AI Stock Memo: KSCP - Knightscope - RankAlpha

KSCP

Rating buyAI Memo

Knightscope

As of 2026-04-02/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-04-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Deferred payment schedule begins to materialize (liquidity / cash-flow monitoring) • 2027-03-31

Expected move: +179%

Biggest risk

If recurring revenue fails to scale, deferred payment liabilities pressure liquidity, or renewals underperform, downside to low-single-digit valuations is likely given limited free-cash-flow and narrow market cap.

Invalidation

Break below $3 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

If acquisition integration drives rapid ARR conversion and the company demonstrates clear recurring-revenue growth with stable renewal rates, multiple expansion toward small-cap security-service peers and analyst upside is plausible.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-04-02

Base target

p=50%

Bull target

$12

p=20%

Bear target

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q2/Q3 2026 recurring-revenue / renewal disclosures
Acquisition-driven recurring revenue ramp in 2026
If acquisition integration drives rapid ARR conversion and the company demonstrates clear recurring-revenue growth with stable renewal rates, multiple expansion toward small-cap security-service peers and analyst upside is plausible.

BearKey bullets

Integration execution for the 2026 acquisition
Liquidity strain from deferred payment schedule beginning 2027
Lower-than-expected renewal/recurring revenue conversion

WatchKey bullets

Deferred payment schedule begins to materialize (liquidity / cash-flow monitoring)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $8 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +318% / -13%

Vs latest close: Bull +318% · Base +179% · Bear -13%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $12 (p=20%)Base Target: $8 (p=50%)Bear Target: $3 (p=30%)

Commentary

Market color is mixed: recent IR/press-material emphasizes acquisition and recurring-sales wins, which points to constructive narrative if execution holds [#IR-undated]. However, the 8-K deferred-payment disclosure raises liquidity and timing concerns that dampen near-term sentiment [#8-K-2026-03-03]. Broader coverage shows modest analyst optimism but wide target dispersion [#SERP-2].

As of 2026-04-02 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q2/Q3 2026 recurring-revenue / renewal disclosures
Acquisition-driven recurring revenue ramp in 2026

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-04-02Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$8.04

Range (USD)

$4.17 - $12.00

Count

Query: Knightscope Inc Class A Common (KSCP) analyst consensus price target high low average

Knightscope Inc. Analyst Estimates - KSCP - MarketWatch
Search result #2
Average Recommendation, Buy. Average Target Price, 10.00. Number Of Ratings, 2. FY Report Date, 12/2026. Last Quarter's Earnings, -0.95.
Open source
KSCP | Knightscope, Inc. Class A Analyst Forecasts
Search result #3
The median price target is $25.00 with a high estimate of $27.00 and a low estimate of $12.00. The median price target is a 536.13% change from the last price ...
Extracted: $25.00, $27.00, $12.00Open source
KSCP / Knightscope, Inc. (NasdaqCM) - Forecast, Price Target ...
Search result #4
The average one-year price target for Knightscope, Inc. is $15.30. The forecasts range from a low of $8.08 to a high of $26.25. Read More.
Extracted: $15.30, $8.08, $26.25Open source
Knightscope (KSCP) Stock Forecast: Analyst Ratings, Predictions ...
Search result #6
Financial analysts have set a price target of $16.67, indicating a 0.00% increase from the current stock price, but ratings and forecasts are frequently updated ...
Extracted: $16.67Open source
Knightscope (KSCP) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com
Search result #7
According to projections from 3 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Knightscope is 15.0000 USD, with a high estimate of 25 USD and a low ...
Extracted: $15.00, $25.00Open source
Knightscope (KSCP) Stock Forecast & Analyst Ratings - Moomoo
Search result #10
KSCP Price Target for the Next 12 Months. Last Updated: Mar 9, 2026. The average Knightscope stock price target is 10.00 with a max estimate ...
Open sourceSep 4, 2024

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$12 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$8 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$3 / p=30% prob

Price $3 as of 2026-05-28

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 13%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +318% · Base +179% · Bear -13%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2027-03-31
Deferred payment schedule begins to materialize (liquidity / cash-flow monitoring)
8-K discloses $4.0m of deferred cash payments payable in quarterly installments of $0.5m from March 31, 2027 through Dec 31, 2028; investors should monitor liquidity / covenant impacts and any refinancing actions ahead of first installment [#8-K-2026-03-03].
Prob 80.00% • Move -15.00% • Priced-in 10.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q2/Q3 2026 recurring-revenue / renewal disclosures
2026-08-31
Quarterly filings and investor updates that report renewal rates, ARR/recurring revenue growth or backlog expansion will be a near-term performance read; prior IR note cites $1.0m in new sales/renewals (Nov 12, 2025) as evidence of recurring-sales focus [#IR-undated] [#10-K-2026-03-27].
Prob 65% • Move 20% • Priced-in 30%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Acquisition-driven recurring revenue ramp in 2026
2026-07-31
Company disclosed (BusinessWire / IR press releases captured in packet) that a strategic acquisition completed in early 2026 is expected to increase 2026 revenue and accelerate transition to higher recurring revenue; market should re-rate if recurring revenue mix and guidance update appear in mid-2026 reporting [#IR-undated] [#PR-undated].
Prob 55% • Move 45% • Priced-in 25%

Risks

Integration execution for the 2026 acquisition
Liquidity strain from deferred payment schedule beginning 2027
Lower-than-expected renewal/recurring revenue conversion

Peers

Symbol	Summary
ADT	Large integrated security-services operator; useful operational comparator for recurring-revenue and contract scale dynamics.
BGSF	Smaller security/staffing services peer with closer market-cap and recurring-service exposure.
FTEK	Small-cap industrial services peer; matches on automation/product-focused industrial client base and similar cap structure at micro-cap scale.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Knightscope Inc Class A Common (KSCP) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-04-02