KRNY

AI Memo

Kearny Financial

As of 2026-01-24/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Capital actions (dividend/repurchase) or local M&A activity • 2026-04-24

Expected move: -7%

Biggest risk

NIM compression, higher-than-expected credit costs, or adverse local CRE exposure could keep the stock at or below analyst lows despite the current anchor.

Invalidation

Break below $7 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Strong execution on NIM expansion and limited credit deterioration could push shares toward the analyst high; supportive capital actions would accelerate re-rating.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-24

Base target

p=55%

Bull target

p=25%

Bear target

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Quarterly earnings release
Interest-rate and loan portfolio cycle
Strong execution on NIM expansion and limited credit deterioration could push shares toward the analyst high; supportive capital actions would accelerate re-rating.

BearKey bullets

Net interest margin compression
Regulatory or capital adequacy pressure
Rising credit losses in commercial real estate

WatchKey bullets

Capital actions (dividend/repurchase) or local M&A activity

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $8 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: +10% / -15%

Vs latest close: Bull +10% · Base -7% · Bear -15%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $9 (p=25%)Base Target: $8 (p=55%)Bear Target: $7 (p=20%)

Commentary

Neutral-to-cautious. Anchor $7.80 sits just above the base (7.64) and well below the bull (9.00), implying limited near-term upside absent positive catalysts (portfolio-sale close, stronger NII, or capital actions). Maintain Hold and monitor the portfolio-sale closing and upcoming earnings for clearer direction.

As of 2026-01-24 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Strong execution on NIM expansion and limited credit deterioration could push shares toward the analyst high; supportive capital actions would accelerate re-rating.

Bear Case

NIM compression, higher-than-expected credit costs, or adverse local CRE exposure could keep the stock at or below analyst lows despite the current anchor.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Quarterly earnings release
Interest-rate and loan portfolio cycle

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-24Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$7.64

Range (USD)

$7.00 - $9.00

Count

Query: Kearny Financial Corp Common (KRNY) analyst consensus price target high low average

What is the current Price Target and Forecast for Kearny Financial ...
Search result #1
The average price target for Kearny Financial (KRNY) is $8.00. The ... The forecasts for Kearny Financial (KRNY) range from a low of $7 to a high of $9.
Extracted: $8.00, $7.00, $9.00Open source
Kearny Financial Corp.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #2
Consensus Kearny Financial Corp. Equities. KRNY. US48716P1084. Banks. Market ... Average target price. 7.250USD. Spread / Average Target. +13.81%. High Price ...
Extracted: $7.25Open source
Kearny Financial Corp. (KRNY) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #3
Analyst Insights: KRNY. View More. Analyst Price Targets. 7.00 Low. 8.25 Average ... Price Target 7.5 -> 9. View More. Statistics: KRNY. View More. Valuation ...
Open source
KEARNY FINANCIAL CORP/MD (KRNY) Stock Analyst Ratings
Search result #4
8 analysts have analysed KRNY and the average price target is 8.16 USD. This implies a price decrease of -1.21% is expected in the next year compared to the ...
Extracted: $8.16Open source
KRNY / Kearny Financial Corp. (NasdaqGS) - Forecast, Price Target ...
Search result #5
The average one-year price target for Kearny Financial Corp. is $7.40. The forecasts range from a low of $7.07 to a high of $7.88. A stock's price target is ...
Extracted: $7.40, $7.07, $7.88Open source
KRNY Stock Quote Price and Forecast - CNN
Search result #6
Kearny Financial Corp. KRNY is trading near the top of its 52-week range and above its 200-day simple moving average. The price of KRNY shares has decreased $0 ...
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$9 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$8 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$7 / p=20% prob

Price $8 as of 2026-06-02

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 7%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +10% · Base -7% · Bear -15%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-24
Capital actions (dividend/repurchase) or local M&A activity
Potential announcements on capital return or M&A could re-rate valuation; using analyst coverage as context for market expectations [#SERP-2], [#SERP-8]. Estimated window end used as event date.
Prob 35.00% • Move 8.00% • Priced-in 20.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Quarterly earnings release
2026-04-24
Next quarterly results may move the stock via NII and credit-line updates; date estimated conservatively and used as short-term catalyst [#SERP-3], [#SERP-1].
Prob 60% • Move 6% • Priced-in 30%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Interest-rate and loan portfolio cycle
2027-01-24
Over 12 months, NIM trends and credit-cost normalization will dictate earnings trajectory; scenario informed by analyst target spread [#SERP-1].
Prob 70% • Move 15% • Priced-in 45%

Risks

Net interest margin compression
Regulatory or capital adequacy pressure
Rising credit losses in commercial real estate

Peers

Symbol	Summary
EWBC	Regional lender with similar commercial real estate and commercial banking exposure; useful qualitative comparator.
PNC	Large regional bank offering a view on funding and NIM sensitivity in comparable US banking markets.
KEY	Regional commercial bank whose credit cycle commentary can provide directional context for KRNY.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Kearny Financial Corp Common (KRNY) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-24

AI Stock Memo: KRNY - Kearny Financial - RankAlpha