AI Stock Memo: CMPS - COMPASS Pathways - RankAlpha

CMPS

Rating buyAI Memo

COMPASS Pathways

As of 2026-02-26/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-26 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Late-stage clinical / regulatory milestone (assumed) • 2026-08-25

Expected move: -39%

Biggest risk

Trial failures, regulatory setbacks, or dilutive financings would compress multiples and push the share price materially lower.

Invalidation

Break below $5 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Positive late-stage readouts, constructive FDA interactions, and payer traction could re-rate COMPASS toward analyst upside within 12 months.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-26

Base target

p=60%

Bull target

$16

p=20%

Bear target

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Analyst re-ratings / coverage updates
Commercial / reimbursement progress
Positive late-stage readouts, constructive FDA interactions, and payer traction could re-rate COMPASS toward analyst upside within 12 months.

BearKey bullets

Binary clinical trial/readout failure
Dilution and financing needs
Limited payer/reimbursement adoption

WatchKey bullets

Late-stage clinical / regulatory milestone (assumed)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $8 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +20% / -59%

Vs latest close: Bull +20% · Base -39% · Bear -59%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $16 (p=20%)Base Target: $8 (p=60%)Bear Target: $5 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market tone is mixed-to-cautious with wide analyst target dispersion. Recent filings and prospectus activity increased near-term dilution concern; sentiment will remain event-driven around clinical/regulatory milestones.

As of 2026-02-26 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Positive late-stage readouts, constructive FDA interactions, and payer traction could re-rate COMPASS toward analyst upside within 12 months.

Bear Case

Trial failures, regulatory setbacks, or dilutive financings would compress multiples and push the share price materially lower.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Analyst re-ratings / coverage updates
Commercial / reimbursement progress

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-26Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$8.17

Range (USD)

$7.85 - $19.50

Count

Query: COMPASS Pathways Plc ADR (CMPS) analyst consensus price target high low average

COMPASS Pathways PLC Sponsored ADR (CMPS) Price Targets
Search result #1
The forecasts range from a low of $8.00 to a high of $40.00. The average price target represents an increase of 143.05% from the last closing price of $7.99.
Extracted: $8.00, $40.00, $7.99Open source
COMPASS Pathways PLC ADR Analyst Estimates - MarketWatch
Search result #2
Stock Price Targets. High, $40.00. Median, $19.50. Low, $8.00. Average, $19.33. Current Price, $8.26. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. CMPS will report 2025 earnings ...
Extracted: $40.00, $19.50, $8.00, $19.33, $8.26Open source
COMPASS Pathways plc - Depositary Receipt (CMPS) Price Target ...
Search result #3
The latest targets range from a low of $8.08 to a high of $42.00 / share. The average price target represents an increase of 148.36% from the ...
Extracted: $8.08, $42.00Open source22 hours ago
Compass Pathways (CMPS) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2026
Search result #4
According to the 10 analysts' twelve-month price targets for Compass Pathways, the average price target is $17.56. The highest price target for CMPS is $40.00, ...
Extracted: $17.56, $40.00Open source
CMPS Analyst Ratings for Compass Pathways Plc ADR Stock
Search result #5
... Analyst Target Prices. HIGH TARGET. MEAN TARGET. LOW TARGET. 52 WK High. 52 WK Low. Average Analyst Ratings. 3 Mths Ago. Strong Buy. 4.55. Based on 11 analysts.
Open source
COMPASS Pathways plc (CMPS) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #6
Find the latest COMPASS Pathways plc (CMPS) stock quote, history, news and other vital information to help you with your stock trading and investing.
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$16 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$8 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$5 / p=20% prob

Price $13 as of 2026-07-14

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 20%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +20% · Base -39% · Bear -59%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-08-25
Late-stage clinical / regulatory milestone (assumed)
Binary COMP360 readout or regulatory milestone could sharply re-rate the stock; no firm public date so an assumed planning date is used (see valuation_check).
Prob 20.00% • Move 120.00% • Priced-in 10.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Analyst re-ratings / coverage updates
2026-05-27
Near-term analyst target revisions or new coverage could widen or compress the trading range; aggregator snippets show wide dispersion.
Prob 40% • Move 15% • Priced-in 30%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Commercial / reimbursement progress
2027-02-26
Payer engagement, commercialization milestones, or a partnering deal would support multi-period re-rating; timeline and execution risk remain material.
Prob 40% • Move 150% • Priced-in 5%

Risks

Binary clinical trial/readout failure
Dilution and financing needs
Limited payer/reimbursement adoption
Unfavorable or delayed regulatory feedback

Peers

Symbol	Summary
ATAI	Atai Life Sciences — diversified psychedelics platform; useful comparator for funding and sentiment dynamics.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: COMPASS Pathways Plc ADR (CMPS) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-26