AI Stock Memo: BBVA - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria - RankAlpha

BBVA

AI Memo

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria

As of 2026-02-04/Confidence medium/Horizon 3m

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

Key catalyst

FY2025 earnings release • 2026-02-05

Expected move: +9%

Biggest risk

Assumes macro slowdown or LatAm/FX shocks raising provisions and constraining distributions, compressing multiples toward the analyst low of 19.97.

Invalidation

Break below $20 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Assumes NII uplift, contained credit costs, and resumed capital returns; upside is modest and capped near the analyst high of 28.73 given the tight consensus band.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-04

Base target

$26

p=60%

Bull target

$29

p=25%

Bear target

$20

p=15%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Consensus target reversion / capital returns
Assumes NII uplift, contained credit costs, and resumed capital returns; upside is modest and capped near the analyst high of 28.73 given the tight consensus band.
ANCHOR: {"price": 25.93, "timestamp_utc": "2026-02-02T00:00:00Z", "source": "rankalpha_api_adj_close"} ANALYST_TARGETS_REVIEWED: true Targets map to the aggregated analyst low/median/high: bear=19.97, base=25.58, bull=28.73.

BearKey bullets

Adverse FX or geopolitical shocks affecting key markets
Earnings miss or weak guidance on 2026-02-05
Higher-than-expected loan-loss provisions from regional exposures

WatchKey bullets

FY2025 earnings release

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $26 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +23% / -15%

Vs latest close: Bull +23% · Base +9% · Bear -15%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $29 (p=25%)Base Target: $26 (p=60%)Bear Target: $20 (p=15%)

Commentary

Analyst coverage shows a tight band with median ~25.58 and high ~28.73, implying limited consensus upside. Near-term sentiment is event-driven around the FY2025 report (2026-02-05); beats could lift valuation toward 28.73, misses toward 19.97.

As of 2026-02-04 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Assumes NII uplift, contained credit costs, and resumed capital returns; upside is modest and capped near the analyst high of 28.73 given the tight consensus band.

Bear Case

Assumes macro slowdown or LatAm/FX shocks raising provisions and constraining distributions, compressing multiples toward the analyst low of 19.97.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Consensus target reversion / capital returns

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-04Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$25.58

Range (USD)

$19.97 - $28.73

Count

Query: Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA ADR (BBVA) analyst consensus price target high low average

BBVA | Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A. ADR Analyst ...
Search result #1
Stock Price Target BBVA. High, $28.73. Median, $25.72. Low, $19.97. Average, $25.17. Current Price, $25.86. Related Links: Options · Overview · Research & ...
Extracted: $28.73, $25.72, $19.97, $25.17, $25.86Open source
BBVA | Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A. ADR Analyst Estimates
Search result #2
Stock Price Targets. High, $28.73. Median, $25.72. Low, $19.97. Average, $25.17. Current Price, $25.44. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. BBVA will report 2025 ...
Extracted: $28.73, $25.72, $19.97, $25.17, $25.44Open source
BBVA Stock Quote Price and Forecast - CNN
Search result #3
BBVA is trading near the top of its 52-week range and above its 200-day simple moving average. ... The price of BBVA shares has decreased $0.25 since the market ...
Open source
BBVA Forecast — Price Target — Prediction for 2027 - TradingView
Search result #4
According to analysts, BBVA price target is 21.56 EUR with a max estimate of 24.50 EUR and a min estimate of 17.40 EUR. Check if this forecast comes true in a ...
Open source
Banco Bilbao (BBVA) Price Targets - Zacks Investment Research
Search result #5
Only one analyst offered a short-term price target of $28.50 for Banco Bilbao. This represents an increase of 9.91% from the last closing price of $25.93.
Extracted: $28.50, $25.93Open source
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA) Analyst Ratings ...
Search result #6
See Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA) stock analyst estimates, including earnings and revenue, EPS, upgrades and downgrades.
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$29 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$26 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$20 / p=15% prob

Price $23 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 9%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +23% · Base +9% · Bear -15%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-02-05
FY2025 earnings release
FY2025 results scheduled; analyst feeds note an FY2025 earnings report on 2026-02-05 [#SERP-8]. Results could drive near-term re-rating depending on NII and credit provisions.
Prob 80.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 60.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Consensus target reversion / capital returns
2027-02-04
Consensus price-target range shows modest upside potential (median ~$25.58, high ~$28.73) and could drive multi-quarter reversion if macro/FX stabilize [#SERP-1] (assumes continued capital distributions and stable provisions).
Prob 70% • Move 15% • Priced-in 50%

Risks

Adverse FX or geopolitical shocks affecting key markets
Earnings miss or weak guidance on 2026-02-05
Higher-than-expected loan-loss provisions from regional exposures

Peers

Symbol	Summary
SAN	Iberian universal bank; direct comp for Spanish mortgage and retail macro sensitivity.
ITUB	Large Latin American universal bank; relevant for FX exposure and regional credit trends.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA ADR (BBVA) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-04