BLDP

Rating neutralAI Memo

Ballard Power

As of 2026-04-16/Confidence medium/Horizon 3m

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-04-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

Key catalyst

Q1 2026 results & conference call (reported cadence) • 2026-07-15

Expected move: -38%

Biggest risk

Bear: Execution and timing risk on converting announced purchase orders; persistent negative EPS, need for dilution/raise if cash burn continues, and slow adoption of fuel‑cell systems keep multiples compressed.

Invalidation

Break below $1 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull: Order momentum converts to multi‑year revenue visibility; margins improve with scale and product mix and partnerships accelerate commercial deployments, supporting a meaningful multiple re‑rating.

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-04-16

Base target

p=50%

Bull target

p=20%

Bear target

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Backlog/order conversion from recently disclosed purchase orders (commercial engines)
Bull: Order momentum converts to multi‑year revenue visibility; margins improve with scale and product mix and partnerships accelerate commercial deployments, supporting a meaningful multiple re‑rating.
ANCHOR: {"price": 3.07, "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-15T00:00:00Z", "source": "rankalpha_api_adj_close"} ANALYST_TARGETS_REVIEWED: true Analyst median target (~$2.65) sits slightly below the current anchor; my base ($2.70) tracks near that median while the bull case (5.00) assumes material backlog conversion and margin expansion; the bear ($1.20) reflects execution/dilution risk [#SERP-3].

BearKey bullets

Cash runway and need for equity raises
Execution risks in manufacturing scale-up
Order conversion delays or cancellations

WatchKey bullets

Q1 2026 results & conference call (reported cadence)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $3 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +14% / -73%

Vs latest close: Bull +14% · Base -38% · Bear -73%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $5 (p=20%)Base Target: $3 (p=50%)Bear Target: $1 (p=30%)

Commentary

Market tone is mixed: recent PRs highlight strong Q4/2025 revenue growth and reported purchase orders, which supported modest optimism among investors [#PR-undated] [#IR-undated]. However analyst targets are widely dispersed (low-to-high), reflecting uncertainty on timing and execution [#SERP-1] . Overall coverage signals cautious interest but elevated operational risk.

As of 2026-04-16 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Backlog/order conversion from recently disclosed purchase orders (commercial engines)

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-04-16Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$2.65

Range (USD)

$1.30 - $10.00

Count

Query: Ballard Power Systems Inc Common (BLDP) analyst consensus price target high low average

Ballard Power Systems Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #1
Last Close Price. 2.707USD. Average target price. 1.920USD. Spread / Average Target. -29.09%. High Price Target. 2.569USD. Spread / Highest target. -5.12%. Low ...
Extracted: $2.71, $1.92, $2.57Open source
Ballard Power Systems Inc. Analyst Estimates - BLDP - MarketWatch
Search result #3
Stock Price Targets. High, $3.50. Median, $2.65. Low, $1.70. Average, $2.65. Current Price, $2.9400. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. BLDP will report 2026 earnings ...
Extracted: $3.50, $2.65, $1.70, $2.94Open source
Ballard (BLDP) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com
Search result #4
View Ballard stock forecast data, including BLDP stock price estimates and 12-month Ballard price targets, to assess potential upside or downside.
Open source
BLDP Analyst Ratings for Ballard Power Sys Stock - Barchart.com
Search result #6
... Analyst Target Prices. HIGH TARGET. MEAN TARGET. LOW TARGET. 52 WK High. 52 WK Low. Average Analyst Ratings. 3 Mths Ago. Hold. 2.63. Based on 16 analysts.
Open source
BLDP - Ballard Power Systems - Stock Forecast - AnaChart
Search result #7
Highest price target for BLDP is $2.5, Lowest price target is $1.3, average price target is $1.8. Most recent stock forecast was given by PRANEETH SATISH from ...
Extracted: $2.50, $1.30, $1.80Open source
BLDP Forecast, Price Target & Analyst Ratings - ChartMill
Search result #8
BLDP is expected to report earnings on 5/3/2026. The consensus EPS estimate for the next earnings is -0.06 USD and the consensus revenue estimate is 20.19M USD.
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$5 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$3 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$1 / p=30% prob

Price $4 as of 2026-06-18

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 14%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +14% · Base -38% · Bear -73%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-07-15
Q1 2026 results & conference call (reported cadence)
Company scheduled Q1 2026 results / conference call noted on the Investor Hub; near-term quarterly report should provide updated revenue, margin and backlog conversion detail that will move the stock [#IR-undated].
Prob 75.00% • Move 10.00% • Priced-in 40.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Backlog/order conversion from recently disclosed purchase orders (commercial engines)
2027-04-16
Management press releases reference new purchase orders (e.g., 6.4 MW fuel cell engines) and strong Q4/2025 revenue growth; successful execution and OEM/shipper deployments over the next 12 months could materially lift revenue and re-rate multiple [#PR-undated] [#IR-undated].
Prob 45% • Move 60% • Priced-in 20%

Risks

Cash runway and need for equity raises
Execution risks in manufacturing scale-up
Order conversion delays or cancellations
Slower adoption of fuel-cell systems by key end markets

Peers

Symbol	Summary
ADSE	ADS‑TEC Energy: battery and energy storage systems competitor addressing grid/transport electrification projects; comparable project‑scale deployment dynamics.
ERII	Energy Recovery: industrial energy‑equipment provider with project/order cadence and engineering execution risks similar to capital equipment supply cycles.
NRGV	Energy Vault Holdings: energy infrastructure project developer with multi‑quarter order conversion timelines and partner deployment risk comparable to Ballard's project rollouts.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Ballard Power Systems Inc Common (BLDP) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-04-16

AI Stock Memo: BLDP - Ballard Power - RankAlpha