AI Stock Memo: NECB - NorthEast Community Bancorp - RankAlpha

NECB

AI Memo

NorthEast Community Bancorp

As of 2026-02-05/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-05 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Quarterly earnings release (estimated window end) • 2026-04-30

Expected move: -13%

Biggest risk

Sustained deposit pressure, rising funding costs, or a sharp increase in loan-loss provisions compresses EPS and valuation; low liquidity and thin coverage amplify downside, moving the stock toward the bear target (17.0).

Invalidation

Break below $17 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Material NIM expansion, modest loan growth, stable credit, and successful capital actions (dividends/buybacks or accretive M&A) drive earnings and multiple expansion toward the bull target (30.0) within the 12-month horizon; requires clear outperformance versus consensus.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-05

Base target

$23

p=60%

Bull target

$30

p=20%

Bear target

$17

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Net interest margin sensitivity to near-term Fed/market moves
Capital deployment / dividend policy update or strategic action
Material NIM expansion, modest loan growth, stable credit, and successful capital actions (dividends/buybacks or accretive M&A) drive earnings and multiple expansion toward the bull target (30.0) within the 12-month horizon; requires clear outperformance versus consensus.

BearKey bullets

Compression of net interest margin if short-term rates move unfavorably
Deposit outflows or concentration in volatile funding sources
Unexpected credit losses in commercial loan book

WatchKey bullets

Quarterly earnings release (estimated window end)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $23 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +15% / -35%

Vs latest close: Bull +15% · Base -13% · Bear -35%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $30 (p=20%)Base Target: $23 (p=60%)Bear Target: $17 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market sentiment is mixed-to-neutral: analyst coverage is sparse (consensus target ~25.50 in several aggregator snippets) and the stock trades near the top of its 52-week range [#SERP-1][#SERP-7]. Retail and income-focused investors emphasize dividend and capital policy, while analysts note a single‑analyst consensus and limited coverage that increases outcome dispersion [#SERP-2]. Overall tone is cautious, with upside tied to margin/earnings beats and downside tied to funding/credit shocks.

As of 2026-02-05 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Net interest margin sensitivity to near-term Fed/market moves
Capital deployment / dividend policy update or strategic action

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-05Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$22.82

Range (USD)

$8.05 - $25.93

Count

Query: NorthEast Community Bancorp Inc Common (NECB) analyst consensus price target high low average

Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. (NECB) Stock Price, News ...
Search result #1
FY25. 0. 5M. 10M. 15M. 20M. 25M. View More. Analyst Insights: NECB. View More. Analyst Price Targets. 25.50. 25.50 Average. 24.50 Current. 25.50 High. Analyst ...
Open source
Northeast Community Bancorp (NECB) Price Targets
Search result #2
The forecasts for Northeast Community Bancorp Inc. (NECB) range from a low of $25.5 to a high of $25.5. The average price target represents a increase of $8.05 ...
Extracted: $25.50, $8.05Open source
NECB Stock Ratings & Analyst Recommendations - Financhill
Search result #3
According to 1 analysts, the consensus price target for Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. (NECB) is $25.50 per share.
Extracted: $25.50Open source
Northeast Community Bancorp Inc. Analyst Estimates - MarketWatch
Search result #4
Average Recommendation, Hold ; Average Target Price, 25.50 ; Number Of Ratings, 1 ; FY Report Date, 12/2026 ; Last Quarter's Earnings, 0.79.
Open source
Northeast Community Stock Price Today | NASDAQ: NECB Live
Search result #5
What Is Northeast Community (NECB) Price Target According to Analysts? The average 12-month price target for Northeast Community is USD25.50, with a high ...
Extracted: $25.50Open source
What You Need to Know About Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc.'s ...
Search result #6
As of 1/31/2026, Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. has a trailing 12-month earnings per share of $3.39. Its price-earnings ratio is currently ...
Extracted: $3.39Open source5 days ago

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$30 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$23 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$17 / p=20% prob

Price $26 as of 2026-07-14

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 13%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +15% · Base -13% · Bear -35%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-30
Quarterly earnings release (estimated window end)
Estimated upcoming quarterly earnings release; date assumed at quarter-end due to no explicit IR date in public snippets (assumption: window end) [#SERP-4].
Prob 75.00% • Move 8.00% • Priced-in 50.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Net interest margin sensitivity to near-term Fed/market moves
2026-05-06
Regional bank margin and EPS sensitivity to short-term rate moves and deposit flows; sentiment noted in recent investor commentary and AAII analysis of fundamentals [#SERP-6].
Prob 60% • Move 6% • Priced-in 60%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Capital deployment / dividend policy update or strategic action
2027-02-05
Potential longer-term capital allocation decisions (dividend, buybacks, or M&A) that could re-rate the shares; timing assumed as annual cycle end if not otherwise disclosed [#SERP-2].
Prob 40% • Move 12% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Compression of net interest margin if short-term rates move unfavorably
Deposit outflows or concentration in volatile funding sources
Unexpected credit losses in commercial loan book

Peers

Symbol	Summary
FHN	Mid‑sized regional bank with comparable interest‑rate sensitivity and community lending exposure.
FULT	Regional bank with retail deposit base and similar local M&A activity profile; a reference for capital‑policy moves.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: NorthEast Community Bancorp Inc Common (NECB) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-05