AI Stock Memo: MDGL - Madrigal - RankAlpha

MDGL

Rating buyAI Memo

Madrigal

As of 2026-01-16/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Quarterly earnings / corporate update • 2026-02-28

Expected move: -99%

Biggest risk

Clinical setbacks, regulatory delays, or disappointing uptake could leave market capitalization materially below current consensus expectations; limited near‑term liquidity and headline-driven volatility increase downside risk.

Invalidation

Break below $1 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Successful late‑stage readouts and smooth regulatory/commercial execution could re-rate the stock dramatically from the current anchor, driven by high-margin hepatic franchise and limited direct competition.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-16

Base target

p=60%

Bull target

p=20%

Bear target

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Potential late‑stage NASH readout / regulatory update
Commercial uptake / label expansion outcomes
Successful late‑stage readouts and smooth regulatory/commercial execution could re-rate the stock dramatically from the current anchor, driven by high-margin hepatic franchise and limited direct competition.

BearKey bullets

Clinical readout misses endpoints or is inconclusive
Equity dilution or liquidity pressure from low float
Low commercial uptake or unfavorable pricing/reimbursement

WatchKey bullets

Quarterly earnings / corporate update

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $3 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: -99% / -100%

Vs latest close: Bull -99% · Base -99% · Bear -100%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $7 (p=20%)Base Target: $3 (p=60%)Bear Target: $1 (p=20%)

Commentary

Third‑party price‑target aggregates show nominal targets far above the authoritative anchor, creating a clear valuation disconnect [#SERP-1] [#SERP-3]. Near‑term sentiment is cautious and headline‑driven around clinical and corporate‑update windows, while successful binary outcomes would produce outsized upside. This mix of high execution risk and event-driven upside underpins the current buy view with moderate confidence.

As of 2026-01-16 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Potential late‑stage NASH readout / regulatory update
Commercial uptake / label expansion outcomes

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-16Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Above RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$514.06

Range (USD)

$445.00 - $900.00

Count

Query: Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc Common (MDGL) analyst consensus price target high low average

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #1
The highest price target for MDGL is $900.00, while the lowest price target for MDGL is $445.00. The average price target represents a forecasted upside of ...
Extracted: $900.00, $445.00Open source
Madrigal (MDGL) Price Targets - Zacks Investment Research
Search result #2
The forecasts range from a low of $502.00 to a high of $900.00. The average price target represents an increase of 20.21% from the last closing price of $505. ...
Extracted: $502.00, $900.00, $505.00Open source
MADRIGAL PHARMACEUTICALS INC (MDGL) Stock Analyst Ratings
Search result #3
23 analysts have analysed MDGL and the average price target is 611.04 USD. This implies a price increase of 11.92% is expected in the next year compared to the ...
Extracted: $611.04Open source
Synta Consensus Estimates (MDGL) - Investing.com NG
Search result #4
According to projections from 15 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Madrigal Pharma is 603.46667, with a high estimate of 900 and a low estimate of ...
Open source
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL) Stock Price, News, Quote ...
Search result #5
Analyst Insights: MDGL. View More. Analyst Price Targets. 502.00. 612.64 Average ... Price Target 540 -> 900. View More. Statistics: MDGL. View More. Valuation ...
Open source
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) Stock Forecast: Analyst Ratings ...
Search result #6
Financial analysts have set a price target of $589.17, indicating a 0.00% increase from the current stock price, but ratings and forecasts are frequently ...
Extracted: $589.17Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$7 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$3 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$1 / p=20% prob

Price $528 as of 2026-05-27

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 99%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull -99% · Base -99% · Bear -100%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-02-28
Quarterly earnings / corporate update
Company quarterly report and corporate update (date estimated as quarter end; assumption noted), which can reset guidance and near-term sentiment.
Prob 80.00% • Move 10.00% • Priced-in 60.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Potential late‑stage NASH readout / regulatory update
2026-04-16
Estimated late‑stage clinical readout or regulatory update for resmetirom; date conservatively estimated when no firm date disclosed [#SERP-1].
Prob 35% • Move 40% • Priced-in 10%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Commercial uptake / label expansion outcomes
2027-01-16
Outcome-driven revenue inflection from broader label/commercial adoption over the next year; modeled as long-term upside driver.
Prob 25% • Move 400% • Priced-in 5%

Risks

Clinical readout misses endpoints or is inconclusive
Equity dilution or liquidity pressure from low float
Low commercial uptake or unfavorable pricing/reimbursement
Regulatory delays, negative labeling, or adverse agency feedback

Peers

Symbol	Summary
VKTX	Metabolic/liver disease pipeline with similar late‑stage readout dependency.
GILD	Large-cap biotech with hepatic/R&D depth; useful comparator for commercialization and regulatory execution.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc Common (MDGL) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-16