CUZ

Rating neutralTentativeAI Memo

Cousins Properties

As of 2026-05-19/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-19 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Report quality notice

memo remains a monitoring view with limited forward evidence and should not be standard-conviction

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

2026 FFO guidance and leasing follow-through remain the main monitoring milestones • 2026-07-31

Expected move: +11%

Biggest risk

The bear case is that the current evidence packet does not establish a clear forward catalyst. Office demand, financing costs, lease execution, and asset-sale timing remain important risks, and the deterministic prior is neutral to slightly negative across 5-day to 120-day horizons.

Invalidation

Break below $23 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The bull case is that Q1 filing and investor-presentation follow-up point to enough operating and capital-allocation activity to keep CUZ near the Street base target if leasing and same-property NOI continue to hold up. Any evidence of durable Sun Belt office demand or successful portfolio rotation would improve confidence.

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-19

Base target

$30

p=50%

Bull target

$33

p=25%

Bear target

$23

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

2026 FFO guidance and leasing follow-through remain the main monitoring milestones
Portfolio rotation and capital allocation need confirmation in later filings
The bull case is that Q1 filing and investor-presentation follow-up point to enough operating and capital-allocation activity to keep CUZ near the Street base target if leasing and same-property NOI continue to hold up.

BearKey bullets

Capital-allocation benefits from repurchases, acquisitions, dispositions, or refinancing need confirmation in later filings before being treated as durable value creation.
Forward visibility is limited; the packet supports recent filings but not a strong company-specific forward catalyst.
Office REIT execution risk remains tied to leasing, occupancy, tenant demand, and same-property NOI trends.

WatchKey bullets

The packet's analyst target summary shows a median and mean target of about $29.82 versus the $26.32 anchor price, implying moderate upside, but the target count is unavailable.

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $30 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +23% / -16%

Vs latest close: Bull +23% · Base +11% · Bear -16%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $33 (p=25%)Base Target: $30 (p=50%)Bear Target: $23 (p=25%)

Commentary

This is a cautious monitoring memo. Primary-source citation coverage is adequate through the Q1 10-Q and May 2026 8-K investor-presentation filing, but the packet does not supply enough forward-looking company-specific evidence to make this a catalyst-driven call. Recent news is limited to Q1 earnings coverage, social context is absent, and analyst target-count detail is unavailable, so missing revision data should not be treated as positive evidence.

As of 2026-05-19 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

2026 FFO guidance and leasing follow-through remain the main monitoring milestones
Portfolio rotation and capital allocation need confirmation in later filings

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$33 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$30 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$23 / p=25% prob

Price $27 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 11%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +23% · Base +11% · Bear -16%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.10

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

2026 FFO guidance and leasing follow-through remain the main monitoring milestones
2026-07-31
The report should be treated as a lower-conviction monitoring view: the packet supports that Cousins filed Q1 2026 results on April 29 and later provided a May 2026 investor presentation, but it does not provide enough primary-source detail to frame a near-term catalyst-driven rerating. The key company-specific item to monitor is whether leasing, same-property NOI, and FFO delivery continue to support the 2026 outlook discussed around the Q1 filing and subsequent investor materials. [#10-Q-2026-04-29][#8-K-2026-05-04]
Prob 65% • Move 2% • Priced-in 65%
Portfolio rotation and capital allocation need confirmation in later filings
2026-12-31
The existing draft cites repurchases, asset sales, an acquisition, and credit-facility activity, but the evidence packet only firmly supports the Q1 10-Q and May investor-presentation filings rather than a fully quantified forward catalyst. Follow-up filings should confirm whether portfolio rotation, liquidity, and balance-sheet actions are improving per-share value or merely offsetting office-market and rate sensitivity. [#10-Q-2026-04-29]
Prob 60% • Move 1% • Priced-in 60%

Risks

Capital-allocation benefits from repurchases, acquisitions, dispositions, or refinancing need confirmation in later filings before being treated as durable value creation.
Forward visibility is limited; the packet supports recent filings but not a strong company-specific forward catalyst.
Office REIT execution risk remains tied to leasing, occupancy, tenant demand, and same-property NOI trends.
The deterministic prior is neutral and slightly negative over 5-day, 20-day, 60-day, and 120-day horizons, which argues against upgrading the thesis on limited evidence.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
COLD	Same-sector, similar-market-cap REIT candidate from the packet, but property exposure differs, so it is a valuation and balance-sheet comparison rather than a direct office operating comp.
EPR	Same-sector, similar-market-cap REIT candidate from the packet with different tenant and property drivers; useful mainly for income-REIT risk appetite and capital-market sensitivity.
O	Large curated REIT peer from the packet and a benchmark for public REIT valuation and funding conditions, though it is not a direct office peer.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-19

AI Stock Memo: CUZ - Cousins Properties - RankAlpha