KFY

AI Memo

Korn Ferry

As of 2026-05-05/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-05 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q4 FY26 outlook sets up a near-term execution check • 2026-06-30

Expected move: +4%

Biggest risk

Forward visibility is still only moderate because Q4 guidance assumes stable geopolitical, economic, financial-market, and FX conditions; Consulting margin slipped, compensation expense remained a headwind, RPO new business was slightly below the prior-year nine-month level, and DSO rose to 67 days from 58 days.

Invalidation

Break below $58 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The primary-source evidence supports a cautious positive view: all solutions grew year over year in Q3, executive search remained strong, contracted fees improved, and liquidity plus repurchase capacity add balance-sheet support.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-05

Base target

$74

p=50%

Bull target

$82

p=25%

Bear target

$58

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Contracted fee backlog supports forward revenue visibility
Liquidity and repurchase capacity provide downside support
The primary-source evidence supports a cautious positive view: all solutions grew year over year in Q3, executive search remained strong, contracted fees improved, and liquidity plus repurchase capacity add balance-sheet support.

BearKey bullets

Compensation and benefits expense continued to offset part of the revenue growth, limiting operating leverage.
Consulting adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 17.0% from 17.7% a year earlier despite higher fee revenue.
Days sales outstanding increased to 67 days from 58 days, which is worth monitoring for collections and working-capital discipline.

WatchKey bullets

Q4 FY26 outlook sets up a near-term execution check

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $74 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +15% / -19%

Vs latest close: Bull +15% · Base +4% · Bear -19%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $82 (p=25%)Base Target: $74 (p=50%)Bear Target: $58 (p=25%)

Commentary

Primary-source evidence is supportive but still monitoring-style rather than high-conviction. News flow in the packet is light and mostly earnings-related, headline buzz is low, and no solid post-print analyst revision set was available in the packet. Price context is stable at $66.46 as of May 4, 2026, but there is limited fresh reaction data after the March 9, 2026 earnings release, which keeps confidence moderate.

As of 2026-05-05 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Contracted fee backlog supports forward revenue visibility
Liquidity and repurchase capacity provide downside support

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$82 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$74 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$58 / p=25% prob

Price $71 as of 2026-06-02

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 4%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +15% · Base +4% · Bear -19%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.24

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-06-30
Q4 FY26 outlook sets up a near-term execution check
Management guided Q4 FY26 fee revenue to $730 million-$750 million and diluted EPS to $1.34-$1.40 after Q3 fee revenue rose 7% year over year to $717.4 million, making the next print the clearest near-term test of whether diversified solution growth can hold. [#8-K-2026-03-09] [#10-Q-2026-03-11]
Prob 60.00% • Move 8.00% • Priced-in 55.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Contracted fee backlog supports forward revenue visibility
2026-09-30
Estimated remaining fees under existing contracts ended Q3 at $1.85 billion, up 11% year over year, led by Digital up 16%, Consulting up 12%, and RPO up 10%, which supports a more durable revenue base than a pure executive-search cycle. [#8-K-2026-03-09]
Prob 70% • Move 6% • Priced-in 50%
Liquidity and repurchase capacity provide downside support
2026-12-31
As of January 31, 2026, Korn Ferry had $938.4 million of cash and cash equivalents, $306.6 million remaining under its repurchase authorization, and $845.6 million available on its revolving facility, partially offset by $400 million of senior notes due 2027. That balance-sheet flexibility can support buybacks and cushion a softer demand period. [#10-Q-2026-03-11]
Prob 65% • Move 4% • Priced-in 60%

Risks

Compensation and benefits expense continued to offset part of the revenue growth, limiting operating leverage.
Consulting adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 17.0% from 17.7% a year earlier despite higher fee revenue.
Days sales outstanding increased to 67 days from 58 days, which is worth monitoring for collections and working-capital discipline.
Q4 outlook explicitly assumes no material negative impact from recent Middle East conflict and otherwise steady macro, market, and FX conditions.
RPO new business was $406.7 million year to date versus $414.6 million a year earlier, suggesting mixed booking momentum.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
HURN	Huron is the closest peer in the packet on consulting exposure, but it is more consulting-heavy and less tied to executive search and RPO, so read-through is only partial.
EXPO	Exponent is an adjacent professional-services comp with fee-based economics, but its engineering/scientific consulting mix makes it a loose peer for Korn Ferry’s talent and organizational solutions model.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-05-05

AI Stock Memo: KFY - Korn Ferry - RankAlpha