GTM

AI MemoPost-earnings T+3

ZoomInfo

As of 2026-05-14/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence high

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

high

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Post-earnings guide reset leaves the next quarter as a prove-it checkpoint [#PR-2026-05-11] • 2026-08-10

Expected move: +9%

Biggest risk

The bear read is that the May 11, 2026 guide cut overwhelmed the quarter’s beat and triggered a negative analyst revision cycle. Secondary coverage after the print flagged downgrades and target cuts from firms including Piper Sandler, Canaccord, UBS, JPMorgan, and Citizens, with the common concern being that pricing-model changes and softer demand could delay recovery into 2027.

Invalidation

Break below $3 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The bull read is that ZoomInfo still produced Q1 revenue growth, 35% adjusted operating margin, $114.7 million of operating cash flow, and aggressive buybacks, while the restructuring program offers a path to defend EPS and cash generation even in a lower-growth year. If the customer-base reset stabilizes by the next quarter, the stock’s compressed price could rerate quickly from distressed levels.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

high

As of

2026-05-14

Base target

p=45%

Bull target

p=25%

Bear target

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Large-customer and retention metrics need to stabilize after the reset [#PR-2026-05-11]
2026 restructuring can defend margins, but savings are back-end loaded and execution-sensitive [#8-K-2026-05-11]
The bull read is that ZoomInfo still produced Q1 revenue growth, 35% adjusted operating margin, $114.7 million of operating cash flow, and aggressive buybacks, while the restructuring program offers a path to defend EPS and cash generation even in a lower-growth year.

BearKey bullets

As of March 31, 2026, cash and cash equivalents were $171.2 million against total debt of $1.323 billion, limiting room for additional operating missteps even with positive cash generation [#10-Q-2026-05-11].
FY2026 revenue guidance was cut on May 11, 2026 to $1.185-$1.205 billion from $1.247-$1.267 billion, and Q2 revenue guidance of $300-$303 million implies near-term demand pressure [#PR-2026-05-11].
Net revenue retention was 90% and the count of customers above $100,000 ACV fell sequentially to 1,900, signaling ongoing retention and expansion pressure [#PR-2026-05-11].

WatchKey bullets

Post-earnings guide reset leaves the next quarter as a prove-it checkpoint [#PR-2026-05-11]

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

high

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $4 (p=45%)

Bull/Bear spread: +68% / -27%

Vs latest close: Bull +68% · Base +9% · Bear -27%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $6 (p=25%)Base Target: $4 (p=45%)Bear Target: $3 (p=30%)

Commentary

Post-earnings tone is clearly negative. The May 11, 2026 company release showed a modest Q1 beat, but the guidance cut and restructuring announcement dominated the narrative; by May 12, 2026, secondary coverage described downgrades and a roughly one-third share-price drop. Headline buzz is high, but the packet lacks complete refreshed target-count data and direct transcript-level analyst digestion, so this remains a cautious monitoring memo rather than a high-conviction reversal call.

As of 2026-05-14 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Large-customer and retention metrics need to stabilize after the reset [#PR-2026-05-11]
2026 restructuring can defend margins, but savings are back-end loaded and execution-sensitive [#8-K-2026-05-11]

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$6 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$4 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$3 / p=30% prob

Price $3 as of 2026-06-02

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 9%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +68% · Base +9% · Bear -27%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

-0.68

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-08-10
Post-earnings guide reset leaves the next quarter as a prove-it checkpoint [#PR-2026-05-11]
On May 11, 2026, ZoomInfo reported Q1 revenue of $310.2 million and cut FY2026 revenue guidance to $1.185-$1.205 billion from $1.247-$1.267 billion, while guiding Q2 revenue to $300-$303 million. The cut matters more than the modest Q1 beat because it resets the growth trajectory lower and keeps the next print as the main validation point.
Prob 75.00% • Move -18.00% • Priced-in 70.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Large-customer and retention metrics need to stabilize after the reset [#PR-2026-05-11]
2026-08-10
Q1 ended with 1,900 customers above $100,000 ACV, down 21 sequentially, while net revenue retention was 90% and upmarket ACV grew 5% year over year. If these metrics stop deteriorating, the stock can find support; if they weaken again, the market is likely to treat the guidance cut as the start of a longer negative revision cycle.
Prob 40% • Move 10% • Priced-in 30%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

2026 restructuring can defend margins, but savings are back-end loaded and execution-sensitive [#8-K-2026-05-11]
2026-12-31
The May 11, 2026 8-K says the 2026 Restructuring Program includes an approximately 600-person reduction, is expected to be substantially complete by the end of 2026, should incur $45-$60 million of pre-tax charges, and targets about $60 million of annual run-rate operating expense savings once fully implemented. That can support profitability, but investors still need proof that cost actions offset weaker demand without damaging growth.
Prob 60% • Move 12% • Priced-in 45%

Risks

As of March 31, 2026, cash and cash equivalents were $171.2 million against total debt of $1.323 billion, limiting room for additional operating missteps even with positive cash generation [#10-Q-2026-05-11].
FY2026 revenue guidance was cut on May 11, 2026 to $1.185-$1.205 billion from $1.247-$1.267 billion, and Q2 revenue guidance of $300-$303 million implies near-term demand pressure [#PR-2026-05-11].
Net revenue retention was 90% and the count of customers above $100,000 ACV fell sequentially to 1,900, signaling ongoing retention and expansion pressure [#PR-2026-05-11].
The restructuring program carries $45-$60 million of pre-tax charges, mostly cash, and runs through the end of 2026, creating execution risk if cost cuts disrupt sales capacity or product delivery [#8-K-2026-05-11].

Peers

Symbol	Summary
YELP	Yelp is only an adjacent comp, but it helps frame customer-acquisition and advertising spend sensitivity. The overlap is in SMB and local demand budgets rather than in ZoomInfo’s B2B data platform economics, so the comparison is directional rather than direct.
TRIP	TripAdvisor is also a loose peer, useful mainly as a read-through on digital demand-generation and marketing budget pressure. It is not a direct operating peer for data subscriptions, which lowers peer-confidence in any valuation read-across.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-14

AI Stock Memo: GTM - ZoomInfo - RankAlpha