FIRY

AI Memo

Firy

As of 2026-06-24/Confidence low

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-06-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

low

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Rebrand to FIRY and new portfolio framing may widen investor attention • 2026-07-31

Expected move: -13%

Biggest risk

Forward visibility is still weak. The core Skillz business had reduced tournament play, material weaknesses remained unremediated, and the company still faces a December 2026 debt maturity while operating at a loss. Thin coverage also means there is little trusted revision data to confirm that Q1 changed the broader thesis. [#SEC-10Q-2026-05-15]

Invalidation

Break below $4 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Primary-source evidence supports a cautious positive operating turn: Q1 revenue growth accelerated, RZR more than doubled revenue, losses narrowed, net cash remained positive versus debt, and the rebrand may help investors look at FIRY as a broader portfolio rather than only a legacy mobile-gaming asset. [#SEC-10Q-2026-05-15] [#IR-2026-06-22]

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

low

As of

2026-06-24

Base target

p=45%

Bull target

$11

p=25%

Bear target

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q1 operating follow-through from RZR growth and narrower losses
Primary-source evidence supports a cautious positive operating turn: Q1 revenue growth accelerated, RZR more than doubled revenue, losses narrowed, net cash remained positive versus debt, and the rebrand may help investors look at FIRY as a broader portfolio rather than only a legacy mobile-gaming asset.
[#SEC-10Q-2026-05-15] [#IR-2026-06-22]

BearKey bullets

Coverage is thin and peer fit is loose, so thesis validation from analyst revisions and direct-comp valuation work is limited.
Litigation can add volatility: the Q1 10-Q disclosed the Papaya verdict figures, but monetization timing and final remedy remain uncertain from the sources checked.
[#SEC-10Q-2026-05-15]

WatchKey bullets

Rebrand to FIRY and new portfolio framing may widen investor attention

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

low

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $7 (p=45%)

Bull/Bear spread: +32% / -58%

Vs latest close: Bull +32% · Base -13% · Bear -58%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $11 (p=25%)Base Target: $7 (p=45%)Bear Target: $4 (p=30%)

Commentary

Recent news flow is modestly constructive but narrow, centered on the May 15, 2026 Q1 release and the June 22, 2026 ticker/name change. Primary sources support an improving operating narrative, but trusted post-print analyst revision data and confirmed immediate price-reaction context were not available from the checked sources. With evidence_quality_score only 0.32 and uncertainty_score 0.799 in the deterministic prior, this remains a low-conviction monitoring name rather than a strong sentiment long.

As of 2026-06-24 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q1 operating follow-through from RZR growth and narrower losses

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$11 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$7 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$4 / p=30% prob

Price $8 as of 2026-06-24

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 13%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +32% · Base -13% · Bear -58%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.18

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-07-31
Rebrand to FIRY and new portfolio framing may widen investor attention
The company completed its name change to Firy Inc. and began trading under FIRY on June 22, 2026; management also framed FIRY as the parent of Skillz, RZR, and Beamable, which could change how investors underwrite the business mix, though evidence of a sustained re-rating is still limited. [#IR-2026-06-22] [#SEC-8K-2026-06-08]
Prob 60.00% • Move 8.00% • Priced-in 55.00%
EVENT2026-12-15
December 15, 2026 debt maturity will force a refinancing or cash-use decision
As of March 31, 2026, FIRY had $185.4 million of cash and $129.7 million of senior secured notes due December 15, 2026; management said it was in compliance with covenants as of March 31, but the maturity remains a major balance-sheet checkpoint for a company still generating losses. [#SEC-10Q-2026-05-15]
Prob 70.00% • Move 15.00% • Priced-in 45.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q1 operating follow-through from RZR growth and narrower losses
2026-08-15
Q1 2026 revenue rose 33% year over year to $29.1 million, with RZR revenue up 120% to $9.8 million and Skillz revenue up 12% to $19.7 million; net loss improved to $10.9 million, but the core Skillz segment still saw reduced tournament play, so the next operating update must confirm that RZR demand and cost discipline are durable. [#SEC-10Q-2026-05-15]
Prob 55% • Move 12% • Priced-in 35%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

No long-term catalysts

Risks

Coverage is thin and peer fit is loose, so thesis validation from analyst revisions and direct-comp valuation work is limited.
Litigation can add volatility: the Q1 10-Q disclosed the Papaya verdict figures, but monetization timing and final remedy remain uncertain from the sources checked. [#SEC-10Q-2026-05-15]
Material weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting were still present as of March 31, 2026, and management said disclosure controls were not effective. [#SEC-10Q-2026-05-15]
Skillz segment growth was helped by higher average entry fees but partially offset by reduced tournament play, which raises the risk that core platform engagement remains fragile. [#SEC-10Q-2026-05-15]
The company had $129.7 million of senior secured notes due December 15, 2026, creating refinancing or cash-burn pressure if operating improvement stalls. [#SEC-10Q-2026-05-15]

Peers

No peer data

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-06-24

AI Stock Memo: FIRY - Firy - RankAlpha