AI Stock Memo: DCI - Donaldson - RankAlpha

DCI

Rating buyAI Memo

Donaldson

As of 2026-02-27/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Analyst re-consensus following FY guidance / analyst updates • 2026-08-31

Expected move: +22%

Biggest risk

Bear case: prolonged OEM weakness, margin pressure from raw-material/cost passthrough limits, and multiple compression push shares toward analyst lows.

Invalidation

Break below $77 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case: stronger-than-expected aftermarket recovery and margin expansion drive re-rating toward the analyst high; organic growth plus share gains lift multiples.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-27

Base target

$100

p=60%

Bull target

$129

p=20%

Bear target

$77

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Upcoming quarterly results / near-term guidance
Cyclical recovery in industrial filtration & heavy-equipment markets
Bull case: stronger-than-expected aftermarket recovery and margin expansion drive re-rating toward the analyst high; organic growth plus share gains lift multiples.

BearKey bullets

Raw-material inflation and limited pricing pass-through
Slower-than-expected OEM demand
Worsening global industrial capex environment

WatchKey bullets

Analyst re-consensus following FY guidance / analyst updates

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $100 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +58% / -6%

Vs latest close: Bull +58% · Base +22% · Bear -6%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $129 (p=20%)Base Target: $100 (p=60%)Bear Target: $77 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market commentary is mixed-to-neutral with a modest buy tilt in consensus; analyst targets span a wide range reflecting divergent views on cyclicality and margin recovery [#SERP-5]. Some data aggregators show median targets near $99.8 while a minority of bulls target the $120+ area, indicating dispersion in outcomes [#SERP-1]. Overall tone is cautious optimism pending clearer guidance and macro signals [#SERP-6].

As of 2026-02-27 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bull case: stronger-than-expected aftermarket recovery and margin expansion drive re-rating toward the analyst high; organic growth plus share gains lift multiples.

Bear Case

Bear case: prolonged OEM weakness, margin pressure from raw-material/cost passthrough limits, and multiple compression push shares toward analyst lows.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Upcoming quarterly results / near-term guidance
Cyclical recovery in industrial filtration & heavy-equipment markets

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-27Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$99.80

Range (USD)

$77.00 - $129.15

Count

Query: Donaldson Company Inc Common (DCI) analyst consensus price target high low average

What is the current Price Target and Forecast for Donaldson (DCI)
Search result #1
The forecasts range from a low of $93.00 to a high of $123.00. The average price target represents a decline of 1.18% from the last closing price of $106.76.
Extracted: $93.00, $123.00, $106.76Open source
Donaldson Company, Inc. (DCI) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #2
Find the latest Donaldson Company, Inc. (DCI) stock quote, history, news and other vital information to help you with your stock trading and investing.
Open source
Donaldson (DCI) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com
Search result #3
According to projections from 5 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Donaldson is 99.80, with a high estimate of 123 and a low estimate of 77. What ...
Open source
Donaldson (DCI) Stock Forecast: Analyst Ratings, Predictions ...
Search result #4
4 analysts have given Donaldson (DCI) a consensus rating of Buy while the Donaldson (DCI) price prediction in 2026 is $100.75.
Extracted: $100.75Open source
DCI Stock Forecast 2026 - Donaldson Price Targets & Predictions
Search result #5
Based on our analysis of 9 Wall Street analysts, DCI has a neutral consensus with a median price target of $96.00 (ranging from $77.00 to $123.00). The overall ...
Extracted: $96.00, $77.00, $123.00Open source
Donaldson Analyst Ratings and Price Targets | NYSE:DCI - Benzinga
Search result #6
Donaldson Co Inc has a consensus price target of $89.43 based on the ratings of 8 analysts. The high is $120 issued by Jefferies on January 9, 2026. The low ...
Extracted: $89.43, $120.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$129 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$100 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$77 / p=20% prob

Price $82 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 6%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +58% · Base +22% · Bear -6%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-08-31
Analyst re-consensus following FY guidance / analyst updates
Analyst target range is wide; a concentrated update cycle (consensus re-rating) could shift the implied targets — date is a conservative window end for expected re-consensus activity (assumption noted) [#SERP-1], [#SERP-5].
Prob 50.00% • Move 12.00% • Priced-in 50.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Upcoming quarterly results / near-term guidance
2026-05-28
Next quarterly report assumed in the near-term window; revisions to guidance or beats/misses could move shares quickly (assumption: window end used for date) [#SERP-7].
Prob 75% • Move 8% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Cyclical recovery in industrial filtration & heavy-equipment markets
2027-02-27
Recovery or further weakness in OEM and aftermarket end-markets will drive multi-quarter revenue and margin shifts for Donaldson, affecting valuation over the next year [#SERP-3].
Prob 60% • Move 30% • Priced-in 25%

Risks

Raw-material inflation and limited pricing pass-through
Slower-than-expected OEM demand
Worsening global industrial capex environment

Peers

Symbol	Summary
PH	Parker-Hannifin: diversified industrial filtration and motion-control exposure; comparable sensitivity to OEM cycles.
CMI	Cummins: large-engine and filtration exposure with stronger OEM correlation; useful gauge of heavy-equipment demand.
ETN	Eaton: broader industrial power-management peer with overlapping end-market cyclicality relevant to Donaldson's aftermarket trends.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Donaldson Company Inc Common (DCI) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-27