OLPX

Rating buyAI Memo

Olaplex

As of 2026-01-25/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-25 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Quarterly earnings (assumed) • 2026-03-31

Expected move: -11%

Biggest risk

Soft sell-through, aggressive discounting or failed strategic outcomes keep cash flow constrained and valuation near analyst lows.

Invalidation

Break below $1 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Inventory digestion, visible margin recovery and retail restocking drive sustained top-line growth and multiple expansion toward specialty-beauty peers, supporting the bull target.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-25

Base target

p=60%

Bull target

p=20%

Bear target

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Promotions & inventory markdowns
Brand recovery & strategic expansion
Inventory digestion, visible margin recovery and retail restocking drive sustained top-line growth and multiple expansion toward specialty-beauty peers, supporting the bull target.

BearKey bullets

Execution risk on launches and international expansion
Inventory buildup / retailer markdowns leading to charges
Liquidity or financing pressure if cash flow deteriorates

WatchKey bullets

Quarterly earnings (assumed)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $2 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +72% / -41%

Vs latest close: Bull +72% · Base -11% · Bear -41%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $4 (p=20%)Base Target: $2 (p=60%)Bear Target: $1 (p=20%)

Commentary

Sentiment is mixed-to-neutral: analyst medians near $1.8–2.0 imply modest upside from the anchor, while a wide high/low spread shows substantial dispersion tied to M&A optionality and execution outcomes.

As of 2026-01-25 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Inventory digestion, visible margin recovery and retail restocking drive sustained top-line growth and multiple expansion toward specialty-beauty peers, supporting the bull target.

Bear Case

Soft sell-through, aggressive discounting or failed strategic outcomes keep cash flow constrained and valuation near analyst lows.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Promotions & inventory markdowns
Brand recovery & strategic expansion

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-25Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$1.82

Range (USD)

$1.21 - $4.20

Count

Query: Olaplex Holdings Inc Common (OLPX) analyst consensus price target high low average

Olaplex Holdings, Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #1
Analysts' Consensus ; Mean consensus. HOLD ; Number of Analysts. 10 ; Last Close Price. 1.640USD ; Average target price. 2.019USD ; Spread / Average Target. +23.09%.
Extracted: $1.64, $2.02Open source
Olaplex Holdings, Inc. (OLPX) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and ...
Search result #2
The average price target is $1.99 with a high forecast of $4.00 and a low forecast of $1.25. The average price target represents a 22.84% change from the last ...
Extracted: $1.99, $4.00, $1.25Open source
What is the current Price Target and Forecast for Olaplex (OLPX)
Search result #3
... analysts, the average price target for Olaplex Holdings, Inc. comes to $2.02. The forecasts range from a low of $1.40 to a high of $4.00. The average price ...
Extracted: $2.02, $1.40, $4.00Open source
Olaplex Holdings, Inc. (OLPX) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #4
Find the latest Olaplex Holdings, Inc. (OLPX) stock quote, history, news and other vital information to help you with your stock trading and investing.
Open source
OLPX Stock Forecast 2026 - Olaplex Price Targets & Predictions
Search result #5
Based on our analysis of 14 Wall Street analysts, OLPX has a neutral consensus with a median price target of $1.88 (ranging from $1.40 to $4.00). The overall ...
Extracted: $1.88, $1.40, $4.00Open source
Olaplex Holdings Inc. Analyst Estimates - OLPX - MarketWatch
Search result #6
Stock Price Targets. High, $4.00. Median, $1.75. Low, $1.25. Average, $1.96. Current Price, $1.6500. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. OLPX will report 2025 earnings ...
Extracted: $4.00, $1.75, $1.25, $1.96, $1.65Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$4 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$2 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$1 / p=20% prob

Price $2 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 11%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +72% · Base -11% · Bear -41%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-03-31
Quarterly earnings (assumed)
Quarterly results may revise inventory, margin, and guidance; a miss or cautious tone could trigger material downside volatility.
Prob 45.00% • Move 25.00% • Priced-in 30.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Promotions & inventory markdowns
2026-04-25
Near-term promotions and retailer markdowns could pressure revenue and reveal excess inventory, compressing near-term upside versus analyst medians.
Prob 35% • Move 20% • Priced-in 50%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Brand recovery & strategic expansion
2027-01-25
Sustained product cadence, international expansion and margin recovery could drive a multi-quarter rerating if execution and demand stabilize.
Prob 30% • Move 60% • Priced-in 20%

Risks

Execution risk on launches and international expansion
Inventory buildup / retailer markdowns leading to charges
Liquidity or financing pressure if cash flow deteriorates
Weak consumer discretionary spending hitting beauty categories

Peers

Symbol	Summary
COTY	Large consumer-beauty operator; relevant for brand licensing dynamics and mass-market distribution comparisons.
EL	Premium beauty peer; useful for gauging brand premium, international reach, and margin recovery potential.
ULTA	Retail distribution peer illustrating channel exposure and promotional sensitivity for branded haircare.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Olaplex Holdings Inc Common (OLPX) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-25

AI Stock Memo: OLPX - Olaplex - RankAlpha