FE

AI Memo

FirstEnergy

As of 2026-02-19/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-19 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q1 2026 earnings release / forward guidance update • 2026-05-20

Expected move: +8%

Biggest risk

Bear case centers on adverse regulatory rulings, weak operating results or credit weakness that contracts valuation toward or below the low analyst target.

Invalidation

Break below $45 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case assumes positive regulatory outcomes, stronger-than-expected operational performance, and stabilization of credit metrics enabling multiple expansion toward the high end of street targets.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-19

Base target

$50

p=60%

Bull target

$58

p=20%

Bear target

$45

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

State regulatory / rate case developments
Capital structure, credit outlook and long-term regulatory clarity
Bull case assumes positive regulatory outcomes, stronger-than-expected operational performance, and stabilization of credit metrics enabling multiple expansion toward the high end of street targets.

BearKey bullets

Adverse state regulatory rulings
Credit rating pressure / higher borrowing costs
Operational outages or large unforeseen capital costs

WatchKey bullets

Q1 2026 earnings release / forward guidance update

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $50 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +24% / -3%

Vs latest close: Bull +24% · Base +8% · Bear -3%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $58 (p=20%)Base Target: $50 (p=60%)Bear Target: $45 (p=20%)

Commentary

Street sentiment is mixed-to-neutral: analyst median targets cluster near $50, leaving limited near-term upside from the $48.94 anchor [#SERP-1][#SERP-9]. Recent headlines note Q4 2025 results and guidance-related attention, keeping focus on upcoming quarterly disclosures [#SERP-7]. Market commentary centers on regulatory outcomes and credit considerations as primary catalysts for re-rating [#SERP-2].

As of 2026-02-19 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bull case assumes positive regulatory outcomes, stronger-than-expected operational performance, and stabilization of credit metrics enabling multiple expansion toward the high end of street targets.

Bear Case

Bear case centers on adverse regulatory rulings, weak operating results or credit weakness that contracts valuation toward or below the low analyst target.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

State regulatory / rate case developments
Capital structure, credit outlook and long-term regulatory clarity

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-19Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$50.00

Range (USD)

$45.00 - $57.75

Count

Query: FirstEnergy Corp Common (FE) analyst consensus price target high low average

FirstEnergy (FE) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com
Search result #1
According to projections from 13 analysts, the average 12-month price target for FirstEnergy is 50.08, with a high estimate of 55 and a low estimate of 47. What ...
Open source
FirstEnergy Corp.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #2
Spread / Average Target. -0.05%. High Price Target. 55.00USD. Spread / Highest target. +9.78%. Low Price Target. 47.00USD. Spread / Lowest Target. -6.19% ...
Extracted: $55.00, $47.00Open source
FirstEnergy (FE) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2026 - MarketBeat
Search result #3
The highest price target for FE is $53.00, while the lowest price target for FE is $45.00. The average price target represents a forecasted downside of -0.32% ...
Extracted: $53.00, $45.00Open source
FE Stock Forecast 2026 - FirstEnergy Price Targets & Predictions
Search result #4
Based on our analysis of 26 Wall Street analysts, FE has a bullish consensus with a median price target of $50.00 (ranging from $47.00 to $55.00). The overall ...
Extracted: $50.00, $47.00, $55.00Open source
FirstEnergy Corp - FE Stock Forecast - Alpha Spread
Search result #5
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FE is 50.72 USD with a low forecast of 46.46 USD and a high forecast of 57.75 USD. What ...
Extracted: $50.72, $46.46, $57.75Open source
FirstEnergy Corp. Analyst Estimates - FE - MarketWatch
Search result #6
Average Recommendation, Overweight. Average Target Price, 50.25. Number Of Ratings, 18. FY Report Date, 12/2025. Last Quarter's Earnings, 0.83.
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$58 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$50 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$45 / p=20% prob

Price $46 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 3%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +24% · Base +8% · Bear -3%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-20
Q1 2026 earnings release / forward guidance update
Quarterly results and management guidance can move the stock near term; date estimated conservatively (no confirmed public date) — assumed release by 2026-05-20 per default guidance window. Supports re‑rating if EPS/guidance diverges from consensus [#SERP-7].
Prob 90.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 50.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

State regulatory / rate case developments
2026-05-20
Decisions in state rate cases (timing and approvals) materially affect revenue recovery and allowed returns; outcomes remain uncertain and are partially reflected in street targets [#SERP-1][#SERP-2].
Prob 40% • Move 12% • Priced-in 30%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Capital structure, credit outlook and long-term regulatory clarity
2027-02-19
Medium-term improvements or deterioration in credit ratings and regulatory clarity (e.g., multi-year rate plans) could drive directional re-rating over the next 12+ months; conservative date set at one year [#SERP-2].
Prob 35% • Move 20% • Priced-in 20%

Risks

Adverse state regulatory rulings
Credit rating pressure / higher borrowing costs
Operational outages or large unforeseen capital costs

Peers

Symbol	Summary
DUK	Large regulated utility with diversified generation and stable dividend profile; comparable regulatory exposure in key U.S. markets.
D	Integrated utility with significant regulated transmission and generation assets; similar sensitivity to rate decisions and fuel costs.
NEE	Larger renewables-heavy utility/IPP; useful growth/contracted-generation comparison though different growth profile.
ED	Urban/regional regulated utility focused on distribution and customer base stability; comparable earnings stability from regulated operations.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: FirstEnergy Corp Common (FE) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-19

AI Stock Memo: FE - FirstEnergy - RankAlpha