spread: +79% / -60%

Vs latest close: Bull +79% · Base +3% · Bear -60%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $2 (p=25%)Base Target: $1 (p=45%)Bear Target: $0 (p=30%)

Commentary

This was a T+3 earnings follow-up, but the company-source earnings release actually arrived on May 7, 2026 via the 8-K and attached press release, while the queue label referenced May 13, 2026 [#8-K-2026-05-07]. The new evidence is directionally better than the prior baseline because management moved PH-762 from trial enrollment/tolerability monitoring to completed dose escalation, targeted Q2 FDA interaction, and identified toxicology and cGMP supply work, but conviction should stay moderate because immediate post-print analyst revisions were not confirmed and trustworthy consensus-surprise data were unavailable. With the anchor price still only $1.07 on May 15, 2026, the market is still treating PHIO as a highly speculative, financing-sensitive microcap rather than fully capitalizing the development update.

As of 2026-05-16 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

PH-762 final data digestion and advancement package
IND-enabling toxicology and cGMP supply package for PH-762

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$2 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$1 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$0 / p=30% prob

Price $1 as of 2026-06-02

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 3%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +79% · Base +3% · Bear -60%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-06-30
Q2 2026 FDA interaction on PH-762 next-step study design
Phio said the Phase 1b clinical phase for PH-762 is complete, final data are being analyzed, and an FDA submission to seek guidance on next-step clinical study design is targeted for Q2 2026; this is the clearest near-term post-earnings inflection from the May 7, 2026 update [#PR-2026-05-07] [#8-K-2026-05-07] [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
Prob 60.00% • Move 55.00% • Priced-in 35.00%
EVENT2027-06-30
Runway and dilution monitor tied to ATM capacity and rising R&D spend
Cash was about $17.0 million at March 31, 2026 versus $21.0 million at December 31, 2025, R&D expense rose to $2.8 million, management said runway extends into H1 2027, and the company added an ATM for up to $6.36 million in April 2026; that supports operations but keeps dilution and financing timing central to the thesis [#PR-2026-05-07] [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
Prob 80.00% • Move 35.00% • Priced-in 60.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

PH-762 final data digestion and advancement package
2026-08-31
Management disclosed favorable safety/pathology framing, 22 enrolled patients, and a reported 65% overall response rate in cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma while noting final study data are still under formal analysis; confirmation of durability, cohort detail, and the resulting development path could materially re-rate or de-rate the single-asset story [#PR-2026-05-07] [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
Prob 45% • Move 70% • Priced-in 30%
IND-enabling toxicology and cGMP supply package for PH-762
2027-03-31
The 10-Q says Phio entered a December 2025 development-services agreement for a nonclinical toxicology study required before a registration-purpose human clinical trial and a March 2026 cGMP drug-product manufacturing services agreement for clinical supplies; successful execution would be a distinct long-horizon program catalyst beyond the initial FDA interface [#10-Q-2026-05-07] [#PR-2026-05-07].
Prob 40% • Move 45% • Priced-in 25%

Risks

Cash declined to about $17.0 million by March 31, 2026, and the April 2026 ATM creates additional dilution risk even if it extends flexibility.
Coverage is thin and peer fit is loose, limiting outside confirmation and increasing volatility around company-issued updates.
Final PH-762 data are still being formally analyzed, so the current efficacy/safety framing could change as the dataset is finalized.
R&D expense rose sharply year over year as PH-762 advances, increasing pressure on runway if toxicology, manufacturing, or clinical-design timelines slip.
The company is effectively a single-lead-program microcap, making FDA feedback on next-study design disproportionately important.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
CMMB	Microcap biotech from the same sector and market-cap screen; peer fit is loose, but useful for benchmarking financing sensitivity and event-driven volatility.
GTBP	Microcap development-stage biotech comparator from the same screen; relevant mainly for dilution risk and binary catalyst behavior rather than direct program overlap.
HOTH	Another microcap biotech from the same sector screen; the comparison is loose and mostly helpful for framing small-cap biotech sentiment and capital-markets dependence.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-16

AI Stock Memo: PHIO - Phio - RankAlpha