EDAP

Rating neutralAI Memo

EDAP TMS

As of 2026-04-15/Confidence medium/Horizon 6‑12m

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-04-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

6‑12m

Key catalyst

Late-April 2026 EIB Tranche B funding • 2026-04-30

Expected move: -17%

Biggest risk

This is still a low-conviction monitoring setup because total 2025 revenue fell 3%, non-core revenue declined sharply, net loss widened to €25.9 million, cash fell to €17.4 million, and the April 2026 EIB draw adds warrants that can dilute upside [#PR-2026-03-25][#8-K-2026-04-02].

Invalidation

Break below $2 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

EDAP has real primary-source support for a growth story: 2025 HIFU revenue rose 39%, system placements grew 69%, U.S. procedures grew 28% in Q4, and management reiterated 2026 HIFU growth guidance of 34%-45% [#PR-2026-03-25].

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-04-15

Base target

p=55%

Bull target

p=20%

Bear target

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

AUA meeting and June 1 Investor Day could test demand narrative
2026 HIFU growth must offset ongoing losses and cash burn
EDAP has real primary-source support for a growth story: 2025 HIFU revenue rose 39%, system placements grew 69%, U.S.

BearKey bullets

EIB financing improves liquidity but adds warrant dilution.
Hospital placement and procedure growth may slow after a strong 2025.
Low coverage and sparse forward checkpoints raise uncertainty.

WatchKey bullets

Late-April 2026 EIB Tranche B funding

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

6‑12m

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $4 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: +27% / -54%

Vs latest close: Bull +27% · Base -17% · Bear -54%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $6 (p=20%)Base Target: $4 (p=55%)Bear Target: $2 (p=25%)

Commentary

Sentiment is mildly constructive but cautious. Primary sources support a credible Focal One adoption narrative and a near-term liquidity event, yet the current setup still looks more like a monitoring thesis than a clean re-rating: evidence quality is modest, catalyst density is thin, and worsening losses offset the positive revenue mix shift [#PR-2026-03-25][#8-K-2026-04-02][#10-K-2026-03-25].

As of 2026-04-15 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

AUA meeting and June 1 Investor Day could test demand narrative
2026 HIFU growth must offset ongoing losses and cash burn

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$6 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$4 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$2 / p=25% prob

Price $4 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 17%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +27% · Base -17% · Bear -54%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-30
Late-April 2026 EIB Tranche B funding
EDAP requested the €12.0 million Tranche B draw on April 1, 2026 and said disbursement is expected in late April 2026; that should improve near-term liquidity, though it also comes with 1,116,244 warrants at a €3.23 strike [#8-K-2026-04-02].
Prob 80.00% • Move 10.00% • Priced-in 45.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

AUA meeting and June 1 Investor Day could test demand narrative
2026-06-01
Management flagged the May 15-18, 2026 AUA meeting, a June 1, 2026 Investor Day, and a June 2-4, 2026 healthcare conference; these events are the clearest near-term checkpoints for whether strong Focal One placement and procedure trends are sustaining into 2026 [#PR-2026-03-25].
Prob 70% • Move 12% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

2026 HIFU growth must offset ongoing losses and cash burn
2026-12-31
EDAP reiterated 2026 revenue guidance of $72.0 million-$80.0 million, with core HIFU revenue expected at $50.0 million-$54.0 million, or 34%-45% growth, after 39% HIFU growth in 2025; however, the same release showed a 2025 net loss of €25.9 million and cash of €17.4 million at year-end, so execution must translate into better operating leverage rather than just placements [#PR-2026-03-25][#10-K-2026-03-25].
Prob 50% • Move 28% • Priced-in 35%

Risks

EIB financing improves liquidity but adds warrant dilution.
Hospital placement and procedure growth may slow after a strong 2025.
Low coverage and sparse forward checkpoints raise uncertainty.
Operating losses and cash burn remain material relative to EDAP's size.
Peer set is loose, making relative valuation less reliable.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
MBOT	Microbot is a small-cap medtech commercialization comparator with procedure-adoption and execution sensitivity, though its product focus is less directly comparable than EDAP's urology platform.
HSDT	Helius/Solana is a loose small-cap medtech peer useful mainly for financing and commercialization-risk context rather than direct product overlap.
FONR	FONAR is another small-cap medical-device name, but it is an imaging-centric comparator and therefore only a rough valuation and capital-markets reference point.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-04-15

AI Stock Memo: EDAP - EDAP TMS - RankAlpha