AI Stock Memo: BTI - British American Tobacco - RankAlpha

BTI

Rating sellAI Memo

British American Tobacco

As of 2026-01-24/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

sell

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

FY2025 earnings release • 2026-02-12

Expected move: -13%

Biggest risk

Bear case assumes weaker-than-expected volume recovery, adverse excise/regulatory actions, and persistent FX/headline pressure that force multiple compression and a move toward the lower analyst range.

Invalidation

Break below $31 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case assumes successful premiumization and faster-than-expected mix shift to higher-margin next-generation products, stable pricing in key markets, and positive investor reaction to margin guidance; this supports upside toward the analyst high region.

Research note

Recommendation

sell

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-24

Base target

$51

p=50%

Bull target

$70

p=20%

Bear target

$31

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Regulatory / excise-tax headlines
Portfolio / product mix shift and margin recovery
Bull case assumes successful premiumization and faster-than-expected mix shift to higher-margin next-generation products, stable pricing in key markets, and positive investor reaction to margin guidance; this supports upside toward the analyst high region.

BearKey bullets

Adverse excise or regulatory changes in major markets
Slower adoption of next‑generation products or weaker combustible volume recovery
Bear case assumes weaker-than-expected volume recovery, adverse excise/regulatory actions, and persistent FX/headline pressure that force multiple compression and a move toward the lower analyst range.

WatchKey bullets

FY2025 earnings release

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

sell

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $51 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +19% / -48%

Vs latest close: Bull +19% · Base -13% · Bear -48%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $70 (p=20%)Base Target: $51 (p=50%)Bear Target: $31 (p=30%)

Commentary

Market tone is mixed: the analyst median sits below the current broker-last anchor, suggesting limited consensus upside versus spot [#SERP-1]. A smaller cohort of analysts projects upside to the high $60s–$70s, supporting a balanced view between cautious and opportunistic positions [#SERP-2]. Near-term sentiment will be driven by the FY2025 results and any guidance or capital-allocation signals on 2026-02-12 [#SERP-6].

As of 2026-01-24 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Regulatory / excise-tax headlines
Portfolio / product mix shift and margin recovery

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-24Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$51.00

Range (USD)

$16.55 - $70.00

Count

Query: British American Tobacco PLC ADR (BTI) analyst consensus price target high low average

BTI | British American Tobacco PLC ADR Analyst Estimates
Search result #1
Stock Price Targets. High, $52.00. Median, $46.50. Low, $30.50. Average, $45.15. Current Price, $57.71. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. BTI will report 2025 earnings ...
Extracted: $52.00, $46.50, $30.50, $45.15, $57.71Open source
BTI | British American Tobacco PLC ADR Analyst Estimates & Ratings
Search result #2
Stock Price Target BTI. High, $70.00. Median, $69.00. Low, $40.50. Average, $59.83. Current Price, $56.32. Related Links: Options · Overview · Research & ...
Extracted: $70.00, $69.00, $40.50, $59.83, $56.32Open source
British American Tobacco p.l.c. Stock Forecast | BTI Price Target ...
Search result #3
Based on 18 analysts in the last 3 months, the overall rating is Buy with a 12-month price target of $40.00, representing 0.00% downside from the current ...
Extracted: $40.00Open source
BTI Stock Price, Forecast & Analysis | BRITISH AMERICAN TOB-SP ...
Search result #4
20 analysts have analysed BTI and the average price target is 62.63 USD. ... British American Tobacco plc is a holding company, which engages in the ...
Extracted: $62.63Open source
British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) Analyst Ratings, Estimates ...
Search result #5
See British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) stock analyst estimates, including earnings and revenue, EPS, upgrades and downgrades.
Open source
British American Tobacco PLC ADR Research & Ratings | BTI
Search result #6
ConsensusBuyBuy. Stock Price Target. High, $52.00. Low, $30.50. Average, $45.15. Current Price, $56.32. BTI will report FY 2025 earnings on 02/12/2026. Yearly ...
Extracted: $52.00, $30.50, $45.15, $56.32Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$70 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$51 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$31 / p=30% prob

Price $59 as of 2026-07-15

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 13%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +19% · Base -13% · Bear -48%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-02-12
FY2025 earnings release
Full-year 2025 results and management commentary; date reported in analyst summaries as 2026-02-12 and likely to drive near-term revisions to guidance and targets [#SERP-6].
Prob 95.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 70.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Regulatory / excise-tax headlines
2026-04-24
Country-level excise changes or tightened nicotine regulation could pressure volumes and margins; timing uncertain so assumed short window (conservative date used) [#SERP-1].
Prob 25% • Move 10% • Priced-in 30%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Portfolio / product mix shift and margin recovery
2027-01-24
Longer-term improvement potential from higher-margin next-generation products and cost actions; outcome depends on execution and market adoption (assumed long horizon) [#SERP-2].
Prob 35% • Move 20% • Priced-in 20%

Risks

Adverse excise or regulatory changes in major markets
Slower adoption of next‑generation products or weaker combustible volume recovery

Peers

Symbol	Summary
PM	Philip Morris International — similar global tobacco exposure and next-generation product push; useful global revenue comparitor.
MO	Altria Group — U.S.-centric tobacco and vaping exposure; comparable dividend/return profile and regulatory sensitivity.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: British American Tobacco PLC ADR (BTI) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-24