PALI

Rating neutralAI Memo

Palisade Bio

As of 2026-04-15/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-04-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Planned FDA IND submission for Phase 2 UC study • 2026-06-30

Expected move: -3%

Biggest risk

This is still a low-coverage, pre-proof small-cap biotech with negative expected-return priors, dependence on external capital, and explicit regulatory risk that FDA may not accept Canadian Phase 1 data to support a U.S. Phase 2 program [#10-K-2026-03-20].

Invalidation

Break below $1 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Fresh capital from the October 2025 equity raise plus the March 2026 Iterative Health placement gives Palisade enough room to pursue its stated Phase 2 UC plan, and a successful IND step could materially improve sentiment into a high-upside clinical setup [#8-K-2026-04-02] [#10-K-2026-03-20].

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-04-15

Base target

p=45%

Bull target

p=25%

Bear target

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Operational follow-through from Iterative Health enrollment agreement
Phase 2 UC efficacy path for PALI-2108
Fresh capital from the October 2025 equity raise plus the March 2026 Iterative Health placement gives Palisade enough room to pursue its stated Phase 2 UC plan, and a successful IND step could materially improve sentiment into a high-upside clinical setup [#8-K-2026-04-02] [#10-K-2026-03-20].

BearKey bullets

Clinical timelines can slip even with added enrollment support from Iterative Health.
FDA may not accept Canadian Phase 1 data to support a U.S.
Phase 2 study.

WatchKey bullets

Planned FDA IND submission for Phase 2 UC study

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $2 (p=45%)

Bull/Bear spread: +94% / -52%

Vs latest close: Bull +94% · Base -3% · Bear -52%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $4 (p=25%)Base Target: $2 (p=45%)Bear Target: $1 (p=30%)

Commentary

Sentiment is improved versus a pure financing-stress story because the 2025 equity raise removed near-term going-concern pressure and the April 2026 8-K tied new capital to Phase 2 enrollment preparation. Even so, forward visibility is still limited, the setup remains binary, and the deterministic prior stays negative, so this reads as a cautious monitoring name rather than a high-conviction bullish thesis [#8-K-2026-04-02] [#10-K-2026-03-20].

As of 2026-04-15 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Operational follow-through from Iterative Health enrollment agreement
Phase 2 UC efficacy path for PALI-2108

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$4 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$2 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$1 / p=30% prob

Price $2 as of 2026-06-02

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 3%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +94% · Base -3% · Bear -52%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-06-30
Planned FDA IND submission for Phase 2 UC study
The 2025 10-K says management anticipates the Phase 1/1b UC program and exploratory FSCD cohort will support an FDA IND submission for a Phase 2 UC study in the second quarter of 2026. A clean regulatory step would improve visibility, but the same filing also states there is no assurance the FDA will accept the Canadian trial data or allow a U.S. Phase 2 to proceed [#10-K-2026-03-20].
Prob 55.00% • Move 35.00% • Priced-in 25.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Operational follow-through from Iterative Health enrollment agreement
2026-05-31
Palisade said it hired Iterative Health to help expedite enrollment for the expected Phase 2 ulcerative colitis study and sold 1,536,885 shares to an Iterative affiliate for $3.0 million at $1.952 per share. Near-term disclosure that this support is translating into site activation or enrollment progress would help validate execution, while silence would keep the name in monitoring mode [#8-K-2026-04-02].
Prob 60% • Move 18% • Priced-in 45%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Phase 2 UC efficacy path for PALI-2108
2027-09-30
The 10-K says Palisade believes it has capital to fund operations through major clinical milestones, including a Phase 2 primary efficacy readout for PALI-2108 in UC expected in the second half of 2027. That is the main long-duration value inflection, but it remains a low-visibility, binary biotech setup before proof-of-concept [#10-K-2026-03-20].
Prob 35% • Move 140% • Priced-in 10%

Risks

Clinical timelines can slip even with added enrollment support from Iterative Health.
FDA may not accept Canadian Phase 1 data to support a U.S. Phase 2 study.
Further capital raises could dilute shareholders despite improved runway.
Pre-proof-of-concept biotech volatility can overwhelm fundamental progress.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
RLMD	Clinical-stage small-cap biotech with binary program catalysts and financing sensitivity; useful comparator for how pre-proof-of-concept drug developers rerate around trial updates.
ALLO	Another small-cap development-stage biotech where valuation is driven more by pipeline milestones and cash runway than current revenues, though modality and indication differ.
TLSI	Small-cap life sciences name with event-driven trading and execution risk; a looser peer but still relevant for sentiment around capital access and milestone-dependent repricing.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-04-15

AI Stock Memo: PALI - Palisade Bio - RankAlpha