ALNY

AI Memo

Alnylam

As of 2025-12-31/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2025-12-31 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Mid‑stage/late‑stage clinical data readout (assumed window end) • 2026-06-30

Expected move: +30%

Biggest risk

Bear: Clinical setbacks, slower reimbursement or competitive displacement weaken revenue visibility and compress multiples, leaving valuation nearer the bear target of 238.35.

Invalidation

Break below $238 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull: Positive late‑stage readouts, sustained AMVUTTRA uptake, and favorable formulary placements drive above‑consensus revenue and multiple expansion, supporting the bull target of 595.875 within the scenario horizon.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2025-12-31

Base target

$397

p=55%

Bull target

$596

p=25%

Bear target

$238

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Next quarterly earnings release
Commercial uptake and label expansion progress
Bull: Positive late‑stage readouts, sustained AMVUTTRA uptake, and favorable formulary placements drive above‑consensus revenue and multiple expansion, supporting the bull target of 595.875 within the scenario horizon.

BearKey bullets

Clinical trial failures or delays
Commercial adoption slower than modeled
Competitive launches or pricing pressure

WatchKey bullets

Mid‑stage/late‑stage clinical data readout (assumed window end)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $397 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: +95% / -22%

Vs latest close: Bull +95% · Base +30% · Bear -22%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $596 (p=25%)Base Target: $397 (p=55%)Bear Target: $238 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market tone is mixed: investors balance strong enthusiasm for RNAi platform potential with near-term binary clinical and commercialization risks [#IR]. Recent communications emphasize commercial execution and upcoming data windows, tempering exuberance into guarded optimism [#PR]. Overall commentary skews neutral-to-cautious pending confirmed readouts.

As of 2025-12-31 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Bear: Clinical setbacks, slower reimbursement or competitive displacement weaken revenue visibility and compress multiples, leaving valuation nearer the bear target of 238.35.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Next quarterly earnings release
Commercial uptake and label expansion progress

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$596 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$397 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$238 / p=20% prob

Price $305 as of 2026-05-28

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 22%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +95% · Base +30% · Bear -22%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-06-30
Mid‑stage/late‑stage clinical data readout (assumed window end)
Potential program readouts or interim analyses could materially affect valuation; date uses conservative window end assumption when exact public timing is not disclosed [#PR].
Prob 40.00% • Move 20.00% • Priced-in 35.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Next quarterly earnings release
2026-03-31
Quarterly earnings and management commentary may shift near-term sentiment; date estimated conservatively as a short-term catalyst (assumed quarterly cycle) [#IR].
Prob 70% • Move 8% • Priced-in 60%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Commercial uptake and label expansion progress
2026-12-31
Longer‑term adoption of approved RNAi medicines and any label expansions or new approvals drive upside; conservative long horizon used.
Prob 55% • Move 25% • Priced-in 25%

Risks

Clinical trial failures or delays
Commercial adoption slower than modeled
Competitive launches or pricing pressure

Peers

Symbol	Summary
IONS	RNA‑targeted therapeutics pioneer with complementary antisense approach; useful comparator for commercializing nucleic‑acid drugs.
ARWR	Gene‑silencing therapeutics developer with pipeline focus overlapping on hepatic delivery; comparable platform-stage risks.
MRNA	RNA platform leader (mRNA) with scale and commercial execution contrast; useful for platform/technology sentiment comparison.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Analysis date: 2025-12-31

AI Stock Memo: ALNY - Alnylam - RankAlpha