NOAH

AI Memo

Noah

As of 2025-10-10/Confidence medium/Horizon 3m

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2025-10-10 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

Key catalyst

Quarterly results / earnings release

Expected move: +35%

Biggest risk

Sustained outflows or stricter cross‑border/regulatory constraints materially reduce AUM and fee revenue, forcing multiple compression and a large write‑down of out‑of‑period credit exposures.

Invalidation

Break below $8 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Noah regains AUM momentum, fee margins expand as higher‑margin private wealth products scale; improved investor sentiment and stable regulation drive re‑rating toward premium growth multiple.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2025-10-10

Base target

$12

p=60%

Bull target

$16

p=20%

Bear target

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Regulatory or cross‑border restrictions
Recovery in China wealth-management flows
Noah regains AUM momentum, fee margins expand as higher‑margin private wealth products scale; improved investor sentiment and stable regulation drive re‑rating toward premium growth multiple.

BearKey bullets

AUM outflows or weak net inflows
Credit losses or asset‑quality deterioration in advisory portfolios
Regulatory tightening on wealth-management cross-border products

WatchKey bullets

Quarterly results / earnings release

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $12 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +80% / -10%

Vs latest close: Bull +80% · Base +35% · Bear -10%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $16 (p=20%)Base Target: $12 (p=60%)Bear Target: $8 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market tone is cautious—investors are focused on AUM trends and regulatory clarity, producing muted trading volumes and mixed analyst views [#10Qp5]. Recent headlines show tepid inflows and discussion of policy scrutiny, keeping sentiment skewed toward downside until clearer evidence of recovery emerges [#Reg-Notice-2024].

As of 2025-10-10 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Noah regains AUM momentum, fee margins expand as higher‑margin private wealth products scale; improved investor sentiment and stable regulation drive re‑rating toward premium growth multiple.

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Regulatory or cross‑border restrictions
Recovery in China wealth-management flows

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$16 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$12 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$8 / p=20% prob

Price $9 as of 2026-07-17

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 10%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +80% · Base +35% · Bear -10%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT
Quarterly results / earnings release
Next quarterly report may update net inflows, fee margins and credit exposures; beats could re-rate shares while misses could drive steep downside [#10Qp5].
Prob 85.00% • Move 12.00% • Priced-in 50.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Regulatory or cross‑border restrictions
TBD
Adverse regulatory action or tighter cross-border product rules could curtail distribution and client movement, pressuring revenue and valuation [#Reg-Notice-2024].
Prob 30% • Move -40% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Recovery in China wealth-management flows
TBD
If mainland discretionary savings and onshore asset-management flows recover, Noah's AUM growth and fee income could accelerate, supporting multiple expansion [#Macro-Flow-2025].
Prob 40% • Move 35% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

AUM outflows or weak net inflows
Credit losses or asset‑quality deterioration in advisory portfolios
Regulatory tightening on wealth-management cross-border products

Peers

Symbol	Summary
SCHW	Large, diversified retail/wealth manager—useful benchmark for platform and custody trends.
GS	Global investment bank with private wealth segment—comparable for high‑net‑worth product mix shifts.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Analysis date: 2025-10-10

AI Stock Memo: NOAH - Noah - RankAlpha