KEP

Rating neutralTentativeAI Memo

Korea Electric Power

As of 2026-05-19/Confidence low/Horizon 6‑12m

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-19 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Report quality notice

peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators

Action

neutral

Confidence

low

Horizon

6‑12m

Key catalyst

June 2026 tariff rollout could test pass-through credibility • 2026-06-01

Expected move: +33%

Biggest risk

Bear case: regulated pricing, policy intervention, and imported-fuel volatility can lag costs and compress margins, so the recovery could stall or reverse even if volumes hold up.

Invalidation

Break below $10 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case: KEPCO's dominant Korean utility footprint and tariff pass-through mechanics can keep the 2025 recovery intact if fuel costs remain manageable and the June 2026 tariff rollout improves recovery without damaging demand.

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

low

As of

2026-05-19

Base target

$18

p=45%

Bull target

$26

p=25%

Bear target

$10

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Quarterly fuel-cost adjustment remains the nearest swing factor
Durable earnings recovery requires tariff mechanics to keep offsetting fuel volatility
Bull case: KEPCO's dominant Korean utility footprint and tariff pass-through mechanics can keep the 2025 recovery intact if fuel costs remain manageable and the June 2026 tariff rollout improves recovery without damaging demand.

BearKey bullets

Imported fuel volatility (oil and LNG) can outrun tariff relief and pressure margins [#20F-2026-04-29].
Peer work remains constrained: the closest operating references are KEPCO subsidiaries or Korean energy-system inputs rather than clean independent public comps.
Regulatory or political intervention in electricity pricing could slow recovery or dilute pass-through [#20F-2026-04-29].

WatchKey bullets

June 2026 tariff rollout could test pass-through credibility

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

low

Timeframe

6‑12m

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $18 (p=45%)

Bull/Bear spread: +98% / -28%

Vs latest close: Bull +98% · Base +33% · Bear -28%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $26 (p=25%)Base Target: $18 (p=45%)Bear Target: $10 (p=30%)

Commentary

Primary-source coverage was thin but sufficient after confirming the April 29, 2026 20-F. The peer gap is partially repaired by using KEPCO's own generation subsidiaries and KOGAS as operating and input-cost references, but these are not clean independent public valuation comps, so the report remains tentative. The tone is cautious rather than bullish: the core thesis is a monitored tariff and fuel-pass-through recovery, not a broad demand or sentiment rerate. There is no reliable social context in the packet and no post-print analyst-revision data, so confidence stays low despite the wide gap to the median analyst target.

As of 2026-05-19 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Bear case: regulated pricing, policy intervention, and imported-fuel volatility can lag costs and compress margins, so the recovery could stall or reverse even if volumes hold up.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Quarterly fuel-cost adjustment remains the nearest swing factor
Durable earnings recovery requires tariff mechanics to keep offsetting fuel volatility

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$26 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$18 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$10 / p=30% prob

Price $13 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 28%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +98% · Base +33% · Bear -28%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-06-01
June 2026 tariff rollout could test pass-through credibility
The April 29, 2026 20-F says the revised Industrial(B) and EV-charging tariff system took effect on April 16, 2026, and that other customer categories move to adjusted time-of-use classifications beginning June 1, 2026. If the rollout improves cost recovery without a meaningful demand hit, it can support a rerating; if it triggers pushback or weakens consumption, the stock likely stays in monitor mode [#20F-2026-04-29].
Prob 65.00% • Move 7.00% • Priced-in 45.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Quarterly fuel-cost adjustment remains the nearest swing factor
2026-06-30
KEPCO's tariff framework still links bills to a fuel-cost adjustment mechanism, so the next reset window remains the most important near-term driver as international fuel prices flow through with a lag [#20F-2026-04-29].
Prob 70% • Move -8% • Priced-in 55%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Durable earnings recovery requires tariff mechanics to keep offsetting fuel volatility
2026-12-31
The 2025 20-F shows power sales up 4.6% to Won 95,168 billion from Won 91,019 billion in 2024, but it also highlights exposure to oil and LNG prices. A sustained rerating depends on whether higher unit sales prices and tariff mechanics can keep offsetting imported-fuel volatility over several quarters [#20F-2026-04-29].
Prob 45% • Move 18% • Priced-in 35%

Risks

Imported fuel volatility (oil and LNG) can outrun tariff relief and pressure margins [#20F-2026-04-29].
Peer work remains constrained: the closest operating references are KEPCO subsidiaries or Korean energy-system inputs rather than clean independent public comps.
Regulatory or political intervention in electricity pricing could slow recovery or dilute pass-through [#20F-2026-04-29].

Peers

No peer data

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-19

AI Stock Memo: KEP - Korea Electric Power - RankAlpha