AI Stock Memo: AEHR - Aehr Test - RankAlpha

AEHR

Rating buyAI Memo

Aehr Test

As of 2026-04-08/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-04-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Ongoing bookings / design‑win announcements and quarterly cadence • 2026-12-08

Expected move: -47%

Biggest risk

Initial Sonoma order remains limited volume or delays occur; bookings disappoint and analyst consensus (~$36 median) reasserts, forcing multiple compression from current levels.

Invalidation

Break below $25 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

AI production burn‑in traction (Sonoma) becomes a multi‑customer production ramp; bookings remain strong and Aehr converts design wins into sustained revenue growth and margin expansion.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-04-08

Base target

$60

p=60%

Bull target

$85

p=20%

Bear target

$25

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

AI production burn‑in Sonoma order => multi-quarter revenue ramp
AI production burn‑in traction (Sonoma) becomes a multi‑customer production ramp; bookings remain strong and Aehr converts design wins into sustained revenue growth and margin expansion.
ANCHOR: {"price": 54.47, "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-08T13:04:20+00:00", "source": "broker_last"} ANALYST_TARGETS_REVIEWED: true Analyst median target is $36.33 (count 11, low $21.00, high $52.50); my base target ($60) is meaningfully above the median reflecting the potential upside if AI burn‑in ramps, bull ($85) assumes broad hyperscaler adoption, bear ($25) assumes significant execution/booking setbacks.

BearKey bullets

Customer concentration and order timing
Cyclicality of semiconductor capital spending
Downside if bookings fail to convert to revenue

WatchKey bullets

Ongoing bookings / design‑win announcements and quarterly cadence

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $60 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: -25% / -78%

Vs latest close: Bull -25% · Base -47% · Bear -78%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $85 (p=20%)Base Target: $60 (p=60%)Bear Target: $25 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market commentary is mixed: several sell‑side targets remain well below current levels (median ~$36) while recent company releases highlight AI burn‑in wins and elevated bookings, producing a bifurcated tone [#SERP-1] [#PR-undated]. Short‑term sentiment may track booking/earnings prints and any customer ramp commentary [#10-Q-2026-01-12].

As of 2026-04-08 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

AI production burn‑in traction (Sonoma) becomes a multi‑customer production ramp; bookings remain strong and Aehr converts design wins into sustained revenue growth and margin expansion.

Bear Case

Initial Sonoma order remains limited volume or delays occur; bookings disappoint and analyst consensus (~$36 median) reasserts, forcing multiple compression from current levels.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

AI production burn‑in Sonoma order => multi-quarter revenue ramp

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-04-08Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Below RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$36.33

Range (USD)

$21.00 - $52.50

Count

Query: Aehr Test Systems Common (AEHR) analyst consensus price target high low average

Aehr Test Systems, Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #1
Number of Analysts. 4 ; Last Close Price. 35.67USD ; Average target price. 36.33USD ; Spread / Average Target. +1.86% ; High Price Target. 50.00USD.
Extracted: $35.67, $36.33, $50.00Open source
AEHR Price: Quote, Forecast, Charts & News - Perplexity
Search result #2
Aehr Test Systems surged nearly 12% to close at $44.32 — well above analyst ... analyst rating remains 'Hold' with an average target well below current levels.
Extracted: $44.32Open source
AEHR / Aehr Test Systems, Inc. (NasdaqCM) - Forecast, Price Target ...
Search result #5
The average one-year price target for Aehr Test Systems, Inc. is $37.06. The forecasts range from a low of $21.21 to a high of $52.50. Read More.
Extracted: $37.06, $21.21, $52.50Open source
AEHR Stock Forecast: Analyst Ratings, Predictions & Price Target ...
Search result #8
Wall Street analysts have set a price target of $29.33, reflecting a 0.00% increase from the current stock price. What is the 2026 price prediction for AEHR?
Extracted: $29.33Open source
AEHR Stock Analysis & Price Target - In-Depth Research - Financhill
Search result #9
Price Target Downside. According to analysts' consensus price target of $31.67, Aehr Test Systems has an estimated downside of -28.55% from its current price ...
Extracted: $31.67Open source
Aehr Test Systems - Price & Consenus Chart - Zacks.com
Search result #3
AEHR: Aehr Test Systems - Price and Consensus Chart ... The consensus estimate is the average of all the current estimates made available by brokerage analysts.
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$85 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$60 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$25 / p=20% prob

Price $113 as of 2026-06-02

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 25%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull -25% · Base -47% · Bear -78%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-12-08
Ongoing bookings / design‑win announcements and quarterly cadence
Company filings and press releases have shown material quarterly bookings and targeted product announcements (bookings spike cited in recent releases); continued public bookings/design‑win disclosures over the next 12 months could drive short‑term re‑rating or volatility [#10-Q-2026-01-12] [#8-K-2026-04-07].
Prob 70.00% • Move 15.00% • Priced-in 50.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

AI production burn‑in Sonoma order => multi-quarter revenue ramp
2027-04-08
Aehr disclosed an initial order of its Sonoma production burn‑in systems for a lead hyperscale customer's next‑generation AI ASICs (press release); if shipments and follow‑on orders scale, this could materially lift bookings and revenue over the next 12 months [#PR-undated] [#IR-undated].
Prob 55% • Move 40% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Customer concentration and order timing
Cyclicality of semiconductor capital spending
Downside if bookings fail to convert to revenue
Execution/delivery delays for Sonoma systems

Peers

Symbol	Summary
CEVA	IP/licensing partner to AI and connectivity chip designers — useful comparator for content exposure to AI accelerator design wins.
AOSL	Power and analog semiconductor vendor with similar small‑cap market dynamics; comparable investor sensitivity to single large customers and design‑win cadence.
INDI	Company serving automotive/IoT semiconductors; similar growth/volatility profile among sub‑$1bn semiconductor names driven by design wins.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Aehr Test Systems Common (AEHR) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-04-08