CPS
AI MemoPost-earnings T+1Cooper-Standard
As of 2026-11-05/Post-earnings T+1/Confidence medium
Data freshness
AI Memo
As of 2026-11-05 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Decision Panel
Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.
Action
—
Confidence
medium
Horizon
—
Key catalyst
Q3 earnings and 2026 guidance cut • 2026-11-05
Base target: $18 / p=45% prob
Biggest risk
The adjusted EBITDA guidance midpoint fell from $280 million to $240 million, while nine-month free cash flow was negative $87.6 million. Q3 adjusted loss of $0.11 per share also fell short of the $0.31 profit consensus reported by Zacks. No verified post-print analyst rating, target, or forward-estimate revision is available. [#SEC-8K-2026-11-05]
Invalidation
Break below $12 or thesis failure.
What would change my mind?
Sales growth despite lower industry production, $148.8 million of Q3 awards, and $305.4 million of reported quarter-end liquidity leave room for recovery if customer cost reimbursements arrive and awards convert at acceptable margins. [#SEC-8K-2026-11-05]
Research note
Recommendation
—
Confidence
medium
As of
2026-11-05
Base target
$18
p=45%
Bull target
$26
p=25%
Bear target
$12
p=30%
Key bullets
Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items
BullKey bullets
- Customer cost-recovery execution
- New-business award conversion
- Sales growth despite lower industry production, $148.8 million of Q3 awards, and $305.4 million of reported quarter-end liquidity leave room for recovery if customer cost reimbursements arrive and awards convert at acceptable margins.
BearKey bullets
- Commodity costs and general inflation exceeded management's prior expectations, prompting a substantial adjusted EBITDA guidance cut.
- [#SEC-8K-2026-11-05]
- Customer cost recoveries may arrive later than needed, and new-business awards may not convert into profitable revenue.
WatchKey bullets
- Q3 earnings and 2026 guidance cut
Summary
High-level snapshot
Recommendation
-
Model confidence
medium
Timeframe
-
Asset
Equity
Trigger
Post-earnings T+1
Base case: $18 (p=45%)
Target spread vs base: +44% / -33%
Scenario probabilities
Bull Target: $26 (p=25%)Base Target: $18 (p=45%)Bear Target: $12 (p=30%)
Commentary
The company release confirms a material guidance reduction despite higher sales and strong awards. A live CPS quote at 14:59 UTC on November 5 was $17.58, down about 20.2% from the packet's $22.04 November 4 close; attributing the entire move to earnings would be an inference. Post-print analyst revisions and a call transcript were not verified. The deterministic positive prior signals thesis-change intensity, but the confirmed guidance cut and cash-flow weakness warrant cautious monitoring rather than a bullish upgrade. Social and options sentiment are unavailable; zero entries above denote unavailable data, not neutral measurements.
As of 2026-11-05 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology
Analyst Summary
Thesis highlights from the latest analysis
Bull Case
Sales growth despite lower industry production, $148.8 million of Q3 awards, and $305.4 million of reported quarter-end liquidity leave room for recovery if customer cost reimbursements arrive and awards convert at acceptable margins. [#SEC-8K-2026-11-05]
Bear Case
The adjusted EBITDA guidance midpoint fell from $280 million to $240 million, while nine-month free cash flow was negative $87.6 million. Q3 adjusted loss of $0.11 per share also fell short of the $0.31 profit consensus reported by Zacks. No verified post-print analyst rating, target, or forward-estimate revision is available. [#SEC-8K-2026-11-05]
Drivers
Scannable catalysts and supporting factors
- Customer cost-recovery execution
- New-business award conversion
Scenarios
Bull Target (Scenario probability)
$26 / p=25% prob
Base Target (Scenario probability)
$18 / p=45% prob
Bear Target (Scenario probability)
$12 / p=30% prob
Analysis 2026-11-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.
Sentiment & Exposure
News Sentiment (30d)
-0.50
Social Sentiment (7d)
0.00
Events
Other notable items detected
- EVENT2026-11-05Q3 earnings and 2026 guidance cutQ3 sales rose 1.9% to $708.6 million, but adjusted EBITDA slipped to $52.8 million and free cash flow was negative $10.8 million. Cooper Standard cut full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $235–245 million from $265–295 million, citing higher-than-expected commodity costs and inflation. The guidance cut is the decisive change from the prior monitoring thesis. [#SEC-8K-2026-11-05] [#8-K-2026-11-05]Prob 100.00% • Move -20.00% • Priced-in 75.00%
Short-term Catalysts
Next few weeks
- Customer cost-recovery execution2027-03-31Management is renegotiating commercial agreements and seeking faster cost recoveries. Evidence that recoveries offset material-cost and inflation pressure would help stabilize margins; further delays would challenge the reduced 2026 outlook. [#SEC-8K-2026-11-05]Prob 50% • Move 10% • Priced-in 30%
Long-term Catalysts
Months to a year
- New-business award conversion2027-12-31Q3 net new-business awards totaled $148.8 million in anticipated incremental future annualized sales. Conversion into profitable production—not awards alone—is the longer-term test. [#SEC-8K-2026-11-05]Prob 55% • Move 15% • Priced-in 25%
Risks
- Commodity costs and general inflation exceeded management's prior expectations, prompting a substantial adjusted EBITDA guidance cut. [#SEC-8K-2026-11-05]
- Customer cost recoveries may arrive later than needed, and new-business awards may not convert into profitable revenue. [#SEC-8K-2026-11-05]
- Q3 free cash flow was negative $10.8 million and nine-month free cash flow was negative $87.6 million; cash fell to $112.3 million at September 30. [#SEC-8K-2026-11-05]
Peers
| Symbol | Summary |
|---|---|
| HLLY | Same-sector, similar-size candidate, but its aftermarket orientation limits operating comparability. |
| STRT | Automotive-components screening candidate; product and customer overlap with Cooper Standard's sealing and fluid-handling businesses is unverified, so it is not a direct valuation peer. |
Sources
Internal and external references used in this analysis
- Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
- Analysis date: 2026-11-05