IRS

Rating neutralAI Memo

IRSA Inversiones y Representaciones

As of 2026-06-18/Confidence low

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-06-18 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

low

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

FY2026 year-end results need to confirm rental resilience beyond accounting-driven profit • 2026-09-30

Expected move: -4%

Biggest risk

Forward visibility is weak. The deterministic prior is negative with very low evidence quality, and secondary earnings-call recap coverage indicated weaker real tenant sales even as mall revenue held up, implying macro softness could pressure leasing economics before reported cash flow does.

Invalidation

Break below $13 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Primary-source company materials still support a cautious constructive operating view: rental-segment EBITDA grew year over year, premium offices stayed fully occupied, hotels kept recovering, and development projects continued [#PR-2026-05-06].

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

low

As of

2026-06-18

Base target

$16

p=45%

Bull target

$21

p=25%

Bear target

$13

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Warrant expiry removes a technical overhang but modestly lifts share count
Polo Dot and Ramblas del Plata execution could support a slower NAV rerating
Primary-source company materials still support a cautious constructive operating view: rental-segment EBITDA grew year over year, premium offices stayed fully occupied, hotels kept recovering, and development projects continued [#PR-2026-05-06].

BearKey bullets

Argentina consumer and pricing weakness may eventually flow through to tenant affordability and leasing spreads even if occupancy is currently strong.
Coverage is thin and the current peer set is loose, which lowers confidence in valuation read-throughs.
Development execution at Polo Dot, Distrito Diagonal, and Ramblas del Plata could slip or require more capital before meaningfully lifting NAV.

WatchKey bullets

FY2026 year-end results need to confirm rental resilience beyond accounting-driven profit

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

low

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $16 (p=45%)

Bull/Bear spread: +23% / -25%

Vs latest close: Bull +23% · Base -4% · Bear -25%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $21 (p=25%)Base Target: $16 (p=45%)Bear Target: $13 (p=30%)

Commentary

Recent primary-source flow is mostly routine filing-driven: May 2026 results and the May 19 warrant update [#PR-2026-05-06] [#IR-2026-05-19]. That supports a monitoring stance, not a high-conviction rerating call. News coverage is thin, social context is unavailable, and the negative deterministic prior argues for caution despite operating stability and an apparently higher aggregate target range.

As of 2026-06-18 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Warrant expiry removes a technical overhang but modestly lifts share count
Polo Dot and Ramblas del Plata execution could support a slower NAV rerating

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$21 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$16 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$13 / p=30% prob

Price $17 as of 2026-06-18

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 4%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +23% · Base -4% · Bear -25%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-09-30
FY2026 year-end results need to confirm rental resilience beyond accounting-driven profit
In the May 6, 2026 company results release and filing, IRSA reported nine-month net income of ARS 239,741m and rental-segment Adjusted EBITDA of ARS 232,327m, with shopping-mall revenue and EBITDA up modestly and premium offices at 100% occupancy; the next results cycle needs to show these operating trends are holding and not being overshadowed by macro or non-cash valuation effects [#PR-2026-05-06].
Prob 55.00% • Move 10.00% • Priced-in 45.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Warrant expiry removes a technical overhang but modestly lifts share count
2026-06-30
IRSA disclosed that the May 2026 final warrant exercise increased outstanding ordinary shares to 846,115,922 and raised about USD 0.46m, which clears a lingering capital-markets overhang but leaves investors to absorb a higher share count in the near term [#IR-2026-05-19].
Prob 70% • Move 4% • Priced-in 75%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Polo Dot and Ramblas del Plata execution could support a slower NAV rerating
2027-03-31
Management said it launched a 15,350 sqm office expansion at Polo Dot with Mercado Libre as main tenant and continued infrastructure work plus two lot swaps at Ramblas del Plata, with first-building construction expected in the next fiscal year; clean execution could improve asset-value realization, but timing remains long-dated [#PR-2026-05-06].
Prob 40% • Move 18% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Argentina consumer and pricing weakness may eventually flow through to tenant affordability and leasing spreads even if occupancy is currently strong.
Coverage is thin and the current peer set is loose, which lowers confidence in valuation read-throughs.
Development execution at Polo Dot, Distrito Diagonal, and Ramblas del Plata could slip or require more capital before meaningfully lifting NAV.
Reported profit benefited from valuation, financial, and inflation-accounting effects, so headline earnings may overstate underlying operating momentum.
The May 2026 warrant exercise increased the share count, creating mild dilution even though it also removes an overhang [#IR-2026-05-19].

Peers

Symbol	Summary
KW	Kennedy-Wilson is a real-estate owner/operator with recurring property cash flows, but geographic and macro exposure differ materially from IRSA, so it is only a loose public-market valuation comp.
FOR	Forestar offers listed real-estate-development exposure, though its U.S. land-development model is less comparable to IRSA’s Argentina retail, office, hotel, and mixed-use portfolio.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-06-18

AI Stock Memo: IRS - IRSA Inversiones y Representaciones - RankAlpha