IMTX

Rating buyAI Memo

Immatics

As of 2025-11-21/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2025-11-21 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Next quarterly financial report / SEC filing

Expected move: +5%

Biggest risk

Clinical setbacks, slower-than-expected enrollment, or need for recurrent equity raises create dilution and downward re-rating; manufacturing or regulatory delays could keep shares under pressure.

Invalidation

Break below $6 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Successful clinical readouts and a partnering deal validate the TCR approach, significantly derisking the pipeline and enabling re-rating toward mid-to-high teens per share; commercialization or buyout optionality could push value higher.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2025-11-21

Base target

$12

p=60%

Bull target

$18

p=20%

Bear target

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Partnership / licensing announcement
Clinical data readout for lead TCR-related program
Successful clinical readouts and a partnering deal validate the TCR approach, significantly derisking the pipeline and enabling re-rating toward mid-to-high teens per share; commercialization or buyout optionality could push value higher.

BearKey bullets

Clinical setbacks, slower-than-expected enrollment, or need for recurrent equity raises create dilution and downward re-rating; manufacturing or regulatory delays could keep shares under pressure.

WatchKey bullets

Next quarterly financial report / SEC filing

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $12 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +58% / -47%

Vs latest close: Bull +58% · Base +5% · Bear -47%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $18 (p=20%)Base Target: $12 (p=60%)Bear Target: $6 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market tone is cautious-to-constructive: investors are focused on upcoming data and cash runway disclosures, with selective interest around partnership potential [#IR] and sporadic news-driven spikes on program updates [#News]. Analysts and investors appear to price a binary clinical risk profile, leading to episodic volatility around announcements [#Clinical].

As of 2025-11-21 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Clinical setbacks, slower-than-expected enrollment, or need for recurrent equity raises create dilution and downward re-rating; manufacturing or regulatory delays could keep shares under pressure.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Partnership / licensing announcement
Clinical data readout for lead TCR-related program

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$18 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$12 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$6 / p=20% prob

Price $11 as of 2026-05-27

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 5%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +58% · Base +5% · Bear -47%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT
Next quarterly financial report / SEC filing
Quarterly results (revenue, cash burn) and management commentary that may shift near-term sentiment and cash runway assumptions [#IR].
Prob 90.00% • Move 8.00% • Priced-in 50.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Partnership / licensing announcement
TBD
Potential strategic partnership or licensing deal that could provide non-dilutive capital or validation; lower-probability but high-impact if it occurs [#News].
Prob 25% • Move 20% • Priced-in 10%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Clinical data readout for lead TCR-related program
TBD
Potential efficacy/safety readout for a cell-therapy/TCR program that would materially de-risk the pipeline or, if negative, materially hurt valuation [#PR][#Clinical].
Prob 40% • Move 30% • Priced-in 20%

Risks

No risks

Peers

Symbol	Summary
IOVA	Iovance — cell-therapy specialist with TIL focus; comparable clinical-stage manufacturing and regulatory execution risks.
GILD	Gilead (Kite) — large-cap with established cell therapy commercialization expertise; useful comparator for partnership/acquisition dynamics.
BMY	Bristol-Myers Squibb — major oncology/ cell-therapy investor with pipeline M&A history; benchmark for strategic exit scenarios.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Analysis date: 2025-11-21

AI Stock Memo: IMTX - Immatics - RankAlpha