AI Stock Memo: FDP - Fresh Del Monte Produce - RankAlpha

FDP

AI Memo

Fresh Del Monte Produce

As of 2026-02-19/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-19 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Quarterly results & analyst refresh • 2026-05-20

Expected move: +25%

Biggest risk

Adverse weather, sustained commodity/freight inflation or execution failures compress margins and cash flow, prompting guidance cuts and multiple contraction.

Invalidation

Break below $28 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Margin recovery from freight/input easing plus successful execution of efficiency programs drives EPS beats and a multiple re-rate toward peer levels.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-19

Base target

$40

p=60%

Bull target

$48

p=20%

Bear target

$28

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Seasonal pricing & supply variability
Operational improvements & margin recovery
Margin recovery from freight/input easing plus successful execution of efficiency programs drives EPS beats and a multiple re-rate toward peer levels.

BearKey bullets

Adverse weather or crop disruption
Commodity-price volatility (bananas/avocados)
Currency and trade-policy moves

WatchKey bullets

Quarterly results & analyst refresh

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $40 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +49% / -13%

Vs latest close: Bull +49% · Base +25% · Bear -13%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $48 (p=20%)Base Target: $40 (p=60%)Bear Target: $28 (p=20%)

Commentary

Coverage is thin and consensus targets cluster in the low–mid $40s, producing muted upside in published aggregates. Company filings emphasize seasonality and input-cost exposure, so near-term sentiment hinges on harvest results and freight/input trends; a sustained margin improvement or a positive analyst revision would be required to lift sentiment materially.

As of 2026-02-19 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Margin recovery from freight/input easing plus successful execution of efficiency programs drives EPS beats and a multiple re-rate toward peer levels.

Bear Case

Adverse weather, sustained commodity/freight inflation or execution failures compress margins and cash flow, prompting guidance cuts and multiple contraction.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Seasonal pricing & supply variability
Operational improvements & margin recovery

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-19Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$40.17

Range (USD)

$16.67 - $46.92

Count

Query: Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc Common (FDP) analyst consensus price target high low average

Fresh Del Monte Produce (FDP) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #1
According to projections from 1 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Fresh Del Monte Produce is 46.00, with a high estimate of 46 and a low estimate ...
Open source
FDP | Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc. Analyst Estimates - MarketWatch
Search result #2
2.98. Median PE on Next FY Estimate, N/A. Stock Price Targets. High, $46.00. Median, $46.00. Low, $46.00. Average, $46.00. Current Price, $39.88. Yearly Numbers.
Extracted: $46.00, $39.88Open source
Consensus Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc. - MarketScreener
Search result #3
Analysts' Consensus ; Mean consensus. BUY ; Number of Analysts. 1 ; Last Close Price. 40.45USD ; Average target price. 46.00USD ; Spread / Average Target. +13.72%.
Extracted: $40.45, $46.00Open source
FRESH DEL MONTE PRODUCE INC (FDP) Stock Analyst Ratings
Search result #4
5 analysts have analysed FDP and the average price target is 46.92 USD. This implies a price increase of 16% is expected in the next year compared to the ...
Extracted: $46.92Open source
Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc. (FDP) - Yahoo Finance
Search result #5
FRESH DEL MONTE PRODUCE INC has an Investment Rating of HOLD; a target price of $42.000000; an Industry Subrating of Medium; a Management Subrating of Medium; a ...
Extracted: $42.00Open source
FDP Stock Forecast 2026 - Del Monte Price Targets & Predictions
Search result #6
Based on our analysis of 1 Wall Street analyst, FDP has a bullish consensus with a median price target of $46.00 (ranging from $46.00 to $46.00). The overall ...
Extracted: $46.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$48 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$40 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$28 / p=20% prob

Price $32 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 13%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +49% · Base +25% · Bear -13%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-20
Quarterly results & analyst refresh
Next quarterly report (assumed within the coming quarter) and any accompanying analyst target updates will re-anchor consensus and can re-rate the stock.
Prob 25.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 50.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Seasonal pricing & supply variability
2026-05-20
Spring harvest seasonality and commodity-price swings (bananas, avocados) can move near-term revenues and margins; company MD&A flags seasonality and input-cost sensitivity (Form 10-Q, 2025-10-29).
Prob 35% • Move 8% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Operational improvements & margin recovery
2027-02-19
Execution of cost-savings and efficiency initiatives across processing and distribution could support margin recovery over a 12month horizon.
Prob 40% • Move 20% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Adverse weather or crop disruption
Commodity-price volatility (bananas/avocados)
Currency and trade-policy moves
Transportation/logistics shocks

Peers

Symbol	Summary
CVGW	Calavo Growers — exposure to fresh-produce cycles and retail/foodservice demand; useful operational comparator.
CALM	Cal-Maine Foods — perishable food operator with commodity and distribution sensitivity; comparable cost-cycle dynamics.
LMNR	Limoneira — agriculture/produce business with crop-yield and export-logistics exposure; directionally similar risks.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc Common (FDP) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-19