ACIC

Rating buyAI Memo

American Coastal Insurance

As of 2026-01-16/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Analyst Coverage / Price-Target Updates • 2026-03-31

Expected move: +37%

Biggest risk

Bear: severe catastrophe losses, higher reinsurance costs, or adverse reserve development compress earnings and valuation toward the bear target.

Invalidation

Break below $8 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull: successful rate filings, limited catastrophe losses, and improved combined ratios drive multiple expansion and price appreciation toward the bull target.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-16

Base target

$14

p=60%

Bull target

$18

p=20%

Bear target

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

FY2025 / Q4 Earnings Release
Reinsurance and Underwriting Mix Improvement
Bull: successful rate filings, limited catastrophe losses, and improved combined ratios drive multiple expansion and price appreciation toward the bull target.

BearKey bullets

Regulatory or rate-approval delays in coastal states
Reserve inadequacy or adverse development
Rising reinsurance costs and reduced capacity

WatchKey bullets

Analyst Coverage / Price-Target Updates

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $14 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +73% / -23%

Vs latest close: Bull +73% · Base +37% · Bear -23%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $18 (p=20%)Base Target: $14 (p=60%)Bear Target: $8 (p=20%)

Commentary

Consensus is cautiously constructive with mid‑teens analyst targets clustered around $14 and recent initiations lifting attention [#SERP-1][#SERP-2]. Near-term sentiment hinges on earnings and catastrophe outcomes; longer-term tone depends on rate approvals and reserve trends [#SERP-4].

As of 2026-01-16 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bull: successful rate filings, limited catastrophe losses, and improved combined ratios drive multiple expansion and price appreciation toward the bull target.

Bear Case

Bear: severe catastrophe losses, higher reinsurance costs, or adverse reserve development compress earnings and valuation toward the bear target.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

FY2025 / Q4 Earnings Release
Reinsurance and Underwriting Mix Improvement

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-16Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$14.28

Range (USD)

$11.27 - $36.26

Count

Query: American Coastal Insurance Corp Common (ACIC) analyst consensus price target high low average

American Coastal Insurance (ACIC) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #1
According to projections from 1 analysts, the average 12-month price target for American Coastal Insurance is 14, with a high estimate of 14 and a low estimate ...
Open source
ACIC Intrinsic Valuation and Fundamental Analysis - Alpha Spread
Search result #2
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ACIC is 14.28 USD with a low forecast of 14.14 USD and a high forecast of 14.7 USD.
Extracted: $14.28, $14.14, $14.70Open source
American Coastal Insurance (ACIC) Price Targets
Search result #3
The forecasts for American Coastal Insurance Corporation (ACIC) range from a low of $14 to a high of $14. The average price target represents a increase of ...
Extracted: $14.00Open source
American Coastal Insurance Corporation: Target Price Consensus ...
Search result #4
American Coastal Insurance's Q2 revenue up 25.9% · Raymond James Initiates American Coastal Insurance With Outperform Rating, Price Target is $15 · Wells Fargo ...
Extracted: $15.00Open source
American Coastal Insurance Corporation (ACIC) - Yahoo Finance
Search result #5
Q2. FY25. 0. 20M. 40M. 60M. 80M. View More. Analyst Insights: ACIC. View More. Analyst Price Targets. 14.00. 14.00 Average. 11.11 Current. 14.00 High. Analyst ...
Open source
American Coastal Insurance stock forecast - ACIC - TipRanks
Search result #6
The average price target is ― with a high forecast of ― and a low forecast of ―. The average price target represents a ― change from the last price of $11.27.
Extracted: $11.27Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$18 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$14 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$8 / p=20% prob

Price $10 as of 2026-06-02

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 23%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +73% · Base +37% · Bear -23%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-03-31
Analyst Coverage / Price-Target Updates
Initiations and target revisions (e.g., Raymond James) can shift consensus and trading flows; assume updates within the quarter [#SERP-4].
Prob 60.00% • Move 8.00% • Priced-in 45.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

FY2025 / Q4 Earnings Release
2026-04-16
Quarterly results and guidance on underwriting margin and reserves; clustered analyst targets near $14 could amplify moves on beats/misses [#SERP-1][#SERP-2].
Prob 80% • Move 12% • Priced-in 35%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Reinsurance and Underwriting Mix Improvement
2027-01-16
Multi-quarter gains from better reinsurance terms, pricing in coastal lines, and retention could expand margins and support a higher multiple; conservatively timed to 12 months [#SERP-2].
Prob 50% • Move 40% • Priced-in 20%

Risks

Regulatory or rate-approval delays in coastal states
Reserve inadequacy or adverse development
Rising reinsurance costs and reduced capacity
Severe catastrophe losses in coastal exposure

Peers

Symbol	Summary
TRV	Diversified P&C insurer—useful comparator for underwriting-cycle and reserve dynamics.
HIG	Regional/national carrier with comparable product mix; informative on rate adequacy.
WRB	Specialty/commercial focus—peer for distribution and underwriting discipline.
PGR	Scale in personal lines—provides context on pricing power and retention.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: American Coastal Insurance Corp Common (ACIC) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-16

AI Stock Memo: ACIC - American Coastal Insurance - RankAlpha