AI Stock Memo: MKTX - MarketAxess - RankAlpha

MKTX

Rating buyAI Memo

MarketAxess

As of 2026-02-08/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Regulatory / post-market structure developments • 2026-03-31

Expected move: +70%

Biggest risk

Slower adoption, adverse regulatory action, or a durable reversion to voice/OTC execution compress volumes and take-rates, reducing revenue visibility and forcing a lower multiple toward the bear target.

Invalidation

Break below $138 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Sustained Open Trading adoption, rising take-rates, and a secular shift to electronic execution drive above-consensus revenue growth and margin expansion, supporting a materially higher valuation toward the bull target.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-08

Base target

$196

p=60%

Bull target

$255

p=25%

Bear target

$138

p=15%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Quarterly results / revenue mix update
Seasonal U.S.
corporate issuance / market liquidity pickup

BearKey bullets

Adverse regulatory changes to market structure
Competition from alternate electronic trading venues
Sharp decline in corporate bond issuance/volumes

WatchKey bullets

Regulatory / post-market structure developments

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $196 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +121% / +19%

Vs latest close: Bull +121% · Base +70% · Bear +19%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $255 (p=25%)Base Target: $196 (p=60%)Bear Target: $138 (p=15%)

Commentary

Market sentiment is cautiously constructive: analyst consensus skews towards Hold/Outperform with a median near $196.10, implying modest upside from the anchor [#SERP-3], [#SERP-4]. Short-term headlines focus on volumes and fee sustainability while longer-term narratives center on Open Trading network effects and market-share capture [#SERP-7].

As of 2026-02-08 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Quarterly results / revenue mix update
Seasonal U.S. corporate issuance / market liquidity pickup
Platform expansion and market-share gains (Open Trading growth)

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-08Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$196.10

Range (USD)

$166.34 - $403.00

Count

Query: MarketAxess Holdings Inc Common (MKTX) analyst consensus price target high low average

MarketAxesss (MKTX) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com
Search result #1
According to projections from 10 analysts, the average 12-month price target for MarketAxesss is 196.10, with a high estimate of 255 and a low estimate of ...
Open source
MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (MKTX) - Yahoo Finance
Search result #2
Despite positive results, the stock's valuation raises concerns, with some analysts suggesting it may be 26% above fair value. DOT_TEXT. VIEW_MORE.
Open source
MarketAxess Holdings Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #3
Mean consensus. OUTPERFORM ; Number of Analysts. 13 ; Last Close Price. 166.34USD ; Average target price. 196.10USD ; Spread / Average Target. +17.89%.
Extracted: $166.34, $196.10Open source
What is the current Price Target and Forecast for MarketAxess (MKTX)
Search result #4
Based on short-term price targets offered by 11 analysts, the average price target for MarketAxess comes to $192.45. The forecasts range from a low of $169.00 ...
Extracted: $192.45, $169.00Open source
MKTX Price: Quote, Forecast, Charts & News - Perplexity
Search result #5
The mixed institutional activity came against a backdrop of 99.01% institutional ownership and a "Hold" consensus rating with an average analyst price target ...
Open source
MarketAxess Holdings (MKTX) Stock Forecast: Analyst Ratings ...
Search result #6
11 analysts have given MarketAxess Holdings (MKTX) a consensus rating of Hold while the MarketAxess Holdings (MKTX) price prediction in 2026 is $204.91.
Extracted: $204.91Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$255 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$196 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$138 / p=15% prob

Price $116 as of 2026-07-16

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 19%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +121% · Base +70% · Bear +19%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-03-31
Regulatory / post-market structure developments
Potential regulatory notices or market-structure guidance that affect electronic execution and fee disclosure (assumed window end for industry actions) — outcome could materially alter execution economics [#SERP-2]. Assumed window end date used in expected_date.
Prob 30.00% • Move -10.00% • Priced-in 20.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Quarterly results / revenue mix update
2026-05-09
Next company earnings / quarter results expected to reprice consensus vs. analyst median targets; watch trade volumes and Open Trading adoption for upside [#SERP-3].
Prob 75% • Move 12% • Priced-in 40%
Seasonal U.S. corporate issuance / market liquidity pickup
2026-05-09
Higher issuance and liquidity typically lift electronic interdealer volumes and fees; could amplify 1Q–2Q trading revenues versus consensus [#SERP-4].
Prob 60% • Move 8% • Priced-in 35%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Platform expansion and market-share gains (Open Trading growth)
2027-02-08
Sustained adoption of Open Trading and new product rollout could drive multi-year revenue upside and expand take-rates versus legacy voice channels [#SERP-1], [#SERP-7].
Prob 55% • Move 55% • Priced-in 25%

Risks

Adverse regulatory changes to market structure
Competition from alternate electronic trading venues
Sharp decline in corporate bond issuance/volumes
Slower Open Trading adoption

Peers

Symbol	Summary
TW	Tradeweb: direct competitor in electronic fixed-income trading; similar auction/streaming products and institutional client base.
ICE	Intercontinental Exchange: broader market infrastructure exposure including fixed-income distribution and post-trade services; cross-sell potential.
CBOE	Cboe Global Markets: diversified market structure operator with trading technology expertise; less fixed-income focus but comparable market-tech dynamics.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: MarketAxess Holdings Inc Common (MKTX) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-08