AI Stock Memo: ALTO - Alto Ingredients - RankAlpha

ALTO

Rating buyAI Memo

Alto Ingredients

As of 2026-03-06/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-03-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Analyst coverage and target revisions • 2026-09-30

Expected move: -36%

Biggest risk

Bear thesis: persistent high feedstock costs, weak product demand, or balance-sheet/working-capital stress that impairs operations and liquidity would keep shares at or below the current price toward the bear case.

Invalidation

Break below $3 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull thesis: successful scale-up, sustained feedstock cost improvement, and analyst upgrades trigger a rerating toward published highs; durable margin recovery and visible volume gains drive meaningful upside.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-03-06

Base target

p=60%

Bull target

p=20%

Bear target

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Near-term earnings / guidance update
Operational scale-up and feedstock normalization
Bull thesis: successful scale-up, sustained feedstock cost improvement, and analyst upgrades trigger a rerating toward published highs; durable margin recovery and visible volume gains drive meaningful upside.

BearKey bullets

Execution risk on facility scale-up and working-capital strain
Feedstock price volatility that compresses margins
Low liquidity causing wide spreads and amplified moves

WatchKey bullets

Analyst coverage and target revisions

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $4 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +6% / -52%

Vs latest close: Bull +6% · Base -36% · Bear -52%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $6 (p=20%)Base Target: $4 (p=60%)Bear Target: $3 (p=20%)

Commentary

Sentiment is mixed: the median analyst target (~3.5) exceeds the current anchor (2.6), implying conditional upside if execution and policy align. Coverage is thin and targets are dispersed, increasing sensitivity to news; limited liquidity amplifies price moves.

As of 2026-03-06 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Near-term earnings / guidance update
Operational scale-up and feedstock normalization

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-03-06Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$3.50

Range (USD)

$2.60 - $5.78

Count

Query: Alto Ingredients Inc Common (ALTO) analyst consensus price target high low average

Alto Ingredients (ALTO) Stock Forecast: Analyst Ratings, Predictions ...
Search result #1
Wall Street analysts have set a price target of $5.50, reflecting a 0.00% increase from the current stock price. What is the 2026 price prediction for Alto ...
Extracted: $5.50Open source
Alto Ingredients (ALTO) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2026
Search result #2
According to the 3 analysts' twelve-month price targets for Alto Ingredients, the average price target is $5.50. The highest price target for ALTO is $5.50, ...
Extracted: $5.50Open source
ALTO / Alto Ingredients, Inc. (NasdaqCM) - Forecast, Price Target ...
Search result #3
The average one-year price target for Alto Ingredients, Inc. is $4.34. The forecasts range from a low of $3.03 to a high of $5.78. Read More.
Extracted: $4.34, $3.03, $5.78Open source
ALTO INGREDIENTS INC (ALTO) Stock Analyst Ratings - ChartMill
Search result #4
8 analysts have analysed ALTO and the average price target is 4.34 USD. This implies a price increase of 72.02% is expected in the next year compared to the ...
Extracted: $4.34Open source
Price Target & Analyst Coverage - Alto Ingredients (ALTO) - MLQ.ai
Search result #5
The consensus 12-month price target for Alto Ingredients (ALTO) is $3.50, based on analyst estimates. The highest price target is $3.50, while the lowest is $3 ...
Extracted: $3.50, $3.00Open source
Alto Ingredients Inc. Analyst Estimates - MarketWatch
Search result #6
Stock Price Targets. High, $5.50. Median, $4.25. Low, $3.00. Average, $4.25. Current Price, $2.6000. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. ALTO will report 2025 earnings ...
Extracted: $5.50, $4.25, $3.00, $2.60Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$6 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$4 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$3 / p=20% prob

Price $5 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 6%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +6% · Base -36% · Bear -52%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-09-30
Analyst coverage and target revisions
Periodic analyst revisions or a new coverage initiation could change market perception; assumed window end used for planning as no single public date is guaranteed (assumption noted). Analysts' consensus targets show a spread that could be re-priced on a revision [#SERP-1][#SERP-4].
Prob 40.00% • Move 50.00% • Priced-in 30.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Near-term earnings / guidance update
2026-06-04
Next quarterly earnings may show margin recovery or continued pressure from feedstock and credit markets; a positive surprise could re-rate shares while another miss would deepen downside risk. Analysts' estimates and consensus targets provide a reference frame for expectations [#SERP-6][#SERP-2].
Prob 60% • Move 30% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Operational scale-up and feedstock normalization
2027-03-06
Medium-to-long term value depends on successful scale-up of biorefinery operations and normalization of feedstock costs; sustained margin improvement would materially raise intrinsic value versus peers [#SERP-3].
Prob 50% • Move 120% • Priced-in 20%

Risks

Execution risk on facility scale-up and working-capital strain
Feedstock price volatility that compresses margins
Low liquidity causing wide spreads and amplified moves
Regulatory or credit-market shifts reducing renewable-fuel economics

Peers

Symbol	Summary
GEVO	Developer of renewable and low-carbon fuels; similar execution and policy sensitivity that can drive reratings.
DAR	Ingredient and rendering company with diversified downstream channels; useful operational and credit-comparison for ALTO.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Alto Ingredients Inc Common (ALTO) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-03-06