HAFC

Rating buyAI Memo

Hanmi Financial

As of 2026-01-28/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q4 2025 earnings and updated guidance • 2026-01-27

Expected move: -3%

Biggest risk

Prolonged deposit runoff, materially higher provisions, or worsening CRE losses compress earnings and force multiple contraction, driving valuation toward the analyst low of $27.24.

Invalidation

Break below $27 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Sustained NIM expansion, deposit stabilization, controlled credit costs, and disciplined capital return drive EPS recovery and modest multiple expansion, pushing shares toward the analyst high of $33.08.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-28

Base target

$31

p=55%

Bull target

$33

p=25%

Bear target

$27

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Near-term funding cost / deposit re-pricing pressure
Loan portfolio normalization / credit-loss cycle resolution
Sustained NIM expansion, deposit stabilization, controlled credit costs, and disciplined capital return drive EPS recovery and modest multiple expansion, pushing shares toward the analyst high of $33.08.

BearKey bullets

CRE concentration and localized credit stress
Deposit outflows / funding-cost spike
Regulatory or capital shortfall concerns

WatchKey bullets

Q4 2025 earnings and updated guidance

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $31 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: +5% / -13%

Vs latest close: Bull +5% · Base -3% · Bear -13%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $33 (p=25%)Base Target: $31 (p=55%)Bear Target: $27 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market consensus shows modest upside with median targets near $30.50 while the range clusters between ~$27–33, suggesting mixed but constructive analyst tone [#SERP-2] [#SERP-6]. Short-term sentiment will track Q4 results and guidance for credit metrics; headlines around funding/CRE will disproportionately move sentiment [#SERP-5].

As of 2026-01-28 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Prolonged deposit runoff, materially higher provisions, or worsening CRE losses compress earnings and force multiple contraction, driving valuation toward the analyst low of $27.24.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Near-term funding cost / deposit re-pricing pressure
Loan portfolio normalization / credit-loss cycle resolution

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-28Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$30.50

Range (USD)

$27.24 - $33.08

Count

Query: Hanmi Financial Corp Common (HAFC) analyst consensus price target high low average

Hanmi Financial Corporation (HAFC) Stock Price, News, Quote ...
Search result #1
Find the latest Hanmi Financial Corporation (HAFC) stock quote, history, news and other vital information to help you with your stock trading and investing.
Open source
Hanmi Financial (HAFC) Stock Forecast & Price Target - MarketBeat
Search result #2
According to the 5 analysts' twelve-month price targets for Hanmi Financial, the average price target is $28.50. The highest price target for HAFC is $30.50, ...
Extracted: $28.50, $30.50Open source
Hanmi Financial Corp. (HAFC) Stock Forecast, Price ... - TipRanks
Search result #3
The average price target is $33.00 with a high forecast of $33.00 and a low forecast of $33.00. The average price target represents a 17.48% change from the ...
Extracted: $33.00Open source
Consensus Hanmi Financial Corporation - HAFC - MarketScreener
Search result #4
Low Price Target. 29.50USD. Spread / Lowest Target. +4.13%. Analyst Consensus Detail. Consensus revision (last 18 months). Analysts covering the company. Keefe ...
Extracted: $29.50Open source
Hanmi Financial (HAFC) Price Targets - Zacks Investment Research
Search result #5
The forecasts range from a low of $29.50 to a high of $33.00. The average price target represents an increase of 13.8% from the last closing price of $27.24.
Extracted: $29.50, $33.00, $27.24Open source
HAFC / Hanmi Financial Corporation (NasdaqGS) - Forecast, Price ...
Search result #6
The average one-year price target for Hanmi Financial Corporation is $31.24. The forecasts range from a low of $29.80 to a high of $33.08. Read More.
Extracted: $31.24, $29.80, $33.08Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$33 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$31 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$27 / p=20% prob

Price $31 as of 2026-07-22

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 3%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +5% · Base -3% · Bear -13%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-01-27
Q4 2025 earnings and updated guidance
Q4 2025 results and any forward guidance announced on 2026-01-27 may move the stock via credit-costs, provisioning, and NIM commentary; event previously scheduled for 2026-01-27 [#SERP-8].
Prob 60.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 40.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Near-term funding cost / deposit re-pricing pressure
2026-04-28
Regional deposit competition and rising short-term rates could compress margins and cause re-pricing risk into Q2 2026; market commentary and analyst notes flag funding sensitivity [#SERP-2].
Prob 50% • Move 8% • Priced-in 35%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Loan portfolio normalization / credit-loss cycle resolution
2027-01-28
Resolution of CRE/portfolio credit trends and recovery in commercial real estate performance could materially re-rate the stock over the next year (assumes gradual improvement in delinquencies and reserves).
Prob 30% • Move 20% • Priced-in 20%

Risks

CRE concentration and localized credit stress
Deposit outflows / funding-cost spike
Regulatory or capital shortfall concerns

Peers

Symbol	Summary
EWBC	East West Bancorp — similar California/Korean-American commercial real-estate and small-business lending footprint.
ZION	Zions Bancorporation — regional bank with comparable CRE and commercial lending exposure and sensitivity to interest-rate/funding cycles.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Hanmi Financial Corp Common (HAFC) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-28

AI Stock Memo: HAFC - Hanmi Financial - RankAlpha