CLPT

Rating neutralAI MemoPost-earnings T+3

ClearPoint Neuro

As of 2026-05-16/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

New product and geography milestones need to convert into paid procedures • 2026-09-30

Expected move: -13%

Biggest risk

The bear read is that headline growth still came with an EPS miss versus consensus in post-release coverage, ongoing operating losses, roughly $8.0 million of quarterly operating cash burn, and dependence on partner clinical progress plus successful IRRAS integration. Revision evidence also looks thin rather than broad-based.

Invalidation

Break below $8 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The bull read after earnings is that CLPT delivered record revenue, 16% organic total growth, 25% organic device growth, higher gross margin, and maintained a full-year revenue outlook while pointing to IRRAS revenue and cost synergies in 2H26 [#8-K-2026-05-13].

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-16

Base target

$11

p=40%

Bull target

$17

p=25%

Bear target

p=35%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q1 print showed strong growth but did not clearly change the monitoring thesis
Biopharma-partner and installed-base expansion can support growth, but timing is hard to underwrite
The bull read after earnings is that CLPT delivered record revenue, 16% organic total growth, 25% organic device growth, higher gross margin, and maintained a full-year revenue outlook while pointing to IRRAS revenue and cost synergies in 2H26 [#8-K-2026-05-13].

BearKey bullets

Growth depends in part on partner clinical, regulatory, and funding progress across the biopharma pipeline, which management does not fully control [#10-Q-2026-05-13].
IRRAS integration is a key part of the 2026-2027 synergy story; if product uptake or cost synergies slip, the cash-neutrality narrative for 2027 weakens [#8-K-2026-05-13].
Long-term notes payable were about $49.6 million at March 31, 2026, with effective interest expense elevated by 2025 debt financing and revenue-participation features beginning in 2027 [#10-Q-2026-05-13].

WatchKey bullets

New product and geography milestones need to convert into paid procedures

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $11 (p=40%)

Bull/Bear spread: +34% / -41%

Vs latest close: Bull +34% · Base -13% · Bear -41%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $17 (p=25%)Base Target: $11 (p=40%)Bear Target: $8 (p=35%)

Commentary

Post-earnings tone is mixed but cautious. The company source showed strong growth and maintained guidance, yet trusted market coverage highlighted an EPS miss and only modest consensus revenue performance. A secondary earnings feed showed shares down about 5% immediately after the release, and the May 15 anchor price of $11.64 suggests the initial skepticism had not fully reversed by T+3. Analyst-revision visibility remains thin, which argues for a monitoring stance rather than a strong post-print upgrade.

As of 2026-05-16 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q1 print showed strong growth but did not clearly change the monitoring thesis
Biopharma-partner and installed-base expansion can support growth, but timing is hard to underwrite

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$17 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$11 / p=40% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$8 / p=35% prob

Price $13 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 13%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +34% · Base -13% · Bear -41%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

-0.20

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-09-30
New product and geography milestones need to convert into paid procedures
Management highlighted FDA-cleared Velocity Alpha's first clinical use and a Health Canada device license for the navigation system, with first Canadian cases scheduled; the next proof point is whether these milestones turn into recurring case volume and equipment placements rather than one-off announcements [#8-K-2026-05-13].
Prob 55.00% • Move 12.00% • Priced-in 30.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q1 print showed strong growth but did not clearly change the monitoring thesis
2026-08-15
Q1 2026 revenue was $12.1 million, up 43% year over year, with gross margin at 64%; management kept 2026 revenue outlook at $52.0-$56.0 million and said IRRAS integration synergies should reduce cash burn in 2H26, but the company still used about $8.0 million of operating cash in Q1 and remains loss-making [#8-K-2026-05-13] [#10-Q-2026-05-13].
Prob 75% • Move 6% • Priced-in 65%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Biopharma-partner and installed-base expansion can support growth, but timing is hard to underwrite
2026-12-31
ClearPoint said its activated installed base now exceeds 175 global centers and that it is progressing work across more than 60 active biopharma partners; that creates real optionality for procedure growth and future delivery revenue, but milestone timing remains dependent on partner funding, enrollment, regulatory progress, and adoption [#8-K-2026-05-13].
Prob 40% • Move 20% • Priced-in 25%

Risks

Growth depends in part on partner clinical, regulatory, and funding progress across the biopharma pipeline, which management does not fully control [#10-Q-2026-05-13].
IRRAS integration is a key part of the 2026-2027 synergy story; if product uptake or cost synergies slip, the cash-neutrality narrative for 2027 weakens [#8-K-2026-05-13].
Long-term notes payable were about $49.6 million at March 31, 2026, with effective interest expense elevated by 2025 debt financing and revenue-participation features beginning in 2027 [#10-Q-2026-05-13].
Operating cash burn remained about $8.0 million in Q1 2026 even after revenue growth, so the path to a lower burn rate still needs proof.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
BSX	Boston Scientific is only a loose comp, but it is a useful reference for hospital-based device adoption, procedure pull-through, and commercialization discipline; CLPT is far earlier-stage and much smaller.
EW	Edwards Lifesciences is also a loose comp rather than a direct peer; it frames how medtech investors reward durable procedure growth and margin consistency, two areas CLPT still needs to prove.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-16

AI Stock Memo: CLPT - ClearPoint Neuro - RankAlpha