LOB

Rating buyAI Memo

Live Oak Bancshares

As of 2026-01-24/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Analyst target revisions / consensus repricing • 2026-04-24

Expected move: +0%

Biggest risk

NIM compression, elevated charge-offs or deposit outflows would reduce earnings visibility and could drive downside toward low analyst targets or below, consistent with a prolonged re-pricing of regional bank multiples [#SERP-1].

Invalidation

Break below $28 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Execution that sustains above-trend loan growth, stabilizes NIM and keeps credit costs benign would push consensus toward the high end of published targets, supporting ~25% upside vs. the anchor [#SERP-3], [#SERP-6].

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-24

Base target

$43

p=60%

Bull target

$49

p=20%

Bear target

$28

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Next quarterly earnings report
12-month loan growth and NIM trajectory
Execution that sustains above-trend loan growth, stabilizes NIM and keeps credit costs benign would push consensus toward the high end of published targets, supporting ~25% upside vs.

BearKey bullets

Deposit outflows or higher cost of funding
Higher-than-expected loan charge-offs or credit deterioration
Negative analyst revisions or loss of coverage

WatchKey bullets

Analyst target revisions / consensus repricing

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $43 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +16% / -34%

Vs latest close: Bull +16% · Base +0% · Bear -34%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $49 (p=20%)Base Target: $43 (p=60%)Bear Target: $28 (p=20%)

Commentary

Consensus 12-month targets cluster in the low-to-mid $40s, implying modest upside from the anchor. Views are dispersed (roughly $28–$49 in our scenarios), showing mixed conviction but a central expectation near $42.50 [#SERP-1], [#SERP-3].

As of 2026-01-24 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Next quarterly earnings report
12-month loan growth and NIM trajectory

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-24Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$42.50

Range (USD)

$35.00 - $52.50

Count

Query: Live Oak Bancshares Inc Common (LOB) analyst consensus price target high low average

Live Oak Bancshares (LOB) Price Targets
Search result #1
The forecasts range from a low of $36.00 to a high of $50.00. The average price target represents an increase of 4.27% from the last closing price of $40.76.
Extracted: $36.00, $50.00, $40.76Open source
Live Oak Bancshares Inc (LOB) Q4 2025 - Yahoo Finance
Search result #2
Based on the one-year price targets offered by four analysts, the average target price for Live Oak Bancshares Inc (NYSE:LOB) is $42.50, with a ...
Extracted: $42.50Open source4 days ago
LOB Stock Forecast - Live Oak Bancshares Inc - Alpha Spread
Search result #3
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LOB is 43.61 USD with a low forecast of 36.36 USD and a high forecast of 52.5 USD.
Extracted: $43.61, $36.36, $52.50Open source
Live Oak Bancshares (LOB) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2026
Search result #4
According to the 4 analysts' twelve-month price targets for Live Oak Bancshares, the average price target is $42.50. The highest price target for LOB is $50.00, ...
Extracted: $42.50, $50.00Open source
Live Oak Bancshares Inc. Analyst Estimates - LOB - MarketWatch
Search result #5
Stock Price Targets. High, $50.00. Median, $42.00. Low, $36.00. Average, $42.50. Current Price, $37.87. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. LOB will report 2025 earnings ...
Extracted: $50.00, $42.00, $36.00, $42.50, $37.87Open source
Live Oak Bancshares Analyst Ratings and Price Targets | NYSE:LOB
Search result #6
Live Oak Bancshares Inc has a consensus price target of $43.29 based on the ratings of 8 analysts. The high is $47 issued by Truist Securities on January 30 ...
Extracted: $43.29, $47.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$49 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$43 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$28 / p=20% prob

Price $42 as of 2026-07-17

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 0%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +16% · Base +0% · Bear -34%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-24
Analyst target revisions / consensus repricing
Analyst updates can produce a material re-rating within one year; date is an estimated post-earnings re-evaluation window [#SERP-6], [#SERP-1].
Prob 50.00% • Move 12.00% • Priced-in 50.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Next quarterly earnings report
2026-04-24
Upcoming quarterly results may re-rate shares; date estimated. Market will focus on loan growth, credit trends and NIM disclosed in the release [#SERP-2], [#SERP-5].
Prob 65% • Move 8% • Priced-in 35%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

12-month loan growth and NIM trajectory
2027-01-24
Sustained small-business loan growth and stable-to-expanding NIM would support upside; consensus targets reflect this view over 12 months [#SERP-1], [#SERP-3].
Prob 60% • Move 25% • Priced-in 25%

Risks

Deposit outflows or higher cost of funding
Higher-than-expected loan charge-offs or credit deterioration
Negative analyst revisions or loss of coverage
Net interest margin compression from a flatter yield curve

Peers

Symbol	Summary
FHN	Regional bank with similar exposure to commercial and consumer lending; sensitive to NIM and credit cycles.
CUBI	Mid-sized bank serving small-business and commercial clients—comparable operational focus.
FITB	Larger regional with overlap in loan and deposit sensitivities; useful for directional rate and funding comparisons.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Live Oak Bancshares Inc Common (LOB) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-24

AI Stock Memo: LOB - Live Oak Bancshares - RankAlpha