IR

Rating neutralAI Memo

Ingersoll Rand

As of 2026-04-29/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-04-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q1 beat with full-year guidance maintained • 2026-04-28

Expected move: +7%

Biggest risk

The bear read is that the market reaction suggests investors care more about underlying organic softness: IT&S organic orders were down 3%, IT&S organic revenue was down 2%, and IT&S segment margin fell 210 bps, so even an EPS/revenue beat may not matter if organic recovery slips [#8-K-2026-04-28].

Invalidation

Break below $72 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The bull read is that Q1 still showed resilient headline growth, positive book-to-bill in both segments, ample liquidity, and unchanged FY2026 guidance despite tariff and Middle East noise, supporting the idea that delayed orders and M&A contribution can refill growth later in the year [#8-K-2026-04-28].

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-04-29

Base target

$88

p=50%

Bull target

$100

p=25%

Bear target

$72

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Middle East order recovery is a near-term execution watchpoint
M&A contribution and Fox close support annual revenue target
The bull read is that Q1 still showed resilient headline growth, positive book-to-bill in both segments, ample liquidity, and unchanged FY2026 guidance despite tariff and Middle East noise, supporting the idea that delayed orders and M&A contribution can refill growth later in the year [#8-K-2026-04-28].

BearKey bullets

Execution risk around acquisitions and integration remains material given reliance on deal contribution to annual revenue growth and the pending Fox close [#8-K-2026-04-28].
IT&S adjusted EBITDA margin fell 210 bps year over year, with management citing organic volume deleverage, tariff pricing that only offset tariff costs one-for-one, and continued commercial investments [#8-K-2026-04-28].
Organic weakness in the core IT&S segment, where Q1 organic orders fell 3% and organic revenue fell 2% [#8-K-2026-04-28].

WatchKey bullets

Q1 beat with full-year guidance maintained

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $88 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +22% / -12%

Vs latest close: Bull +22% · Base +7% · Bear -12%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $100 (p=25%)Base Target: $88 (p=50%)Bear Target: $72 (p=25%)

Commentary

As of 2026-04-29, this appears closer to a T+1 follow-up than a true T+3 read. News flow is active but mixed: the earnings release confirmed a modest headline beat and unchanged guidance, while trusted post-print coverage described a roughly 4%-5% negative market reaction tied to organic weakness and margin compression. Confirmed analyst target/rating revisions are still limited in the checked evidence, so missing revision follow-through should be treated as an evidence gap rather than positive confirmation.

As of 2026-04-29 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Middle East order recovery is a near-term execution watchpoint
M&A contribution and Fox close support annual revenue target

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$100 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$88 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$72 / p=25% prob

Price $82 as of 2026-07-17

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 7%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +22% · Base +7% · Bear -12%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

-0.10

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-28
Q1 beat with full-year guidance maintained
Q1 2026 reported orders of $1.978B (+5%), revenue of $1.847B (+8%), adjusted EPS of $0.77 and adjusted EBITDA of $469M, while management maintained FY2026 guidance for 2.5%-4.5% revenue growth, $2.13B-$2.19B adjusted EBITDA and $3.45-$3.57 adjusted EPS [#8-K-2026-04-28]. Trusted post-print coverage said EPS and revenue were modestly above consensus, but the stock still traded lower as investors focused on mix and organic softness.
Prob 85.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 70.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Middle East order recovery is a near-term execution watchpoint
2026-07-31
Management said IT&S orders excluding the Middle East were approximately flat organically and that delayed Middle East orders are expected to be recovered through the balance of 2026; confirmation that this recovery is materializing would help de-risk the organic order narrative [#8-K-2026-04-28].
Prob 60% • Move 5% • Priced-in 35%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

M&A contribution and Fox close support annual revenue target
2026-12-31
Management highlighted a robust M&A pipeline, deployed $52M in Q1 for Scinomix, and said the signed Fox s.r.l. acquisition was expected to close on April 30, 2026; with guidance assuming about 2% M&A contribution, clean integration and deal cadence remain important to hitting the annual revenue target [#8-K-2026-04-28].
Prob 65% • Move 7% • Priced-in 50%

Risks

Execution risk around acquisitions and integration remains material given reliance on deal contribution to annual revenue growth and the pending Fox close [#8-K-2026-04-28].
IT&S adjusted EBITDA margin fell 210 bps year over year, with management citing organic volume deleverage, tariff pricing that only offset tariff costs one-for-one, and continued commercial investments [#8-K-2026-04-28].
Organic weakness in the core IT&S segment, where Q1 organic orders fell 3% and organic revenue fell 2% [#8-K-2026-04-28].
The recovery of delayed Middle East orders is management's expectation, not yet realized evidence; if recovery slips, full-year growth could lean more heavily on M&A [#8-K-2026-04-28].

Peers

Symbol	Summary
PH	Parker-Hannifin is a closer motion-and-flow industrial peer with stronger margin consistency; IR’s relative debate is whether M&A plus IRX can offset weaker organic volume and preserve valuation support.
EMR	Emerson offers a diversified industrial automation and flow comparison; versus EMR, IR currently has a more acquisition-driven growth mix and greater sensitivity to order timing and integration execution.
ETN	Eaton is a high-quality capital-goods benchmark with stronger secular electrification tailwinds; IR’s case looks more cyclical and execution-dependent, which helps explain its lower valuation versus faster-visibility peers.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-04-29

AI Stock Memo: IR - Ingersoll Rand - RankAlpha