AI Stock Memo: IPGP - IPG Photonics - RankAlpha

IPGP

Rating sellAI Memo

IPG Photonics

As of 2026-02-14/Confidence high/Horizon 3m

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

sell

Confidence

high

Horizon

Key catalyst

Export controls / China policy risk • 2026-06-30

Expected move: -14%

Biggest risk

Bear: prolonged capex weakness, pricing pressure, or export constraints compress revenue and margins toward analyst lows (scenario bear target).

Invalidation

Break below $66 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull: rapid order recovery, large commercial wins, and margin expansion drive re-rating toward the analyst high (scenario bull target).

Research note

Recommendation

sell

Confidence

high

As of

2026-02-14

Base target

$105

p=55%

Bull target

$180

p=20%

Bear target

$66

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

2026 Q1 Earnings (estimated)
Order pipeline recovery / large order wins
Bull: rapid order recovery, large commercial wins, and margin expansion drive re-rating toward the analyst high (scenario bull target).

BearKey bullets

Competitive pressure from alternative laser suppliers
Export controls or China regulatory risk
Industrial demand slowdown

WatchKey bullets

Export controls / China policy risk

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

sell

Model confidence

high

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $105 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: +48% / -46%

Vs latest close: Bull +48% · Base -14% · Bear -46%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $180 (p=20%)Base Target: $105 (p=55%)Bear Target: $66 (p=25%)

Commentary

Consensus targets sit below the current market anchor; medians cluster in the low-to-mid 100s while a smaller set of bullish forecasts reach 180. The wide high/low spread reflects uncertainty on timing of demand recovery and margin trajectory.

As of 2026-02-14 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bull: rapid order recovery, large commercial wins, and margin expansion drive re-rating toward the analyst high (scenario bull target).

Bear Case

Bear: prolonged capex weakness, pricing pressure, or export constraints compress revenue and margins toward analyst lows (scenario bear target).

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

2026 Q1 Earnings (estimated)
Order pipeline recovery / large order wins

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-14Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$105.00

Range (USD)

$65.65 - $180.00

Count

Query: IPG Photonics Corp Common (IPGP) analyst consensus price target high low average

IPG Photonics (IPGP) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com
Search result #1
According to projections from 6 analysts, the average 12-month price target for IPG Photonics is 96.92, with a high estimate of 110 and a low estimate of 77.5.
Open source
IPG Photonics Corporation: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #2
Mean consensus. OUTPERFORM ; Number of Analysts. 10 ; Last Close Price. 109.61USD ; Average target price. 96.92USD ; Spread / Average Target. -11.58%.
Extracted: $109.61, $96.92Open source
IPG Photonics Corporation (IPGP) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #3
Find the latest IPG Photonics Corporation (IPGP) stock quote, history, news and other vital information to help you with your stock trading ...
Open sourceFeb 13, 2025
IPG Photonics Corporation (IPGP) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and ...
Search result #4
The average price target is $126.50 with a high forecast of $180.00 and a low forecast of $77.50. The average price target represents a 13.62% change from the ...
Extracted: $126.50, $180.00, $77.50Open source
What is the current Price Target and Forecast for IPG Photonics (IPGP)
Search result #5
The forecasts range from a low of $77.50 to a high of $110.00. The average price target represents a decline of 12.61% from the last closing price of $110.90.
Extracted: $77.50, $110.00, $110.90Open source
IPGP Stock Ratings & Analyst Recommendations - Financhill
Search result #6
According to 8 analysts, the consensus price target for IPG Photonics Corp. (IPGP) is $96.08 per share.
Extracted: $96.08Open source1 day ago

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$180 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$105 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$66 / p=25% prob

Price $122 as of 2026-06-03

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 14%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +48% · Base -14% · Bear -46%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-06-30
Export controls / China policy risk
Regulatory or trade-policy actions affecting high-power laser shipments to China could materialize before end of Q2 2026 and materially affect shipments and revenues.
Prob 25.00% • Move -22.00% • Priced-in 30.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

2026 Q1 Earnings (estimated)
2026-05-15
Estimated quarterly release; a near-term earnings event that can reprice guidance and margins. Date is conservatively estimated.
Prob 85% • Move 18% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Order pipeline recovery / large order wins
2027-02-14
Sustained demand recovery in industrial and materials-processing end markets or material order wins could accelerate revenue and margin leverage over multiple quarters.
Prob 30% • Move 60% • Priced-in 10%

Risks

Competitive pressure from alternative laser suppliers
Export controls or China regulatory risk
Industrial demand slowdown
Margin compression from pricing or input-cost increases

Peers

Symbol	Summary
LITE	Lumentum — optical components and industrial lasers with overlapping exposure to materials processing and telecom.
LASR	nLIGHT — high-power fiber and slab lasers for industrial applications; similar end-market cyclicality.
COHR	Coherent — photonics and laser systems for industrial and scientific markets; a direct competitor on select product lines.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: IPG Photonics Corp Common (IPGP) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-14