CPS

AI Memo

Cooper-Standard

As of 2026-08-07/Confidence medium/Horizon 6‑12m

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-08-07 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

6‑12m

Key catalyst

Potential second-half cost recovery • 2026-11-05

Expected move: +16%

Biggest risk

The Q2 adjusted loss, lower adjusted EBITDA, negative year-to-date free cash flow, material-cost inflation, tariffs, and unfavorable volume/mix leave limited room for execution misses.

Invalidation

Break below $21 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Positive Q2 operating cash flow, continued customer awards, and expected second-half cost recovery could improve EBITDA and cash generation while full-year guidance remains intact.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-08-07

Base target

$32

p=50%

Bull target

$38

p=25%

Bear target

$21

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q2 results show positive free cash flow and maintained guidance
New-business awards support longer-term growth visibility
Positive Q2 operating cash flow, continued customer awards, and expected second-half cost recovery could improve EBITDA and cash generation while full-year guidance remains intact.

BearKey bullets

Full-year guidance was maintained rather than raised, and its achievement depends partly on second-half cost recovery.
Higher material costs, inflation, customs duties, and tariffs pressured profitability.
Low analyst coverage and unavailable confirmed consensus detail reduce visibility into revisions and valuation.

WatchKey bullets

Potential second-half cost recovery

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

6‑12m

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $32 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +38% / -24%

Vs latest close: Bull +38% · Base +16% · Bear -24%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $38 (p=25%)Base Target: $32 (p=50%)Bear Target: $21 (p=25%)

Commentary

Primary-source evidence is strong, but the signal is mixed: sales, Q2 cash flow, awards, and maintained guidance are constructive, while EBITDA, adjusted earnings, and year-to-date cash flow remain weak. Recent coverage is sparse, social data is unavailable, and post-earnings analyst revisions or detailed market-reaction attribution are not provided. This supports cautious monitoring rather than a high-conviction bullish view.

As of 2026-08-07 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Positive Q2 operating cash flow, continued customer awards, and expected second-half cost recovery could improve EBITDA and cash generation while full-year guidance remains intact.

Bear Case

The Q2 adjusted loss, lower adjusted EBITDA, negative year-to-date free cash flow, material-cost inflation, tariffs, and unfavorable volume/mix leave limited room for execution misses.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q2 results show positive free cash flow and maintained guidance
New-business awards support longer-term growth visibility

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$38 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$32 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$21 / p=25% prob

Price $28 as of 2026-08-06

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 16%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +38% · Base +16% · Bear -24%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-11-05
Potential second-half cost recovery
Management expects to recover most incremental oil-price-driven cost inflation in the second half of 2026, supporting its full-year sales and profitability targets if execution remains on track. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
Prob 55.00% • Move 10.00% • Priced-in 35.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q2 results show positive free cash flow and maintained guidance
2026-08-07
Q2 sales rose 2.2% year over year to $721.3 million, free cash flow was $16.3 million, and management maintained the midpoint of full-year guidance. However, adjusted EBITDA declined and the company posted an adjusted net loss. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
Prob 70% • Move 6% • Priced-in 60%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

New-business awards support longer-term growth visibility
2026-12-31
The company reported $118.4 million of net new-business awards in Q2 and continues to emphasize profitable growth through customer awards, operating improvement, and manufacturing efficiency. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
Prob 65% • Move 18% • Priced-in 25%

Risks

Full-year guidance was maintained rather than raised, and its achievement depends partly on second-half cost recovery.
Higher material costs, inflation, customs duties, and tariffs pressured profitability.
Low analyst coverage and unavailable confirmed consensus detail reduce visibility into revisions and valuation.
Q2 adjusted EBITDA fell to $53.9 million from $62.8 million year over year.
The adjusted net loss widened to $2.3 million from adjusted net income of $1.0 million year over year.
Year-to-date free cash flow was negative $76.9 million despite positive Q2 free cash flow.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
ECX	Same-sector, similar-market-cap screening candidate; direct operating comparability is unverified.
HLLY	Same-sector, similar-market-cap screening candidate; not confirmed as a close operating peer.
LOT	Same-sector screening candidate with similar market capitalization; business overlap with CPS is loose.
SLDP	Same-sector, similar-market-cap screening candidate; operating comparability is limited.
STRT	Same-sector, similar-market-cap screening candidate; direct peer relationship is unverified.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-08-07

AI Stock Memo: CPS - Cooper-Standard - RankAlpha