AI Stock Memo: NDAQ - Nasdaq - RankAlpha

NDAQ

Rating buyAI Memo

Nasdaq

As of 2026-01-30/Confidence high

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

high

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Regulatory / policy developments affecting listing fees and market rules • 2026-06-30

Expected move: +20%

Biggest risk

Prolonged volume weakness, adverse regulatory action, or sustained pricing pressure on data compresses revenue and margins, forcing a multiple re-rating toward the bear target.

Invalidation

Break below $82 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Data and surveillance subscription growth accelerates, listings and trading volumes rebound, and buybacks support EPS—driving multiple expansion toward the analyst high and realizing upside to $123.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

high

As of

2026-01-30

Base target

$109

p=65%

Bull target

$123

p=20%

Bear target

$82

p=15%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q4 / FY2025 Earnings (estimated release)
Macro-driven trading volume slowdown
Market-structure product ramp and recurring revenue expansion

BearKey bullets

Competitive pressure from other exchanges and fintech entrants on pricing and distribution
Delayed execution or slower adoption of paid data/analytics products
Prolonged decline in trading volumes or listings activity

WatchKey bullets

Regulatory / policy developments affecting listing fees and market rules

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

high

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $109 (p=65%)

Bull/Bear spread: +36% / -9%

Vs latest close: Bull +36% · Base +20% · Bear -9%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $123 (p=20%)Base Target: $109 (p=65%)Bear Target: $82 (p=15%)

Commentary

Consensus is mildly positive: median $109 sits above the anchor ($97.89) with upside concentrated among select analysts. Near-term sentiment hinges on the upcoming quarter and any guidance shifts; long-term views depend on regulatory clarity and successful data/SaaS execution [#SERP-1], [#SERP-3].

As of 2026-01-30 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Prolonged volume weakness, adverse regulatory action, or sustained pricing pressure on data compresses revenue and margins, forcing a multiple re-rating toward the bear target.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q4 / FY2025 Earnings (estimated release)
Macro-driven trading volume slowdown
Market-structure product ramp and recurring revenue expansion

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-30Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$109.00

Range (USD)

$74.00 - $123.00

Count

Query: Nasdaq Inc Common (NDAQ) analyst consensus price target high low average

What is the current Price Target and Forecast for Nasdaq (NDAQ)
Search result #1
The forecasts range from a low of $100.00 to a high of $123.00. The average price target represents an increase of 12.51% from the last closing price of $98.71.
Extracted: $100.00, $123.00, $98.71Open source
Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #2
Q4. FY25. 0. 500M. 1B. View More. Analyst Insights: NDAQ. View More. Analyst Price Targets. 82.00 Low. 107.93 Average. 98.09 Current. 123.00 High. Analyst ...
Open source
Nasdaq (NDAQ) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and Analysts ...
Search result #3
The average price target is $110.86 with a high forecast of $120.00 and a low forecast of $104.00. The average price target represents a 12.55% change from the ...
Extracted: $110.86, $120.00, $104.00Open source
NASDAQ INC (NDAQ) Stock Analyst Ratings - Chartmill
Search result #4
24 analysts have analysed NDAQ and the average price target is 109.06 USD. This implies a price increase of 11.9% is expected in the next year compared to the ...
Extracted: $109.06Open source
Nasdaq (NDAQ) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2026 - MarketBeat
Search result #5
The highest price target for NDAQ is $120.00, while the lowest price target for NDAQ is $75.00. The average price target represents a forecasted upside of 5.69% ...
Extracted: $120.00, $75.00Open source
NDAQ Stock Forecast 2026 - Nasdaq Price Targets & Predictions
Search result #6
Based on our analysis of 27 Wall Street analysts, NDAQ has a bullish consensus with a median price target of $109.00 (ranging from $74.00 to $123.00). The ...
Extracted: $109.00, $74.00, $123.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$123 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$109 / p=65% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$82 / p=15% prob

Price $91 as of 2026-05-27

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 9%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +36% · Base +20% · Bear -9%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-06-30
Regulatory / policy developments affecting listing fees and market rules
Potential rule changes or regulatory reviews (fee structures, market access) are an event risk; timing uncertain so the conservative window end is used and assumption noted [#SERP-5].
Prob 30.00% • Move -12.00% • Priced-in 20.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q4 / FY2025 Earnings (estimated release)
2026-04-30
Market consensus and recent analyst updates will be reassessed on the company’s next quarterly filing; timing estimated and could drive a near-term re-rating if results or guidance diverge from consensus [#SERP-1]. Date is an estimate based on typical quarterly cadence.
Prob 55% • Move 6% • Priced-in 50%
Macro-driven trading volume slowdown
2026-04-30
A macroeconomic slowdown that reduces listed-issuance and trading volumes would pressure transaction-related revenue; probability elevated in adverse macro scenarios [#SERP-5].
Prob 35% • Move -10% • Priced-in 35%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Market-structure product ramp and recurring revenue expansion
2027-01-30
Execution of market-structure/products (matching, surveillance, data licensing) and cross-selling to large clients could compound recurring revenue over 12+ months; supportive analyst estimates assume steady product adoption [#SERP-3], [#SERP-4].
Prob 60% • Move 22% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Competitive pressure from other exchanges and fintech entrants on pricing and distribution
Delayed execution or slower adoption of paid data/analytics products
Prolonged decline in trading volumes or listings activity
Regulatory scrutiny or mandated changes that compress exchange/data fees

Peers

Symbol	Summary
ICE	Intercontinental Exchange (ICE): Comparable exchange/operator model with diversified post-trade, data and listings exposure; a useful benchmark for fee trends and clearing volume sensitivity.
CBOE	CBOE Global Markets (CBOE): Options- and market-services operator with similar market-data and volatility-driven revenue exposure; relevant for product-mix and fee cadence comparisons.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Nasdaq Inc Common (NDAQ) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-30