AI Stock Memo: AGYS - Agilysys - RankAlpha

AGYS

AI MemoPost-earnings T+3

Agilysys

As of 2026-05-19/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-19 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

FY26 beat and FY27 guide raise • 2026-05-20

Expected move: +16%

Biggest risk

The bear case is that a lot of good news is already in the stock after a sharp post-earnings move, while the medium-term path still depends on sustaining 30%+ subscription growth and turning AI/module launches into real revenue. The model prior remains negative over the next 20-120 days, so any slowdown in bookings or execution could unwind the re-rating.

Invalidation

Break below $72 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The print strengthens the bull case: record Q4/FY26 revenue, recurring revenue now most of the mix, subscription revenue up 30.2%, and FY27 revenue guidance of $365M-$370M with 24% EBITDA margin imply continued operating leverage. Post-print analyst notes were constructive, with Oppenheimer raising its target to $100 and Cantor maintaining $140.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-19

Base target

$100

p=45%

Bull target

$125

p=25%

Bear target

$72

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Subscription mix and AI product expansion support multi-quarter runway
The print strengthens the bull case: record Q4/FY26 revenue, recurring revenue now most of the mix, subscription revenue up 30.2%, and FY27 revenue guidance of $365M-$370M with 24% EBITDA margin imply continued operating leverage.
Post-print analyst notes were constructive, with Oppenheimer raising its target to $100 and Cantor maintaining $140.

BearKey bullets

FY27 guidance depends on maintaining sales momentum and at least 30% subscription growth; weaker bookings or implementation capacity would pressure the setup.
Management is guiding margin expansion to 24% EBITDA; any execution slippage would limit upside from the earnings beat.
The new AI-native modules are early-stage, so monetization and integration benefits are still unproven.

WatchKey bullets

FY26 beat and FY27 guide raise

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $100 (p=45%)

Bull/Bear spread: +44% / -17%

Vs latest close: Bull +44% · Base +16% · Bear -17%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $125 (p=25%)Base Target: $100 (p=45%)Bear Target: $72 (p=30%)

Commentary

Reaction was constructive but not one-way: AGYS last traded at $78.94 versus the $70.20 anchor price on 2026-05-18, and the stock traded as high as $94.25 intraday. Analyst follow-up has been positive, but only modestly so in the near term: Oppenheimer lifted its target to $100 and Cantor kept $140. That supports a favorable monitoring stance, but the medium-term thesis still depends on FY27 subscription growth and margin delivery.

As of 2026-05-19 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Subscription mix and AI product expansion support multi-quarter runway

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$125 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$100 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$72 / p=30% prob

Price $87 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 16%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +44% · Base +16% · Bear -17%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-20
FY26 beat and FY27 guide raise
Agilysys reported Q4 revenue of $82.9M (+11.7% YoY), adjusted diluted EPS of $0.63, and FY26 revenue of $319.3M; management then guided FY27 revenue to $365M-$370M and adjusted EBITDA margin to 24%, while recurring revenue hit $205.9M and subscription revenue grew 30.2% for the year [#8-K-2026-05-18].
Prob 92.00% • Move 9.50% • Priced-in 58.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Subscription mix and AI product expansion support multi-quarter runway
2026-08-15
Management said fiscal 2026 subscription growth of 30.2% should continue into FY27, and it highlighted development of new AI-native modules (revenue intelligence and CRS) as incremental product leverage within the hospitality software ecosystem [#8-K-2026-05-18].
Prob 63% • Move 8% • Priced-in 35%

Risks

FY27 guidance depends on maintaining sales momentum and at least 30% subscription growth; weaker bookings or implementation capacity would pressure the setup.
Management is guiding margin expansion to 24% EBITDA; any execution slippage would limit upside from the earnings beat.
The new AI-native modules are early-stage, so monetization and integration benefits are still unproven.
The stock already rallied sharply after the report, so further upside depends on follow-through rather than a one-time re-rating.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
ALKT	Loose same-sector software comp; useful for recurring-revenue and margin-discipline comparison, but its banking-software focus is not a direct hospitality match.
RAMP	Enterprise software / subscription-growth comp with a similar valuation sensitivity to ARR expansion and operating leverage, though the end market differs.
SPSC	Recurring-revenue vertical software comp with durable cash generation; a cleaner margin/quality benchmark than a pure growth peer, but still only an approximate compare.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-19