AMAL

Rating sellAI Memo

Amalgamated Financial

As of 2026-01-24/Confidence high

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

sell

Confidence

high

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Analyst target revisions / consensus updates • 2026-02-28

Expected move: -31%

Biggest risk

Bear assumes deposit outflows, NII compression, or CRE/credit deterioration that depress earnings and push consensus toward the analyst low, consistent with the bear_target.

Invalidation

Break below $32 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull requires meaningful NII improvement, sustained cost discipline, and credible capital returns that narrow the valuation gap to peers and drive multiple expansion toward the bull_target.

Research note

Recommendation

sell

Confidence

high

As of

2026-01-24

Base target

$34

p=55%

Bull target

$48

p=20%

Bear target

$32

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q4 / FY2025 earnings release and guidance
Execution of strategic initiatives / cost program or M&A
Bull requires meaningful NII improvement, sustained cost discipline, and credible capital returns that narrow the valuation gap to peers and drive multiple expansion toward the bull_target.

BearKey bullets

Commercial real estate or broader credit deterioration
Deposit outflows / funding stress
Margin compression from rates or competition

WatchKey bullets

Analyst target revisions / consensus updates

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

sell

Model confidence

high

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $34 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: -3% / -35%

Vs latest close: Bull -3% · Base -31% · Bear -35%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $48 (p=20%)Base Target: $34 (p=55%)Bear Target: $32 (p=25%)

Commentary

Consensus median sits near $34, below the current anchor; a small analyst sample and tight target range imply low conviction. Market commentary is cautious — price is sensitive to earnings/guidance and any coordinated target cuts.

As of 2026-01-24 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bull requires meaningful NII improvement, sustained cost discipline, and credible capital returns that narrow the valuation gap to peers and drive multiple expansion toward the bull_target.

Bear Case

Bear assumes deposit outflows, NII compression, or CRE/credit deterioration that depress earnings and push consensus toward the analyst low, consistent with the bear_target.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q4 / FY2025 earnings release and guidance
Execution of strategic initiatives / cost program or M&A

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-24Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$34.00

Range (USD)

$31.94 - $35.19

Count

Query: Amalgamated Financial Corp Common (AMAL) analyst consensus price target high low average

Amalgamated Bank (AMAL) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #1
According to projections from 2 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Amalgamated Bank is 34.50, with a high estimate of 36 and a low estimate of ...
Open source
Amalgamated Financial Corp. (AMAL) Stock Price, News, Quote ...
Search result #2
Find the latest Amalgamated Financial Corp. (AMAL) stock quote, history, news and other vital information to help you with your stock trading and investing.
Open source
Amalgamated Financial Corp.: Target Price Consensus and ...
Search result #3
Amalgamated Financial Corp. analysts consensus, targets, ratings and recommendations | Deutsche Boerse AG: A0B0 | Deutsche Boerse AG.
Open source
AMALGAMATED FINANCIAL CORP (AMAL) Stock Price, Forecast ...
Search result #4
AMAL Forecast & Estimates 8 analysts have analysed AMAL and the average price target is 35.19 USD. This implies a price decrease of -5.63% is expected in the ...
Extracted: $35.19Open source
Amalgamated Financial (AMAL) Stock Price & Overview
Search result #5
According to 2 analysts, the average rating for AMAL stock is "Buy." The 12-month stock price target is $33.5, which is a decrease of -3.32% from the latest ...
Extracted: $33.50Open source
AMAL Amalgamated Financial Corp. Stock Price & Overview
Search result #6
2 analysts have issued ratings. Wall Street analysts rate AMAL as Bullish on average, for a Wall Street consensus of buy. View AMAL's ratings here. What is ...
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$48 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$34 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$32 / p=25% prob

Price $49 as of 2026-07-31

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 3%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull -3% · Base -31% · Bear -35%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-02-28
Analyst target revisions / consensus updates
Small analyst coverage (2–8 analysts in snippets) implies that published target changes or updates to consensus could shift market view; sources note average targets in the low-mid $30s [#SERP-1], [#SERP-4]. Assumes any update occurs within the next 35 days (end of window used).
Prob 40.00% • Move 5.00% • Priced-in 20.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q4 / FY2025 earnings release and guidance
2026-04-24
Quarterly results and management guidance may drive re-rating; consensus snippets show analyst coverage and price‑target discussion on major quote pages [#SERP-2], [#SERP-7]. Assumes next reported quarter by the short 90-day window.
Prob 60% • Move -10% • Priced-in 50%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Execution of strategic initiatives / cost program or M&A
2027-01-24
Longer-term operational improvements or consolidation could materially lift valuation if delivered; this is a lower-probability, higher-impact outcome and is conditional on board-level action and execution [#SERP-3].
Prob 25% • Move 30% • Priced-in 10%

Risks

Commercial real estate or broader credit deterioration
Deposit outflows / funding stress
Margin compression from rates or competition
Thin analyst coverage and limited liquidity

Peers

Symbol	Summary
CFG	Broader regional franchise — comparator for funding mix, deposit stability, and fee-income diversification.
HBAN	Deposit-focused regional — useful barometer for retail deposit gathering and margin trends.
FNB	Community-focused regional — comparable local-credit sensitivity and loan-growth dynamics.
CUBI	Smaller regional peer — benchmark for branch-led deposit trends, NIM behavior, and capital returns.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Amalgamated Financial Corp Common (AMAL) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-24

AI Stock Memo: AMAL - Amalgamated Financial - RankAlpha