CR

TentativeAI MemoPost-earnings T+3

Crane

As of 2026-07-31/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence high

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-07-31 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Report quality notice

later post-earnings follow-up lacks concrete company-source and analyst/market reaction evidence

Action

—

Confidence

high

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q2 results and raised FY2026 EPS outlook • 2026-07-28

Base target: $237 / p=55% prob

Biggest risk

The stock has already reacted positively, while Process Flow Technologies demand was described as stable rather than accelerating. Execution depends partly on integrating recent acquisitions, and macroeconomic, geopolitical, tariff, and margin risks remain.

Invalidation

Break below $192 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The Q2 release supports a positive post-earnings thesis: strong core growth, record margins, rising backlog, acquisition outperformance, and a second consecutive FY2026 EPS-guidance increase. Post-print coverage showed Buy ratings maintained or reiterated at $235-$245, with an additional $253 target in the checked analyst list. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28]

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

high

As of

2026-07-31

Base target

$237

p=55%

Bull target

$253

p=25%

Bear target

$192

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Post-print analyst validation
Aerospace backlog and acquisition execution
The Q2 release supports a positive post-earnings thesis: strong core growth, record margins, rising backlog, acquisition outperformance, and a second consecutive FY2026 EPS-guidance increase.

BearKey bullets

Acquisition contribution represented 19.8% of Q2 sales growth, increasing integration and execution dependence.
Adjusted EPS and adjusted operating profit exclude all benefit from tariff recoveries, so reported operating leverage may not fully represent recurring performance.
Post-print analyst evidence was primarily target and rating reiterations; no verified broad consensus-estimate revision was identified in the checked coverage.

WatchKey bullets

Q2 results and raised FY2026 EPS outlook

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

high

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $237 (p=55%)

Target spread vs base: +7% / -19%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $253 (p=25%)Base Target: $237 (p=55%)Bear Target: $192 (p=20%)

Commentary

News tone is positive following the Q2 release, raised guidance, backlog growth, and specific post-print Buy reiterations. Market data recorded CR at $214.18 on July 30, up $7.45 or 3.60% for the session, consistent with a positive immediate reaction. Source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/cr/forecast/ Social sentiment, options skew, short interest, and employee-rating data were unavailable in the packet and are not treated as confirmation.

As of 2026-07-31 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Post-print analyst validation
Aerospace backlog and acquisition execution

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$253 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$237 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$192 / p=20% prob

Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.78

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-07-28
Q2 results and raised FY2026 EPS outlook
Crane reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.79, sales growth of 25.6% with 5.2% core growth, adjusted operating margin of 21.3%, and raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $6.85-$7.05 from $6.65-$6.85. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28]
Prob 95.00% • Move 4.00% • Priced-in 75.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Post-print analyst validation
2026-07-30
Post-earnings coverage listed Stifel maintaining Buy with a $242 target on July 29, D.A. Davidson maintaining Buy with a $235 target on July 29, and Wolfe Research reiterating Buy with a $245 target on July 30. Source: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/cr/forecast/
Prob 65% • Move 3% • Priced-in 60%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Aerospace backlog and acquisition execution
2026-12-31
Aerospace & Advanced Technologies delivered 13.3% core sales growth and record backlog of $1.27 billion, while all four recent acquisitions were reported ahead of expectations. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28]
Prob 70% • Move 8% • Priced-in 55%

Risks

Acquisition contribution represented 19.8% of Q2 sales growth, increasing integration and execution dependence.
Adjusted EPS and adjusted operating profit exclude all benefit from tariff recoveries, so reported operating leverage may not fully represent recurring performance.
Post-print analyst evidence was primarily target and rating reiterations; no verified broad consensus-estimate revision was identified in the checked coverage.
The checked analyst target range remains dispersed, with a low target below the current share price.
The company cited an uncertain macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop; PFT demand was stable rather than strongly accelerating.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
AIT	Same-sector, similar-size industrial peer, but its distribution exposure makes it an imperfect operating comparison.
MOG.A	Similar-size capital-goods peer with stronger aerospace relevance; useful for AAT comparison but not a full-company match.
EMR	Larger automation and process-technology peer with relevant PFT exposure, but materially broader and larger.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-07-31

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Symbol

Summary

AIT

Same-sector, similar-size industrial peer, but its distribution exposure makes it an imperfect operating comparison.

MOG.A

Similar-size capital-goods peer with stronger aerospace relevance; useful for AAT comparison but not a full-company match.

EMR

Larger automation and process-technology peer with relevant PFT exposure, but materially broader and larger.