AI Stock Memo: IDYA - IDEAYA Biosciences - RankAlpha

IDYA

Rating buyAI Memo

IDEAYA Biosciences

As of 2026-01-08/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Clinical readouts for lead oncology programs • 2026-06-30

Expected move: +66%

Biggest risk

Failed or ambiguous readouts, partner setbacks, regulatory delays, or the need for dilutive financing would increase discounting of pipeline optionality and likely compress the share price toward the bear target (~$25), with meaningful downside from the current anchor if multiple and execution assumptions are repriced.

Invalidation

Break below $25 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Positive near-term clinical readouts combined with at least one strategic partnership that extends cash runway and validates IDEAYA's biomarker-driven approach would materially de-risk the pipeline, enable multiple expansion, and could push the stock toward the bull target (~$79) seen among upper-end analyst estimates.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-08

Base target

$49

p=60%

Bull target

$79

p=20%

Bear target

$25

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Partnership or licensing announcement
Commercial adoption / late-stage success scenario
Positive near-term clinical readouts combined with at least one strategic partnership that extends cash runway and validates IDEAYA's biomarker-driven approach would materially de-risk the pipeline, enable multiple expansion, and could push the stock toward the bull target (~$79) seen among upper-end analyst estimates.

BearKey bullets

Competitive advances that diminish market opportunity for IDEAYA's programs
Equity dilution from financing needs that erodes per-share value
Negative or inconclusive clinical readouts that materially reduce program value

WatchKey bullets

Clinical readouts for lead oncology programs

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $49 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +168% / -15%

Vs latest close: Bull +168% · Base +66% · Bear -15%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $79 (p=20%)Base Target: $49 (p=60%)Bear Target: $25 (p=20%)

Commentary

Sell-side consensus averages sit above the current anchor, supporting a constructive stance, but wide dispersion (low-$30s to high-$70s) indicates binary clinical outcomes. Near-term sentiment is event-driven: positive readouts or partnership news would likely push the stock toward base/bull targets, while negative data or financing pressure would compress it toward the bear target.

As of 2026-01-08 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Partnership or licensing announcement
Commercial adoption / late-stage success scenario

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-08Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$48.54

Range (USD)

$30.00 - $79.00

Count

Query: IDEAYA Biosciences Inc Common (IDYA) analyst consensus price target high low average

Ideaya Biosciences Inc (IDYA) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #1
According to projections from 17 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Ideaya Biosciences is 49.64706, with a high estimate of 79 and a low estimate ...
Open source
Ideaya Biosciences (IDYA) Stock Forecast, Price Targets ... - TipRanks
Search result #2
The average price target is $49.08 with a high forecast of $79.00 and a low forecast of $30.00. The average price target represents a 44.99% change from the ...
Extracted: $49.08, $79.00, $30.00Open source
IDEAYA Biosciences Inc. Analyst Estimates - IDYA - MarketWatch
Search result #3
Stock Price Targets. High, $79.00. Median, $48.00. Low, $31.00. Average, $49.65. Current Price, $33.85. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. IDYA will report 2025 ...
Extracted: $79.00, $48.00, $31.00, $49.65, $33.85Open source
IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #4
Analysts' Consensus ; Mean consensus. BUY ; Number of Analysts. 18 ; Last Close Price. 35.62USD ; Average target price. 49.47USD ; Spread / Average Target. +38.88%.
Extracted: $35.62, $49.47Open source
IDYA - IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. Stock Price - Perplexity
Search result #5
Eighteen analysts covering IDEAYA Biosciences set an average twelve-month price target of $44.13, representing projected gains of 51.25% from current levels.
Extracted: $44.13Open source
IDYA Stock Forecast: Analyst Ratings, Predictions & Price Target 2026
Search result #6
Wall Street analysts have set a price target of $49.18, reflecting a 0.00% increase from the current stock price. What is the 2026 price prediction for IDYA?
Extracted: $49.18Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$79 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$49 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$25 / p=20% prob

Price $29 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 15%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +168% · Base +66% · Bear -15%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-06-30
Clinical readouts for lead oncology programs
Mid-stage clinical readouts for IDEAYA's lead oncology programs; timing and outcome will materially move valuation (consensus analyst coverage noted) [#SERP-2]. Assumed window end used for date selection.
Prob 40.00% • Move 35.00% • Priced-in 45.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Partnership or licensing announcement
2026-04-08
Potential business-development deal or licensing collaboration that could de-risk programs and expand cash runway; market consensus and analyst attention increase deal odds [#SERP-1].
Prob 25% • Move 20% • Priced-in 30%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Commercial adoption / late-stage success scenario
2027-01-08
If clinical success is sustained and regulatory path clears, broader commercialization could materially re-rate shares over the long term; consensus 12-month analyst targets provide a reference band [#SERP-3].
Prob 35% • Move 80% • Priced-in 20%

Risks

Competitive advances that diminish market opportunity for IDEAYA's programs
Equity dilution from financing needs that erodes per-share value
Negative or inconclusive clinical readouts that materially reduce program value
Regulatory delays or unfavorable agency feedback that slow approval timelines

Peers

Symbol	Summary
TNGX	Development-stage oncology biotech with pathway-targeted programs and partnership-driven de-risking potential.
EXEL	Established oncology-focused commercial-stage company — useful comparator for post-approval commercialization dynamics.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: IDEAYA Biosciences Inc Common (IDYA) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-08