FRST

Rating buyAI Memo

Primis Financial

As of 2026-01-30/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Next quarterly earnings release • 2026-04-30

Expected move: -15%

Biggest risk

Deposit pressure or rising funding costs compress NIM, or localized credit deterioration and integration setbacks force reserve builds and earnings shortfalls, pushing valuation toward the analyst low (10.69).

Invalidation

Break below $11 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Sustained NIM expansion, accelerating loan growth, and clean integration of the announced acquisition drive earnings above consensus and re-rate the stock toward the analyst high (16.25) within 12 months.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-30

Base target

$14

p=60%

Bull target

$16

p=20%

Bear target

$11

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Near-term funding / deposit repricing pressure
Sustained NIM expansion if rates remain favorable
Sustained NIM expansion, accelerating loan growth, and clean integration of the announced acquisition drive earnings above consensus and re-rate the stock toward the analyst high (16.25) within 12 months.

BearKey bullets

Commercial real-estate and local CRE credit deterioration
Rapid deposit outflows or rising funding costs
Regulatory or capital setbacks related to the acquisition

WatchKey bullets

Next quarterly earnings release

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $14 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: -1% / -35%

Vs latest close: Bull -1% · Base -15% · Bear -35%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $16 (p=20%)Base Target: $14 (p=60%)Bear Target: $11 (p=20%)

Commentary

Coverage is limited and clustered in the mid-teens (median ~13.94). Recent disclosures are mixed—preliminary positive earnings but higher reserve guidance—so investor tone is cautious. Near-term sentiment will hinge on upcoming earnings, funding trends, and progress on the announced acquisition.

As of 2026-01-30 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Near-term funding / deposit repricing pressure
Sustained NIM expansion if rates remain favorable

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-30Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$13.94

Range (USD)

$10.69 - $16.25

Count

Query: Primis Financial Corp Common (FRST) analyst consensus price target high low average

Primis Financial Corp.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #1
Mean consensus. BUY ; Number of Analysts. 2 ; Last Close Price. 10.69USD ; Average target price. 13.62USD ; Spread / Average Target. +27.46%.
Extracted: $10.69, $13.62Open source
Primis Financial Corp (FRST) - Investing.com
Search result #2
The average 12-month price target for Primis Financial is USD15.63, with a high estimate of USD16.25 and a low estimate of USD15. 2 analysts recommend buying ...
Extracted: $15.63, $16.25, $15.00Open source
Primis Financial Corp. (FRST) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #3
FY25. Q4. FY25. 0. 10M. 20M. 30M. View More. Analyst Insights: FRST. View More. Analyst Price Targets. 15.00. 15.62 Average. 13.58 Current. 16.25 High. Analyst ...
Open source
Primis Financial Stock Price Forecast. Should You Buy FRST?
Search result #4
The consensus among the analysts for the expected earnings (EPS) is $0.340. We will update the financials statements for Primis Financial Corp., that can be ...
Open source
Primis Financial Corp. (FRST) Stock, Price, News, Quotes ... - MSN
Search result #5
Low. 0.62 x. Analyst rating and price target. FRST is rated "Strong Buy" with a 12-month target price of $15.63, a ‎17.87% upside from the current price of ...
Extracted: $15.63Open source
Primis Financial Target Price Forecast | FRST - Macroaxis
Search result #6
The current projected Primis Financial target price consensus is 13.63 with 1 analyst opinions. Check out Macroaxis Advice on Primis Financial to cross-verify ...
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$16 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$14 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$11 / p=20% prob

Price $16 as of 2026-07-16

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 1%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull -1% · Base -15% · Bear -35%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-30
Next quarterly earnings release
Company Q1 (next) earnings and guidance — market will re-price near-term growth/NIM outlook; assumed typical reporting window end used for date selection [#SERP-9].
Prob 95.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 60.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Near-term funding / deposit repricing pressure
2026-04-30
Regional deposit competition and repricing could compress liquidity and raise funding costs in the next quarter, pressuring NIM and short-term EPS [#SERP-9], [#SERP-1].
Prob 50% • Move 8% • Priced-in 50%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Sustained NIM expansion if rates remain favorable
2027-01-30
If the yield curve and loan repricing sustain higher spreads over 12 months, net interest margin and earnings growth should improve, supporting a re-rating over the next year [#SERP-2], [#SERP-7].
Prob 60% • Move 18% • Priced-in 40%

Risks

Commercial real-estate and local CRE credit deterioration
Rapid deposit outflows or rising funding costs
Regulatory or capital setbacks related to the acquisition
Sustained net-interest-margin compression

Peers

Symbol	Summary
KEY	Large regional bank; comparable sensitivity to regional loan demand, deposit flows, and NIM cycles.
FITB	Regional commercial lender; useful comparator for deposit-cost dynamics and fee-income performance.
FHN	Mid-cap community bank; comparable exposure to local commercial and CRE lending cycles.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Primis Financial Corp Common (FRST) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-30

AI Stock Memo: FRST - Primis Financial - RankAlpha