AI Stock Memo: CVGW - Calavo Growers - RankAlpha

CVGW

Rating buyAI Memo

Calavo Growers

As of 2026-03-13/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-03-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Merger process and potential close with Mission Produce; investors to track definitive-court/closing milestones • 2026-09-30

Expected move: +7%

Biggest risk

Bear case: Merger delays, larger-than-expected integration costs or persistent margin pressure drive multiple compression and lower earnings visibility, pushing the stock toward the low $20s or below.

Invalidation

Break below $20 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case: Merger closes on a favorable timetable with realized synergies, stabilization of margins post-integration, and re-rating toward higher multiple peers; this supports upside toward low-mid $30s.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-03-13

Base target

$28

p=55%

Bull target

$34

p=20%

Bear target

$20

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q1 / near-term margin impact from merger-related costs reported in 10-Q
Bull case: Merger closes on a favorable timetable with realized synergies, stabilization of margins post-integration, and re-rating toward higher multiple peers; this supports upside toward low-mid $30s.
ANCHOR: {"price": 24.99, "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-12T00:00:00Z", "source": "rankalpha_api_adj_close"} ANALYST_TARGETS_REVIEWED: true Our base target ($28.00) sits slightly above the analyst median (≈$27.41) reflecting assigned probability to successful merger close and modest synergy realization; the bull ($34) assumes stronger execution and re-rating toward higher analyst highs, while the bear ($20) assumes material integration/margin setbacks.

BearKey bullets

Customer/retailer assortment or inventory reductions
Larger-than-expected integration costs and SG&A pressure
Merger closing delays or failure

WatchKey bullets

Merger process and potential close with Mission Produce; investors to track definitive-court/closing milestones

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $28 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: +30% / -23%

Vs latest close: Bull +30% · Base +7% · Bear -23%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $34 (p=20%)Base Target: $28 (p=55%)Bear Target: $20 (p=25%)

Commentary

Market tone is mixed: analyst consensus centers near the high-$20s while recent disclosures flagged merger-related charges and softer Q1 results, creating cautious near-term sentiment [#10-Q-2026-03-12][#PR-undated]. Newsflow will be dominated by merger milestones and quarterly results; sentiment should improve on clear closing timetables or synergy guidance and weaken on delays or higher costs [#8-K-2026-03-12].

As of 2026-03-13 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q1 / near-term margin impact from merger-related costs reported in 10-Q

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-03-13Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$27.41

Range (USD)

$25.88 - $40.00

Count

Query: Calavo Growers Inc Common (CVGW) analyst consensus price target high low average

Consensus Calavo Growers, Inc. - CVGW - MarketScreener
Search result #1
Average target price. 27.00USD ; Spread / Average Target. +2.31% ; High Price Target. 27.00USD ; Spread / Highest target. +2.31% ; Low Price Target. 27.00USD.
Extracted: $27.00Open source
Calavo Growers (CVGW) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #2
According to projections from 1 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Calavo Growers is 27.00 USD, with a high estimate of 27 USD and a low estimate ...
Extracted: $27.00Open source
CVGW / Calavo Growers, Inc. (NasdaqGS) - Forecast, Price Target ...
Search result #4
The average one-year price target for Calavo Growers, Inc. is $27.54. The forecasts range from a low of $27.27 to a high of $28.35. A stock's price target is ...
Extracted: $27.54, $27.27, $28.35Open source
Calavo Growers (CVGW) Stock Forecast & Analyst Price Targets
Search result #7
The 2 analysts that cover Calavo Growers stock have a consensus rating of "Buy" and an average price target of $33.5, which forecasts a 29.09% increase in the ...
Extracted: $33.50Open source
Calavo Growers (CVGW) Stock Forecast - Public Investing
Search result #9
Financial analysts have set a price target of $33.50, indicating a 0.00% increase from the current stock price, but ratings and forecasts are frequently updated ...
Extracted: $33.50Open source
Calavo Growers, Inc. CVGW Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #5
Calavo Growers, Inc. (CVGW) stock forecast and price target ; CVGW: Lowering target price to $26.00. bullish. Rating: Maintained. Price ...
Extracted: $26.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$34 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$28 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$20 / p=25% prob

Price $26 as of 2026-05-27

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 7%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +30% · Base +7% · Bear -23%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-09-30
Merger process and potential close with Mission Produce; investors to track definitive-court/closing milestones
Calavo is advancing a planned merger with Mission Produce; recent SEC/PR disclosures note ongoing merger activity and merger-related costs that affected Q1 results, making the transaction and its announced timeline the primary forward catalyst for valuation and integration risk [#8-K-2026-03-12][#PR-undated].
Prob 65.00% • Move 18.00% • Priced-in 30.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q1 / near-term margin impact from merger-related costs reported in 10-Q
2026-06-11
Calavo's 10-Q and related PR disclosed softer Q1 results and material non-recurring merger-related charges (~$7.2M reported in PR excerpt) which could pressure near-term margins and guide near-term sentiment around upcoming quarterly releases [#10-Q-2026-03-12][#PR-undated].
Prob 75% • Move -8% • Priced-in 50%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

No long-term catalysts

Risks

Customer/retailer assortment or inventory reductions
Larger-than-expected integration costs and SG&A pressure
Merger closing delays or failure
Seasonal produce supply/price volatility affecting margins

Peers

Symbol	Summary
BGS	Packaged/processed consumer food player with comparable margin sensitivity to input/SG&A swings; useful for channel and pricing/mix comparators.
LWAY	Smaller branded food operator; comparable for niche produce/consumer-brand cadence and inventory/seasonality risk.
BYND	Consumer-branded food company with volatile sentiment and dependency on retail assortment and pricing—relevant for demand/brand-readthroughs.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Calavo Growers Inc Common (CVGW) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-03-13